Lai Qingde made his latest statement on cross-strait relations on the afternoon of 23 July, claiming that he would take peace as his goal. It has been learned that Lai Qingde made these remarks in front of a delegation of US congressmen visiting Taiwan on the same day. In terms of time, US Secretary of State Blinken was rushing to Chinese mainland on a special plane at that time. #军史观察团#
It is worth noting that when Lai Ching-te inspected the Taiwan military not long ago, he demanded that the Taiwan military be ready to fight 24 hours a day. When he took the initiative to mention the word peace, there was a noticeable change in tone. So, why did Lai Qingde change his mind at this time?
Before Blinken's visit to China, the United States successively hyped up topics such as China's so-called "overcapacity" and so-called support for Russia, trying to create "bargaining chips" for Blinken's visit to China. In other words, Blinken came to Chinese mainland this time, obviously hoping to achieve certain results. This can also be seen from Blinken's visit to China with US officials in charge of anti-narcotics and other departments. After Blinken arrived in Shanghai, he posted on social platforms that anti-drug cooperation was one of the first issues to be solved during the trip.
Based on this situation, the US side sent people to Taiwan on the occasion of Blinken's visit to China, I am afraid that there are two purposes. First, the Taiwan issue is also one of the bargaining chips used by Blinken's visit to China to raise the asking price, and the United States wants to use it to prove that it has always had so-called influence in the Taiwan region. Second, Lai Qingde's posture of being ready for battle before Blinken's visit to China is obviously worried about losing the support of the United States. On the surface, it seems that the trip is to appease Lai Qingde, but in fact, it is more to knock the latter to ensure that there will be no changes in the Taiwan Strait.
We can understand that Lai Qingde's softening of tone should be mainly aimed at currying favor with the United States. Most of the reason why the word "peace" is highlighted is that it is deliberately said to the mainland in order to seek the PLA to reduce its activities in the direction of the Taiwan Strait. In this way, Lai Qingde can avoid falling into a dilemma. In the face of the PLA's actions, if Lai Qingde does nothing, it will inevitably shake the basic plate of his green battalion, and if it continues to be strong, it will be in opposition to the United States. Therefore, calling for peace has become Lai Qingde's only choice to temporarily stabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Obviously, however, as long as Lai Qingde does not fundamentally give up his "Taiwan independence" proposition, such stability is nothing but an unrealistic illusion. On the one hand, many departments on the mainland have solemnly stated long ago that we will resolutely fight "independence" and promote reunification, so the change in Lai Qingde's tone will not stop us from pushing forward the process of cross-strait reunification. On the other hand, in the final analysis, Lai Qingde is still acting in accordance with the requirements of the United States. According to this logic, if Blinken's visit to China is empty-handed, the United States may use the "Taiwan card" to hype up in order to put pressure on Chinese mainland. Perhaps, in order to avoid changes in the Taiwan Strait, they may still not allow Lai Qingde to escalate their provocations, but no matter whether they send people to Taiwan or sell arms to Taiwan, as long as the United States continues to "support Taiwan" in its own way, the "Taiwan independence" stance of Lai Qingde and his ilk will always be firm.
Therefore, we did not show much reaction to Lai Qingde's change of tone. However, in response to some recent hot issues on both sides of the strait on 24 July, the mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office pointed out sharply that the vast number of Taiwan compatriots must clearly understand the danger of the DPP authorities colluding with external forces by "seeking independence by force." In addition, spokesperson Zhu Fenglian once again warned the United States by name, demanding that the latter implement its commitment not to support "Taiwan independence" into action, especially to stop arming the Taiwan region.
In other words, the United States wants to create a good atmosphere for Blinken's visit to China by knocking Lai Qingde to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, but it will not work. As long as the United States does not take concrete actions to support "one China", it will be unrealistic to manage the so-called differences between China and the United States. However, Lai Ching-te's manipulation of words cannot deceive the mainland, nor can he deceive the broad masses of Taiwan compatriots.
It can also be seen from the recent visits to the mainland by Ma Ying-jeou, Hong Xiuzhu, and others that the DPP authorities are absolutely unable to stop cross-strait exchanges and to block calls for peaceful reunification between the two sides of the strait. Lai Qingde's manipulation of peace is obviously not the mainstream public opinion on the island. When the United States recently announced that it would provide military aid to Taiwan, the DPP authorities also expressed their gratitude in a high-profile manner. Lai Qingde's slogan of peace cannot conceal the DPP authorities' willingness to become pawns of external forces.
In short, the US side must be clear that the Taiwan issue has always been the reddest red line in Sino-US relations, and any attempt to bargain with China on the Taiwan issue will only worsen Sino-US relations. As for the DPP authorities, no matter whether they soften their attitude or maintain a hard-line attitude, as long as they refuse to give up their "Taiwan independence" stance and support cross-strait reunification, it will be impossible for the PLA to stop its action of fighting "independence" and promoting reunification in the Taiwan Strait.