Public Offering China Research Group | DingDing
Editing, co-ordinating| Jamie
制作 | Jessica
Although Cai Songsong's road to public offering has come to an end, he has left a strong mark in the history of public offering, and he has selected most of the good semiconductor companies. ”
From February 2019 to February 2019, Cai Songsong has managed a total of 5 funds, including Sino Growth, Sino Hexin, Sino Positive Return A, Sino Optimal Allocation A, and Sino Innovation Drive A, with returns of 71.70%, 79.98%, -1.84%, 6.73%, and -5.94% respectively.
He selected a number of good companies in the semiconductor industry, such as GigaDevice, which took over the heavy position of Sino Analytica in the first quarter of growth, and encountered the semiconductor industry in 2019, which brought good returns to the fund.
But he later had a heavy position in Zhuo Sheng Wei, and the more he fell, the more he bought and even bought the card line, and the actual controller of Zhuo Sheng Micro completed part of the cash-out, but it was controversial. Reviewing his investment path, his operation of the Shanghai silicon industry is also suspected of having a high-level takeover.
17 quarters of GigaDevice
In February 2019, Cai Songsong was "fledgling" and took over the management of Sino Analytica's growth. In the fund's 2019 first quarter report, GigaDevice appeared in the top ten heavy stocks, and since then, during his tenure, he has been heavy in this company, which is one of the stocks held by Cai Songsong for the longest time.
GigaDevice is a leading memory chip and MCU manufacturer in China, the world's third and China's No. 1 NOR Flash manufacturer, and has ranked first among the 32 domestic MCU manufacturers for seven consecutive years, with a cumulative shipment of more than 1 billion GD32 series, currently ranking seventh in the world.
2019 is the starting point for GigaDevice to accelerate its development.
According to GigaDevice's 2018 annual report, the company's total operating income was 2.246 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 495 million yuan. By 2022, the annual report data shows that the company's total operating income is 8.130 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.053 billion yuan.
Judging from its stock price, it was at the beginning of 2019 that a wave of rise was initiated, from 31.14 yuan / share at the end of 2018 to 102.74 yuan / share at the end of 2019. In July 2021, it hit an all-time high of 232.13 yuan per share.
Since Cai Songsong began to take over Sino Analytica, he has been heavily positioned in GigaDevice for 17 consecutive quarters. Sino Analytica's growth has also reaped good returns.
When the downward cycle of memory chips came, GigaDevice encountered negative consequences, and Cai Songsong carried out the corresponding reduction operation in a timely manner. On April 27, 2023, GigaDevice disclosed a quarterly report that the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 150 million yuan in the first quarter of that year, a year-on-year decrease of 78.13%, mainly due to the decrease in market demand for chip products, the year-on-year decline in the company's operating income, and the decline in gross profit margin, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in gross profit.
Judging from the changes in the top 10 circulating shareholders of GigaDevice at that time, Sino Growth was one of the active equity funds that held the most shares. Sino Analytica reduced its position by about 2.72 million shares in the quarter, with a reduction ratio of more than 25%. From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, Sino Analytica has reduced its position by about 6.03 million shares.
It can be seen that Cai Songsong, who has studied chip design for a master's degree and a doctorate, can not only select good companies, but also understand the semiconductor cycle, and understands the power of the semiconductor cycle better than any peer fund manager.
However, looking at his operation of Zhuosheng Micro and Shanghai Silicon Industry, it is incredible.
Obsessed with Zhuo Shengwei
Zhuosheng Micro's main business is engaged in the design and development of RF chips, and its customers are mainly Android mobile phone manufacturers. In June 2019, Zhuosheng Micro was listed on the GEM at an issue price of 36.29 yuan per share, and became the focus of the market because it pulled 14 daily limits after listing.
According to the third quarter report of Sino Analytica Growth in 2019, Zhuosheng Micro entered the top ten heavy stocks of the fund for the first time in that quarter. As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, Sino Growth held 474,600 shares of Zhuosheng Microshares, accounting for 6.66% of the fund's net value.
After Cai Songsong established a position in Zhuo Shengwei, he continued to increase his position. At the end of 2020, Sino Growth held 5,747,400 shares of Zhuosheng Micro, accounting for 9.53% of the net value, and by the end of 2021, Sino Growth held 7,671,900 shares of Zhuosheng Micro, accounting for 9.15% of the net value.
In the second half of 2020, Cai Songsong increased his net holdings of Zhuosheng Micro by about 1,889,400 shares. And "coincidentally", in the second half of 2020, the original shareholder of Zhuosheng Micro, Tianjin Xundu Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership), reduced its holdings as soon as the ban was lifted, and the company reduced its holdings of 1.7997 million shares of Zhuosheng Micro from July 22, 2020 to December 29, 2020, with an average price of 518.23 yuan, and a total of about 933 million yuan.
