In the past two years, Indian Prime Minister Modi, who is ambitious, put forward the campaign slogan of making India a "developed country" in 2047 on the 14th of this month, and as soon as Modi's words fell, Japan gave a "big gift" that made Indians ecstatic.
It turns out that Japan's continuous depreciation in the past two months has caused Japan's GDP to fall again and again, and the International Monetary Fund predicts that India is likely to surpass Japan a year ahead of schedule and become the world's fourth largest economy. This is similar to a popular Internet phrase in recent years: "all rely on peers".
Why do you say this? India is about to surpass Japan and will be able to surpass Germany in the future, but it does not depend on India's own ability. You must know that China's GDP surpassed Germany and Japan step by step, and that relied on real efforts. Strictly speaking, when our GDP surpassed Japan's, Japan was still at its peak, and both the integrity and advancement of GDP and industrial structure were much higher than now.
Looking at Germany, without the support of Russian pipeline natural gas, the increased cost of energy alone has dragged the whole of Germany into a "technical recession", on this basis, China's new energy vehicles with a tiger down the mountain, quickly occupy the global auto market, so that the German auto manufacturing industry actually came to the edge of the cliff.
In this case, I wouldn't be surprised that India is going to overtake Japan in 2025 and Germany in 2026, and I wouldn't be surprised that it will even overtake China in 2026.
It is an open secret that the countries of the Western world, led by the United States, have water in their GDP, and there is only a lot more water in India's GDP. The reason why the United States, India and other countries are doing this is not only to make their domestic people feel that their country's development is good, but also to create the illusion to the world that "a certain country has great development potential" or "a certain country is about to collapse".
Now, the United States is creating a false impression that "India has great potential for development" and "will soon surpass China" in order to put obstacles in the way of China, which is still a developing country. It is not uncommon for the United States to inject water into India's GDP and surpass China to become the world's second largest when necessary. After all, it is obvious to all what kind of position India has on the side of the United States.
Last year, Indian Prime Minister Modi visited the United States, and US President Biden, which was called a "meeting and hating to be late", the US government poured out its heart and lungs, and the Taiwan authorities could not ask for MQ-9B drones, and the US government approved 31 of them to the Indian government at one time, and also attached a large number of supporting weapons.
To put it bluntly, first, because of the geopolitical relations between China and India and India's domestic political environment, the United States has a very important grip on China in the Asia-Pacific region, and second, because India is easy to control, it is praised and carried away in three or two sentences, and it is played by the West.
Therefore, this time the International Monetary Fund released the news that India's GDP surpassed Japan's by a year ahead of schedule, and perhaps it was also a farce led by the United States, building momentum for India and Indian Prime Minister Modi.
But in the American game, India cannot always be the winner. Without actual industrial capacity and industrial base, India's GDP is nothing more than a castle in the air, and when India is no longer a pawn of the United States, it will become a "stepping stone" for other countries.
In the final analysis, once such a thing as GDP is detached from reality, it does not even have a basic reference value, and it is a joke at best.