With the release of real estate development investment and sales data in the first quarter, real estate development investment in the first quarter fell by 9.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the area and amount of residential sales decreased by 23.4% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively. The property market seems to be going through a cold winter. Behind the year-on-year decline in investment, the decline in residential sales area and sales value, this series of figures is not only a reflection of market volatility, but also a subtle psychological game between home buyers and developers.
In this era of high information transparency, every move in the property market affects the hearts of hundreds of millions of people. The hot market scene of "following the trend and buying and housing prices rising" in the past has now been replaced by a cautious wait-and-see. Buyers are no longer blindly chasing the rise, but more rationally analyzing the market trend, and developers are no longer easy to push, for fear of losing a lot in the price war. The embodiment of this "herd effect" in the property market can be said to be a sign of market maturity and consumer awakening.
However, this effect also poses a number of problems. During the hot market, people are often infected by the frenzy of the market and buy in the trend, pushing house prices to climb. In the cold market, when the market shows signs of cooling, buyers begin to hesitate, fearing that house prices will continue to fall, so the wait-and-see sentiment spreads, leading to a further decline in sales. In order to recoup the funds, developers have to reduce prices and promotions, but in this way, it has intensified the wait-and-see mentality of home buyers, forming a vicious circle.
Against this backdrop, both home buyers and developers are caught in a kind of "prisoner's dilemma". Buyers are worried that it will be expensive, and developers are worried that they will not be able to sell. Both sides are waiting for the other to take that step first, but often what they are waiting for is a further chill in the market.
Breaking this impasse will require a multifaceted effort. First of all, the government should strengthen the regulation of the property market, stabilize market expectations, and avoid excessive market volatility. Secondly, developers should pay more attention to product quality and service quality to enhance the competitiveness of real estate to attract more buyers. At the same time, home buyers should also strengthen their financial knowledge and risk awareness, and rationally deal with changes in the property market.
Of course, the market itself has its ability to self-regulate. After a period of desertion, with the gradual stabilization of policies and the release of market demand, the property market is expected to gradually recover. However, in this process, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the negative impact of the "herd effect" to avoid overreaction in the market.
In addition, we must also see that the changes in the property market are not only a number game, but also a reflection of the social mentality. In general, the "herd effect" under the cooling of the property market is a complex and profound psychological warfare. It tests the wisdom and courage of home buyers and developers, as well as the maturity and stability of the whole society.
It is worth noting that in the context of the current property market adjustment, the land supply plan of each city has become an important indicator to observe the future market trend. Changes in land supply often indicate the supply and demand pattern of the property market in the future, which in turn affects housing prices and the mentality of home buyers. Therefore, for the majority of home buyers, paying attention to the land supply plan of the city can provide a valuable reference for future home purchase decisions.
We need to be clear that there is a strong link between land supply and property demand. When the supply of land is abundant, developers have more options and the market competition is relatively fierce, which helps to keep house prices stable or moderately declining. Conversely, if the supply of land is tightened, the cost of land acquisition by developers may rise, which will be passed on to housing prices, resulting in increased upward pressure on housing prices.
Judging from the current situation, some cities have begun to adjust their land supply plans and reduce land supply. This change is not accidental, but based on the comprehensive consideration of the current property market inventory, market demand and policy regulation. In the context of the backlog of inventory in the property market and weak market demand, appropriately reducing land supply will help alleviate market pressure and create conditions for a smooth transition of the property market.
However, this adjustment of the land supply plan is not an overnight process. It often takes a period of observation and evaluation before it can gradually determine the future supply strategy. Therefore, for home buyers, it is necessary to keep an eye on the market and observe the changing trend of the market for 1-2 years.
During this period, the market may be in a stalemate or flat. On the one hand, developers need to digest the existing inventory to reduce the financial pressure, and on the other hand, buyers are also waiting for the right time to buy a home and are reluctant to sell lightly. This confrontation between supply and demand makes the market show a relatively stable situation.
However, over time, market supply and demand are bound to change. When the land supply tightens to a certain point, the number of listings on the market will gradually decrease, while the demand for homes may remain relatively stable or increase slightly. At this time, the relationship between supply and demand will be reversed, and the market will usher in a new turnaround.
Finally, there is a summary of one sentence: paying attention to the changes in the city's land supply plan is an important basis for judging the future trend of the property market. By observing and analyzing the changing trend of land supply, we can have a rough prediction of the future direction of the market.