On the one hand, the festival is slow to cash, the consumption is under pressure, and the performance of slaughtering enterprises is less than expected; on the other hand, the slaughter end of the slaughter sentiment is differentiated, the market has a strong pig subscription mentality, and the breeding end of the small and medium-sized pigs is reluctant to sell, and the north and south regions, the daily procurement of slaughtering enterprises is not difficult!
According to data analysis, on April 26, the price of pigs fell by 0.01 yuan / catty, and the price of slaughtering enterprises was about 7.47 yuan / catty, and the pig market continued to be stable and weak.
However, from the slaughterhouse operating rate, slaughtering enterprises downstream orders have improved slightly, the operating rate has rebounded slightly, due to the approaching long holiday, by the pre-holiday slaughtering enterprise stocking demand increase, in the short term, pig prices still have the opportunity to rise, I personally believe that the end of April pig prices are likely to maintain a strong trend!
As for the prospect of pig prices in May, from a rational point of view, the market may be dominated by "weak first and then strong".
Although, in May, the increase in the pig slaughter plan is not large, but the average weight of pigs slaughtered or will increase, and the supply of fat pigs will dominate, which may have a certain negative impact on the market!
After all, after May Day, the consumption inertia fell, and the temperature rose to further reduce the consumption of fat pigs! Superimposed, at the end of April, there was a wide range of precipitation weather process in the southern region, resulting in the early stage of pig slaughter blocked, pig passive pressure on the fence, and by the high temperature and humid environment, the risk of pig farm disease risk pressure or will increase, the market or the risk of concentrated pig sales!
However, after entering the middle and late months, with the downward shift of the center of gravity of pig prices, the market bullish outlook mentality is not reduced, guided by emotions, the breeding end of the price mentality or will become stronger, part of the secondary fattening or will be re-entered, which may have a certain support for pig prices, after mid to late May, pig prices or will fluctuate higher, the market will also usher in the pig cycle into the upward stage of the "inflection point"!
Refined oil market: oil price adjustment is imminent, and price reduction has entered the "countdown......
In the international crude oil market, according to the data, overnight crude oil, WTI crude oil was quoted at $82.81, down $0.55, Brent crude oil was quoted at $88.02, down $0.4;
As we all know, the adjustment of domestic oil prices is based on the changes in crude oil prices in the three places, and the adjustment is carried out in accordance with the cycle of 10 working days with reference to the rate of change of crude oil! The oil price adjustment time will start at 24 o'clock on 29 April, and this time, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to be "lowered." The countdown to the second oil price drop in 2024 has begun......
According to the statistics, due to the decline in overnight crude oil quotations, on the 7th working day of this round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil is -2.03%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to fall by 95 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 92 gasoline and 95 gasoline is estimated to drop by about 0.08 yuan/liter, according to the volume of 50 liters of private cars, residents can fill up a tank of oil, and it is estimated that they can save 4 yuan.
On the one hand, the easing of relations between Israel and Iran may alleviate the risk of geopolitical tensions spillover and accelerate the return of the crude oil market to rationality, some institutions predict that Brent crude oil is expected to be lowered by 5~10 US dollars / barrel, and the upper limit may be difficult to rise to 90 US dollars / barrel;
On the other hand, the International Energy Agency predicts that due to the rapid development of global electric vehicles, the sales of electric vehicles may reach 17 million units this year, an increase of 3 million units from 23 years, which is bound to suppress the demand for crude oil consumption and alleviate the supply pressure caused by OPEC+ production cuts;
However, the international geopolitical tension is still obvious, Israel still has plans to strike Rafah, and at the same time, Israel continues to attack northern Gaza, and the geopolitical tension is still supportive for the crude oil market!
Superimposed, last week, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, while the U.S. manufacturing data was sluggish, and the market's expectations for the Fed to restart interest rate cuts in June increased again, which also had some support for the crude oil market!
Therefore, in the short term, international oil prices may maintain a high level of volatility, in this cycle, the domestic crude oil rate of change or will continue to run negatively, oil prices may fall or will be the general trend, however, the specific decline or will not be as expected!
The author will also continue to pay attention to the development of the market, timely to make a forecast for you, for the time being, remind you that the new phase of gasoline and diesel prices are expected to be lowered, tell each other, the price adjustment time will be carried out at 24 o'clock next Monday night!
Attached is the price of No. 92/No. 95 gasoline at gas stations in various provinces and cities across the country on April 26