Recently, the Russia-Kazakhstan Delimitation Commission held a meeting to further discuss the issue of demarcation on the basis of the final draft previously agreed upon by the two sides on the demarcation. The draft mentioned here was reached only after 131 discussions by the Russian-Kazakh demarcation commission, which is enough to see the complexity of the Russian-Kazakh border issue.
There are three reasons why Kazakhstan is now actively promoting border demarcation.
First of all, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia has been held back by the West, mired in war and unable to extricate itself, and has no time to take care of the rear. Kazakhstan, which has always been regarded by the outside world as Russia's "backyard", did not stand with Russia, but wanted to take the opportunity to get rid of Russia's control and increase exchanges with the United States and the West.
But in this way, Kazakhstan is also worried that it will cause Russia's dissatisfaction, and then suffer retaliation from Russia. Especially given that there are a large number of ethnic Russians living in the north of Kazakhstan, which cannot afford incitement, Kazakhstan fears that Russia is likely to act in the same way on the grounds of "protecting Russians abroad" in the disputed area.
[Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev]
In addition, Kazakhstan's abundant oil and natural gas resources are very likely to become the focus of contention among major powers, and Kazakhstan will inevitably face the test of choosing sides, and if the border issue is not decided, it will easily be manipulated by Russia. Therefore, Kazakhstan began to speed up the process of demarcating the border with Russia in order to safeguard its sovereignty and rights and interests.
Second, after learning that he might be Russia's next target, Kazakhstan strengthened its determination to demarcate the border with Russia.
Earlier this month, an audio recording of what appears to be a Russian State Duma deputy Gurulev was leaked. In this recording, Gurulev lashes out at Kazakhstan, arguing that it has long stood on the opposite side of the Kremlin and deserves to be "punished." In addition to occupying a place in Russian politics, Gurulev also has a military background, having served as the deputy commander of Russia's Southern Military District, although his ideas cannot influence Putin's decision-making, but it can reflect that the prejudice against Kazakhstan in Russia has become deeper and deeper.
After learning that he was targeted, Kazakhstan must have been on the edge of his seat, after all, there is a 7,000-kilometer border between Russia and Kazakhstan. Moreover, if what Gurulev said is true, Kazakhstan is likely to become Russia's next target, so no matter which angle it is considered, Kazakhstan must prepare as early as possible.
[Foreign media reported that Russia will target Kazakhstan]
Moreover, part of the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is territorial disputes, and Kazakhstan is speeding up border demarcation to prevent similar disputes that may arise in the future.
At a recent meeting, Tokayev made it clear that in light of the complexity of the current global geopolitical environment, the preservation of national security has become even more important. He suggested that Kazakhstan should analyze the challenges that pose a major threat to national security and implement the necessary preventive measures. Although it is not elaborated, it is known that Russia is a focus of attention among several factors that may threaten the security of Kazakhstan at the moment.
In fact, as early as after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan hoped to resolve the border issue as soon as possible and clarify the stability of the disputed territory, but Russia was not in a hurry, resulting in the two sides never being able to reach a consensus. It was not until 2007 that the work on the demarcation of the border between Russia and Kazakhstan began in earnest, and the "Kazakh-Russian Joint Border Demarcation Commission" was established to discuss the demarcation of the border.
And the reason why Russia deliberately slows down the pace is actually to be able to take Kazakhstan at any time. But the so-called plan can't catch up with the changes, and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has allowed Kazakhstan to find a great opportunity to get rid of Russia and begin to accelerate the demarcation of the border with Russia.
[Blinken meets with Central Asian countries]
However, it should be emphasized here that even if the issue of border demarcation between Russia and Kazakhstan is supported by legal documents, it cannot be said that Kazakhstan can rest easy, and the current situation in Ukraine is a good example. For example, in September last year, four regions in eastern Ukraine joined the Russian Federation through referendums. And before that, Russia also managed to recover Crimea.
Although in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the demarcation of the border between Kazakhstan and Russia is not a major event, what is reflected behind it is the weakening of Russia's influence in Central Asia. This situation is even more obvious in the economic field. For example, Kazakhstan has recently interacted frequently with China, and plans to send people to visit China, so that it has begun to find a new way out for itself, and at the same time has deepened its exchanges with Western countries. In the long run, Russia's position in Central Asia will inevitably be greatly reduced.
In fact, the root cause is the bane planted by the Russian side itself. Since the end of the Cold War, despite the close relations between the CIS countries and Russia, there has been a great deal of cooperation. But these cooperation has always been led by Russia, and Russia does not want other countries to come and get involved in Central Asia. For Central Asian countries, although cooperation with Russia can bring benefits, it will inevitably be controlled by others, and they feel that they have not won the respect that sovereign countries deserve, and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is just an excuse for these countries to alienate Russia.