In 2022, in the obvious downward cycle and performance decline, Cai Songsong will be net sellers of heavy stocks such as SMIC, San'an Optoelectronics, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Weir Shares, and GigaDevice, but he will buy Zhuo Shengwei all the way to "raise his card".
According to the second quarter report of Sino Analytica Growth in 2022, by the end of the first half of the year, it held 19.3312 million shares of Zhuosheng Micro, and by the end of the third quarter of 2022, it increased its holdings to 26.7221 million shares.
If Cai Songsong increased most of the stocks of the top ten heavy stocks, it may be understandable to "raise the card" Zhuo Shengwei, but why did he only significantly increase his holdings in Zhuo Shengwei, and what is the superiority of Zhuo Shengwei's fundamentals?
In fact, in the first half of 2022, the declining performance growth of Zhuosheng Micro has appeared, with operating income and net profit attributable to the parent company declining by 5.27% and 25.86% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the third quarter of that year decreased by 54.58% year-on-year, and the revenue and net profit in the fourth quarter fell by 42.52% and 86.13% year-on-year, and the profitability fell off a cliff, and the annual revenue and net profit decreased by 20.63% and 49.92% year-on-year respectively.
It was in the process of Cai Songsong's increase in Zhuosheng Micro's position that the actual controller of Zhuosheng Micro completed part of the cash-out.
ON DECEMBER 16, 2022, ZHUOSHENG MICRO ISSUED AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON THE COMPLETION OF THE REDUCTION OF SHARES BY THE ACTUAL CONTROLLER AND PERSONS ACTING IN CONCERT, AMONG WHICH XU ZHIHAN, FENGCHENHUI (FENG CHENHUI), AND HUIZHI INVESTMENT, 3 SHAREHOLDERS REDUCED THEIR HOLDINGS BY A TOTAL OF 9.4999 MILLION SHARES, ACCOUNTING FOR 1.78% OF THE TOTAL SHARE CAPITAL, AND CASHED OUT ABOUT 970 MILLION YUAN FROM SEPTEMBER 5 TO DECEMBER 15, 2022.
Take over the Shanghai silicon industry at a high level
The situation of the Shanghai silicon industry, which is suspected of being a high-level takeover by Sino Analytica, has also attracted the attention of the industry.
Shanghai silicon industry is a semiconductor silicon wafer enterprise, is the first in Chinese mainland to achieve large-scale sales of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafers, the current main products include 300mm polished wafers, epitaxial wafers and 200mm and below polished wafers, epitaxial wafers, SOI silicon wafers. The company went public in April 2020.
The performance of Shanghai's silicon industry is in the red most of the time. According to the data of the annual report from 2021 to 2023, the company's non-net profit deducted was -132 million yuan, 115 million yuan, and -166 million yuan respectively.
Judging from the stock price trend of Shanghai silicon industry, its stock price peaked in July 2020, the fourth month after listing, with a maximum of 69.00 yuan per share. After that, the price fell sharply, falling to 21.93 yuan per share at the end of March 2022. After that, it continued to fall, and as of the close of April 22 this year, there was only 12.65 yuan / share left.
However, in the face of such a decline, the Sino Growth Fund managed by Cai Songsong still chose to participate in the private placement of the Shanghai silicon industry on March 9, 2022, and was successfully allocated 15.22 million shares.
This decision is contrary to the general expectations of the market, so it has raised widespread questions about its investment logic and decision-making ability.
According to the data of Tiantian Fund Network, as Cai Songsong's representative product, Sino Growth Mix, will lose 12.93 billion yuan in 2022, with a management fee of 376 million yuan.
When the tide recedes, you don't know who is "swimming naked". After the fund investors suffered large losses, they suddenly became angry: Manager Cai, who "knows best" about semiconductors, has the characteristics of taking orders at a high level and chasing the rise and fall, and his trading style is like a "novice white" of retail investors.
Is Cai Songsong's increase in holdings really based on a judgment of the company's value, or is it more influenced by other factors?
The phenomenon of high-level takeover of public funds has been criticized. According to public reports, this phenomenon does exist in recent years, which is one of the important reasons for the poor net value performance of many public funds.
According to the announcement on the official website of Nuoan Fund, on September 29, 2023, Cai Songsong has stepped down from all the fund products under management. What may have happened to Cai Songsong, please see "Back: The History of Cai Songsong (3)".
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