Reference News Network reported on 25 April that the website of the bimonthly magazine "National Interest" recently published an article entitled "The Man Who Whispered to Washington the Future of the Middle East", in which Mohammad Suleiman, director of the Strategic Technology and Cyber Security Program of the Middle East Institute, a US think tank, and his research results were introduced. The full text is compiled as follows:
There is no shortage of foreign policy strategists in Washington, D.C., and relatively less well known are the behind-the-scenes manipulators known as the "Grey Cardinal."
These "men in gray" (usually men) are quiet, discreet, and accustomed to working behind the scenes. You may not often see or hear about the "Men in Grey", but you've probably heard about their ideas and seen their work put into practice.
One of the more visionaries in this group is Mohammed Suleiman, director of the Strategic Technology and Cybersecurity Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. While on the surface, Suleiman appears to be a minor figure with an inconspicuous title, this belies his actual importance. Suleiman's insights into the changing balance of power in the Middle East caught the attention of high-level decision-makers in the United States. In an increasingly divided and multipolar geopolitical environment, his insights are shaping the foreign policy of the U.S. government.
Suleiman's background is different from that of a typical person who specializes in foreign policy in Washington. He is a native of Cairo and grew up in Egypt, where he lived until his 20s. In Cairo, far from Washington's circles, he witnessed world events with a unique perspective. For Arab Muslims like Suleiman, the events in Kosovo, 9/11, and the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan are not just examples of problematic military interventions, but stories of disintegration and humanitarian catastrophe.
However, it was the Arab Spring that took place at the beginning of the 2010s that had the greatest impact on Suleiman, especially Egypt's own January 25 revolution. At first, Suleiman was an idealist who supported democratization, but he came to understand that the bigger obstacle to democratic reform was deep-rooted structural problems and conflicts of interest, not just a lack of political will.
While studying engineering at the Egyptian Aviation Institute, Suleiman began to accept and even willingly adopt the brutal logic of permanent crisis, developing a worldview that justified practical politics.
Suleiman moved to Washington when he was about 25 years old. In his view, what the Middle East needs is a stable balance of power that has been lost after the US invasion of Iraq and Syria plunged into civil war. And this instability is characterized by endless periodic conflicts. For the inhabitants of the region, this means war, economic fragility and untold suffering. This is devastating for U.S. foreign policy and national interests. Long-term instability in the Middle East bothers Washington, and given that the United States is trying to stop prioritizing the Middle East in favor of the "Indo-Pacific," long-term instability in the Middle East will complicate U.S. efforts in this area. The ongoing conflict in Gaza and the escalating tensions in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea are textbook examples of this dynamic.
But how can the Middle East be stable?
Eventually, Suleiman realized that the solution lay in reimagining the nominal borders of the Middle East, extending them to include India. By extension, combined with the redefinition of the Middle East as "West Asia," it is possible to link Europe's periphery with Asia's emerging centers of power, thus creating a trans-regional system. In it, Turkey, Iran, and India will take center stage, reasserting the balance of power and laying the groundwork for stronger economic integration.
For many, especially Americans, who prefer a static concept of geopolitical borders, this is a radical departure from common sense. In practice, however, Suleiman's "revival" is deeply rooted in historical precedent.
The Middle Eastern empires that preceded European hegemony had a broader understanding of the concept of "the Middle East" than most people do today. For example, the medieval Mamluk sultanate was very familiar with the political and economic situation in Europe and Asia due to its control of the spice trade.
Nicholas Gworthdev, a professor of national security at the U.S. Naval Military Academy and editor of Globe Quarterly, believes that Suleiman's work "forces us to think about how relationships are formed, rather than shoehorning them into existing organizational frameworks."
Gwosdev added that Suleiman's study is also "very important, especially at a time when U.S. foreign and defense agencies are grappling with the realities of regionalism." I think he's one of the 'godfathers' of the transoceanic concept. At the Naval Academy, we develop the concept of transoceans to assess how the linkages around trade are developing, and to teach those leaders in the field of national security to see the big picture of the world through the networks formed by these trade corridor connections."
It was in this context that Suleiman's identity as one of the "men in gray" began to become apparent. While his stated focus is on technology and cybersecurity in the Middle East, his actual research is much larger. His position at the Middle East Institute, coupled with a management position at McLarty Consulting, and his status as a David Rockefeller Fellow on the Trilateral Commission, gave him access to governmental, business, and intellectual leaders in the Western world, the Middle East, and around the globe. His position, and his work as a business consultant, has meant that his countless papers and presentations have had significant audiences, allowing him to very skillfully bring the audience's strategic thinking closer to his own worldview. His disciples and mentees – whether at the Middle East Institute, McLarty Consulting, or other institutions he was involved in – would actively promote his West Asian philosophy. McLarty also noted that "Mohammed's analysis clearly and clearly shows that he is basing himself on the 'art of possibility' rather than wishful thinking".
Five years after he began, Suleiman's efforts have borne fruit. His scholarly research and writings are considered the basis for the establishment of the U.S.-India-Israel-Arabia Quad Mechanism (I2U2), a form of multilateral cooperation between India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. As he articulated in an influential paper published in 2021, the goal is to advance the broader "India-Abraham Alliance."
Although this alliance was originally formed by the four countries of the United States, India, Israel and Afghanistan, it later included other countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In due course, the I2U2+ alliance will reshape the geopolitical and economic landscape of Western Asia, with the ultimate goal of being linked to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). The end result, Suleiman said at the time, would be to create a framework that would bring together countries on the periphery of Eurasia, leading to significant regional political stability and greater economic integration.
Events since 2021 have further validated Suleiman's theoretical framework. The most definite sign of this came in early May 2023, when Jake Sullivan, Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Affairs, laid out the logic of the Biden administration's support for the I2U2 form of cooperation. Sullivan expressed a similar view to Suleiman. The "basic concept" of the work, he said, is to connect South Asia, the Middle East and the United States in a way that promotes our economic, technological and diplomatic developments. Other initiatives, such as India's participation in the Greece-Cyprus-Israel trilateral cooperation and the establishment of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, are further evidence that Suleiman's framework is being welcomed at the highest levels of U.S. and regional foreign policy.
"Suleiman's work is now very important for understanding how the international system is changing, and how the two main centers of gravity – Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific – are connected by the 'Indo-Abraham' corridor," Gwosdev explained. ”