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The price of gold has fallen again! The big banks warn of the risks of gold investment! The price of gold has reached a new low in the past 20 days

author:Puhua Research Institute of China Research Institute

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The price of gold has fallen again! The big banks warn of the risks of gold investment! The price of gold has reached a new low in the past 20 days

China Research Network

According to the information provided, the international gold price did fall on Tuesday. Specifically, the June gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $2,342.1 an ounce, a decrease of 0.18%. This indicates that gold has reached a new low in the last two decades.

Gold price fluctuations are affected by a variety of factors, including but not limited to the US dollar exchange rate, global economic situation, inflation expectations, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment and expectations. This decline may be due to some specific economic event or a change in market sentiment.

For investors, the volatility of gold prices means that investment risks and opportunities coexist. When the price of gold falls, some investors may choose to buy gold in the expectation of a gain when the price rises in the future. However, investors should also be aware of the risks that may arise from fluctuations in gold prices and carefully consider various factors when making investment decisions.

In addition, changes in the price of gold can also affect gold-related industries, such as jewellery manufacturing, mining, etc. Therefore, the decline in gold prices not only affects the interests of investors, but may also have an impact on the operation of related industries.

In general, the decline in the international gold price is part of the operation of the market, and investors and related industries need to pay close attention to the market dynamics in order to make appropriate decisions. At the same time, because the volatility of gold prices is affected by a variety of complex factors, forecasts of its future direction need to be treated with caution.

According to the display released by the China Research Institute of Puhua Industry Research Institute:

On April 15, China Construction Bank issued an announcement on the market risk reminder of precious metal trading business, pointing out that the recent fluctuations in domestic and foreign precious metal prices have intensified and the market risk has increased, so customers should invest rationally, improve the risk prevention awareness of precious metal trading business such as personal gold accumulation, reasonably control positions, and pay attention to the changes in positions and margin balances in a timely manner.

Previously, China Construction Bank and many other banks adjusted the minimum amount and limit of accumulation funds based on changes in the gold market. On March 6, China Construction Bank announced that from 9:10 on March 7, the starting amount of the bank's personal gold accumulation business will be raised from 500 yuan to 600 yuan. Since then, Bank of Ningbo, Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Ping An Bank, etc., have successively issued announcements to raise the minimum deposit amount of accumulation funds ranging from 50 yuan to 100 yuan.

In addition to banks, market risk control measures have strengthened in the past two weeks. The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on April 10 stating that from April 12 (including the night trading on April 11), the trading limit will be implemented for gold futures varieties, and the maximum number of open positions in gold intraday trading is 2,800 lots, but the number of open positions in hedging transactions and market-making transactions is not subject to this limit.

Subsequently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on April 16 stating that from the closing settlement on April 17, the price limit of gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted from 6% and 7% to 8%, the margin ratio of hedging transactions will be adjusted from 7% and 8% to 9%, and the margin ratio of speculative transactions will be adjusted from 8% and 9% to 10%.

On April 18, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued another notice that from April 22 (that is, the night trading on April 19), the intraday closing transaction fee of gold futures AU2406 contract will be adjusted to 30 yuan/hand, and the intraday closing transaction fee of AU2408 contract will be adjusted to 6 yuan/hand. The trading fee for the silver futures AG2408 contract is adjusted to 0.3/10,000 of the transaction amount.

At the same time, the Exchange issued a notice on doing a good job in market risk control, reminding all relevant units that there are many uncertainties in the market in the near future, and asking member units and investors to do a good job in risk prevention, rational investment, and jointly maintain the smooth operation of the market.

Recently, a number of banks have issued reminder announcements on the market risks of precious metal trading business, reminding customers to pay attention to the risks caused by the fluctuation of precious metal prices. Previously, some banks have adjusted the starting amount and limit of the accumulation fund business according to the changes in the gold market. At the same time, consumer complaints in the physical gold market have also increased significantly. According to data from a complaint platform, there are more than 34,000 complaints related to "gold", mainly focusing on product quality, publicity authenticity, service fees, etc.

For consumers, the hotter the market, the more they need to think calmly, and they need to be sharp-eyed in the face of investment and consumption promotion of renovation.

