Recently, the speed at which the yen has depreciated has surprised many. Some investors bluntly said, "The yen is breaking your psychological expectations every day." ”
On April 25, as of press time, the yen had fallen below 155 yen per dollar, a 34-year low.
Some analysts have pointed out that one of the important reasons for the depreciation of the yen is the aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Analysts believe that the depreciation of the yen is highly related to the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, and the Japanese people's wallets have shrunk and consumption has been sluggish; although the appreciation of the yen is inevitable in the future, it is difficult to change the general trend of Japan's economic contraction in the long run.
In this context, some mainland netizens even joked that they changed a bunch of yen as a "wealth management product", if the subsequent yen exchange rate rebounded, they could earn a lot of RMB, if the yen exchange rate has been like Adou "can't help", you can also travel to Japan.
With the sharp decline in the yen exchange rate, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the yen appreciated to a high of 21.47 from about 19.8 at the beginning of the year, a phenomenon that greatly boosted the enthusiasm of the domestic public for tourism in Japan.
According to the booking data of major online travel platforms, the popularity of Japanese tourism in China has shown explosive growth recently. Among them, data from the Ctrip platform shows that during the May Day holiday, the most popular destination for outbound travel is Japan, followed by Thailand and South Korea. At the same time, statistics from homestay platform Airbnb also show that Japan has become the most searched tourist destination for domestic tourists this spring. In addition, data provided by Tongcheng Travel shows that in the past week, the popularity index of outbound travel bookings to Japan has increased by more than 3 times year-on-year.
In addition, the domestic daigou market is also quite active, especially on the Xiaohongshu platform, where Japanese travel guides and daigou information emerge in an endless stream. According to a previous report by Sino-Singapore Jingwei, a tourist with the pseudonym Ula recently found that the customers of the local LV store were mostly Chinese when he visited Kyoto, Japan. After enjoying all kinds of discounts, a bag with an original price of 20,000 yuan can save three or four thousand yuan.
Finet recently observed that in addition to the Japanese yen, other Asian currencies such as the South Korean won are also showing weakness, which is believed to be closely related to the high interest rate environment in the United States. In light of this situation, the finance ministers of the United States, Japan and South Korea met urgently last week to discuss strategies to deal with exchange rate fluctuations. During the meeting, both Japan and South Korea made clear their deep concern about the rapid depreciation of their currencies.
Based on this, some analysts predict that the central banks of Japan and South Korea may take corresponding measures to intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the exchange rate. Analysts point to a possible repeat of the situation in September 2022, when former BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda sharply plunged the yen after he stressed the bank's determination to maintain ultra-loose policy in his post-meeting speech.
It is worth noting that despite the sharp depreciation of the yen, UBS analysts boldly predicted a strong performance of the Japanese stock market in the coming months.
According to a report by Investing on April 25, UBS analysts predict a strong rally in the Japanese stock market in the coming months. The Nikkei 225 is expected to hit a new all-time high this year, mainly due to optimism about the process of corporate reform and expectations of strong corporate earnings.
UBS analysts expect the Nikkei 225 index (N225) to close at 45,000 points this year, while the Topix index, Japan's main market, will also hit an all-time high of 3,120 points, which means that the Nikkei and Topix are expected to rise about 19% and 17%, respectively, compared to current levels.
According to UBS, the main force of gains in the Japanese market will be export-oriented companies, while UBS also predicts that the yen will depreciate further. Given the BoJg's dovish monetary policy stance and the fact that U.S. interest rates are expected to remain high for longer, UBS expects the USDJPY to reach 160 by the end of 2024.
At the same time, some Japanese companies' shares are being repurchased to create additional value for shareholders, especially in sectors such as automotive, finance, and consumer goods. "We expect progress in corporate business reform, including expanding shareholder returns and advancing growth strategies, while profitability continues to grow steadily," the report reads. We believe market valuations will be further optimized. ”
As of the close of trading on April 25, Tokyo time, the Nikkei 225 Index closed down 2.16% at 37628.48, while the Topix Index closed down 1.74% at 2663.53. Since April, the Nikkei 225 Index and the Topix Index have risen and fallen by -6.79% and -3.80% respectively, and the overall performance has tended to be weak.
Text: Wu Wei