Apple fell out of the top three domestic mobile phone shipments in the first quarter IDC: AI mobile phones will be nationalized in 2028

Finance Associated Press

2024-04-26 08:31Published on the official account of Cailianshe under Shanghai Poster Industry Group

"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" on April 26 (Reporter Huang Xinyi) IDC's latest report shows that in the first quarter of 2024, China's smartphone market shipped about 69.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. Among them, Honor ranked first with a market share of 17.1% in China. Huawei, on the other hand, has recovered rapidly since its return at the end of August last year, with a market share of 17.0% in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of more than 100%.

"The global terminal market has entered a state of recovery in the general direction. In 2024, the global smartphone market will ship about 1.2 billion, and it is expected to grow to a certain extent in the next few years, but the growth rate is limited. Wang Jiping, vice president of IDC China, said in an interview with the reporter of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, "In this context, more new technologies are needed. Especially this year, AI mobile phones have become an important factor for all manufacturers to stimulate market growth and development. ”

Judging from the ranking of the domestic mobile phone market in the first quarter, the competition between manufacturers is very fierce. Wang Jiping believes that mobile phone manufacturers with AI blessings, such as Honor, will perform better. At the same time, Huawei's re-entry into the Chinese market has disrupted the original overall pattern.

▍The device-side computing power of mobile phones will continue to increase

According to the data, Honor's market share in China in the first quarter was 17.1%, an increase of 13.2% year-on-year. Huawei's market share in the first quarter of this year was 17.0%, a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. Among them, Huawei's nova 12 series accounted for one-third of Huawei's quarterly shipments, but supply issues are still a key factor limiting Huawei's shipments.

OPPO continues to rank in the top three with a market share of 15.7%, Apple has a market share of 15.6%, and vivo ranks fifth with 14.6%.

In terms of the overall share of Android and iOS, the Android market increased by 9.3% year-on-year. Apple's shipments fell 6.6% year-on-year.

"Apple, like the global trend, has also seen a slight decline, which shows that there has been a certain shift in the domestic market, from the continuous pursuit of mobile phone iteration in the past few years to today's high-end market attracted by folding screens and AI mobile phones. Wang Jiping said.

As the craze of ChatGPT swept the world, artificial intelligence also detonated the mobile phone terminal market. Whether it is chip manufacturers, large model manufacturers, cloud service providers, and application providers, they have all joined this ecological transformation. Talking about the development trend of AI mobile phones, Wang Jiping said that the combination of devices and clouds has become a fundamental consensus. "Although the scale of the device-side model is smaller, the computing power is more timely and stable, and the personalized model can be customized for each person while ensuring security. ”

According to IDC's definition, the new generation of AI mobile phones is characterized by NPU computing power greater than 30TOPS.

Wang Jiping said that PCs and mobile phones will continue to strengthen computing power on the device side. "In the future, it is possible to reach 60 TOPS and 100 TOPS. The model will get bigger and bigger, and the consumer acceptance time will become shorter and the experience will become better and better. ”

Another consensus in the industry is that in the future, terminals will be distributed management, and computing power can be shared between terminals. "For example, in the home scenario, the PC may be the computing power center, and the mobile phone can quickly obtain computing power from the PC. Wang Jiping said.

▍AI models drive improvements in memory configuration and heat dissipation technologies

Since the amount of computation generated by the AI model in the inference process is very large, if it is landed on the mobile device on the device side, it will generate a very large amount of energy consumption. Therefore, how to balance performance and energy consumption has become one of the bottlenecks of the mobile phone side large model.

Wang Jiping believes that this means that the device-side large model will increase the requirements for the overall configuration of the mobile phone.

"The device-side model will drive a significant improvement in memory configuration. Most flagship phones currently have 12GB of RAM, while we advocate for 16GB. Heat dissipation technology should also be changed accordingly, for example, liquid cooling technology is more used on the end side, and new heat dissipation materials may become an important development direction in the future. ”

2023 is considered the first year of AI terminals, and major Android manufacturers are betting on AI. Wang Jiping believes that the focus of this year is to explore how AI terminals will develop. As all aspects of the end-to-end strategy become clearer, many scenarios will be implemented quickly, and consumers will find the real ROI (return on investment). This will further drive the growth of mid-to-high-end handsets and promote a further increase in the average unit price. After that, AI terminals will move from scenario-based to interactive, enter the stage of sublimation and popularization, and move towards universal adoption by 2028, which is the development path of AI terminals predicted by IDC. ”

However, the proportion of AI mobile phones is still not high, and it has not yet become the main factor driving the growth of the market. IDC predicts that global shipments of next-generation AI mobile phones are expected to reach 170 million units in 2024, accounting for 15% of overall smartphone shipments. Wang Jiping judged that in the long run, as AI mobile phones move from high-end to mainstream, their driving force for consumers to replace their phones will become greater. "More and more people are buying AI smartphones, which is also accelerating the process of replacing their phones, which will drive changes in the market to a certain extent. Wang Jiping said.

(Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily reporter Huang Xinyi)

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