Gold, as a precious metal with both investment and consumption attributes, undoubtedly needs to be considered from many aspects when buying gold-related products. Among them, the gold accumulation fund business, as a unique investment method, has attracted much attention in recent years. This business is carried out by commercial banks to open an accumulation account according to the customer's application, which is used to record the weight of gold accumulated by the customer in a certain period of time. In this round of rising gold prices, accumulator products have become the new favorites of investors due to their lower minimum purchase amount and higher flexibility. However, any investment comes with risks, and the MPF business is no exception. Before purchasing a bank's accumulation fund products, investors should carefully conduct a risk assessment, fully understand their own risk tolerance, and make rational decisions based on their specific needs for gold.

Investors who prefer physical gold also need to be wary. Before purchasing, you can choose those well-known and reputable brands, ensure that the merchant has a formal business license and relevant qualifications, and confirm the legitimacy and security of the transaction. When buying gold, consumers should pay close attention to the details of the product's purity, fineness and workmanship, which have a direct impact on the value of gold. In addition, you should also take the initiative to ask about the pricing method, replacement conditions and possible processing costs involved in gold jewelry, so as to fully understand the purchase cost, and at the same time, be sure to keep the after-sales vouchers, such as invoices, appraisal certificates, etc. These certificates are not only proof of purchase, but also can help investors protect their rights and interests in the event of disputes in the future.

All in all, both investors and consumers should maintain a rational understanding of the risk of gold price fluctuations in the current gold market. Investors should prudently analyze the risks and returns based on their own actual situation, and pursue stable investment returns on the premise of ensuring the safety of assets.

Statistics from the China Gold Association show that in the first three quarters of 2023, the domestic raw gold output will be 271.248 tons, an increase of 1.261 tons compared with the same period in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 0.47%, of which 214.866 tons of gold from gold minerals and 56.382 tons of non-ferrous by-product gold will be completed. In addition, in the first three quarters of 2023, the gold output of imported raw materials was 96.277 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.48%, and if this part of the imported raw materials was added, the country produced a total of 367.525 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 3.14%.

In the first three quarters, the national gold consumption was 835.07 tons, an increase of 7.32% compared to the same period in 2022. Among them: 552.04 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year increase of 5.72%; 222.37 tonnes of gold bars and coins, up 15.98% year-on-year; industrial and other gold was 60.66 tons, down 5.53% year-on-year.

In terms of gold prices, which investors are more concerned about, in the first three quarters, the downward pressure on the global economy continued to accumulate, geopolitical conflicts continued, and international gold prices fluctuated at high levels. At the end of September, as the market's expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates increased, the international gold price retreated sharply to the level at the beginning of the year, but remained at a historical high. At the end of September, the London spot gold fixing price was $1,870.50 per ounce, up 1.48% from the beginning of the year; Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 gold closed at 447.10 yuan / gram at the end of September, up 8.78% from the beginning of the year.

Recently, as international gold futures and spot prices hit a record high, domestic gold consumption has also been rising. New York gold futures soared to $2,152.3 per ounce, London spot gold hit an intraday high of $2,144.68 per ounce, and the price of some domestic brand gold jewellery was as high as 630 yuan per gram.

The rise in gold prices is affected by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the trend of the US dollar and other factors. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks bought around 800 tonnes of gold in the first three quarters, an increase of 14% compared to the same period last year, which was also one of the factors driving gold prices higher.

According to the report "Insights into the Gold Investment Needs of China's High-net-worth Individuals" released by the World Gold Council, "value preservation" and "safety" have become the primary goals of wealth management for high-net-worth individuals in mainland China. "For investors who have already allocated to gold, the potential future appreciation of gold, portfolio diversification and safe-haven functions are the top three factors driving their purchases. ”

Looking ahead to 2024, the World Gold Council believes that the possible intensification of geopolitical conflicts in some regions and the increase in gold purchases by many central banks will support the future trend of international gold prices.

As for the distribution trend of reserve assets in the next five years, most of the central banks interviewed at the forum believe that US dollar assets will decline, and the proportion of assets such as RMB and gold will increase.

The gold industry research report aims to start from the strategy of national economic and industrial development, analyze the future policy trend of gold and the development trend of the regulatory system, tap the market potential of the gold industry, and provide a vivid description of market changes from multiple perspectives such as industrial scale, industrial structure, regional structure, market competition, and industrial profitability based on in-depth research on key market segments, and clear development direction. Predict the future market outlook of the gold business to help clients clear the policy fog and find investment opportunities in the gold industry.

In the fierce market competition, whether enterprises and investors can make timely and effective market decisions is the key to success. The report accurately grasps the unmet market demand and trends of the industry, effectively avoids the investment risks of the industry, consolidates or expands the corresponding strategic target markets more efficiently, and firmly grasps the initiative of industry competition.

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