Text/Yang Xiaoyu
Editor/Qi Fei
On April 21, local time, under the state of emergency of power shortage in Ecuador, a crucial referendum came to an end. The referendum allowed military intervention in the security of the country to help address the country's serious drug violence problem and allowed domestic criminals to be extradited to other countries for trial.
On April 21, Ecuador held a referendum and a constitutional referendum, and President Noboa attended the event in the capital, Quito.
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, 36, hopes to reassure the people. Since taking office earlier this year, he has faced a series of tough challenges from the country's security sector. Even more shocking to the international community occurred in early April, when Ecuador broke into the Mexican embassy and arrested former Vice President Jorge Glas, prompting Mexico to announce the severance of diplomatic relations with Ecuador. On April 20, Noboa again declared a 60-day national emergency in Ecuador due to a power crisis: a major drought caused by El Niño has caused the country's electricity system to collapse.
As the youngest president in Latin America, Noboa took office with another young leader, President Bukele of El Salvador, hoping to emulate the latter's iron-fisted policies to stabilize Ecuador's gang-ridden and drug lord division, but so far, Noboa's path to power has not been smooth.
Since Noboa was elected through an irregular process following the impeachment of former President Lasso, he will need to run for the presidency in 2025. If Noboa fails to come up with strong measures to improve the security environment in the country during this period, it will be difficult for him to continue his previous high approval ratings.
As soon as the referendum ended, the Ecuadorian police announced that they had captured the leader of one of the country's two major gangs, Los Lobos, which undoubtedly gave Noboa a shot in the arm. But he still faces many challenges. Due to the diplomatic turmoil caused by Ecuador's invasion of the embassy and arrest, Mexico has filed a lawsuit with the United Nations International Court of Justice to "kick" Ecuador from the United Nations. Will Noboa's actions trigger a butterfly effect and cause unnecessary trouble to Ecuador? What will be the impact of Ecuador's actions in Latin America, where the polarization between the left and right is intensifying?
Noboa wore a bulletproof vest to the event.
After the "dream start", the challenge of the new president intensified
The young and handsome Noboa is the "game-breaking" choice for the Ecuadorians. In the October 2023 election, he won the presidency by 4% of the vote over the candidate Luisa González from a left-wing party. The son of Ecuador's richest man, Noboa was born in the United States and later grew up in Guayaquil. He graduated from New York University's Business School in 2010 and later went on to study at Northwestern University's School of Management and Harvard University.
Prior to graduate school, Noboa was involved in managing the family's banana export business for a while. Little could Noboa have imagined that just a few years later, her hometown of Guayaquil would become the epicenter of violent crime in Ecuador, and that she would be the one who needed to come up with a solution.
Noboa's disadvantage had been predestined since he was still campaigning. In the run-up to the election, Ecuador was followed by a political assassination that shocked the world: last August, Noboa's rival, Fernando Villavicencio, was shot dead in the streets of Quito, who was second in the polls and a serious contender for the presidency. It is speculated that Villavicencio was shot precisely because he dared to argue with gangs and drug lords during the election campaign, and also reported the names of gang leaders, leading to the latter's retaliation.
After Villavicencio's assassination, Noboa's poll numbers rose significantly, and by the day of the first round of the election, Noboa's support had almost caught up with Gonzalez, the all-powerful left-wing candidate. When the two entered the second round of the showdown, Noboa won the final victory with a tough stance on law and order and anti-corruption and a background of political amateurism.
This year's January 越狱的厄瓜多尔Los Choneros黑帮头目"菲托".
After taking office, Noboa's presidential journey can be described as a "dream start": on January 7 this year, Ecuador's biggest gang leader escaped from Guayaquil's highest-level prison, and riots broke out in several prisons across Ecuador, directly triggering the country's first national emergency in 2024. An even more dramatic scene took place on 9 January: a Guayaquil television station was hijacked by gunmen, who appeared in front of the live television camera to cut off the live broadcast, and the anchor and staff who were present were taken hostage. Immediately, in a television interview, Noboa claimed that Ecuador was "already at war."
On January 9 of this year, Guayaquil television was attacked by masked gunmen.
Since taking office, Novoa has pursued a repressive security policy, but violence has continued to emerge. More than 80 victims died across Ecuador on the last weekend of March, a large proportion of whom were victims of gang crime. Noboa responded with tighter prison controls, a longer state of emergency, and a more iron-fisted approach. Under the state of emergency, the Ecuadorian military has been approved to fully intervene in the administration of law and order in major cities, and after this referendum, the normalization of military-police integration will be written into the constitution.
However, what is more dramatic is not the various difficulties encountered by Noboa in national security, but the turmoil between Ecuador and Mexico that day really made international netizens have a good time.
Breaking into the hall and arresting people, a risky move by Noboa?
Grass, who is at the center of the turmoil, has served twice as Ecuador's vice president and is a partner of former President Correa.
He was released in November 2022 after being imprisoned in a corruption scandal and recently faces new charges for allegedly misappropriating funds for the reconstruction of the coastal province of Manawi after the 2016 earthquake.
In addition to the former vice presidentship, Glass's other identity is Correa's hair: the two have known each other since their Boy Scout days. In 2017, when Correa was wanted by the authorities on corruption charges, Glass was also charged with it.
After Noboa, who represents a new generation of right-wing forces, came to power in 2023, Glass knew that his party's return was hopeless and would soon face liquidation, and he entered the Mexican embassy in December of the same year to seek political asylum. The Mexican authorities did not directly grant him asylum status, but allowed him to stay in the Mexican embassy. In early March, Ecuador filed a petition with the Mexican embassy for Glass's arrest, but Mexico did not respond to this request.
Novoa is well aware of the stakes of this referendum. He is still on his honeymoon with public opinion, but he faces more challenges than he can prove his ability to govern in the short term, and he will face greater risks in the upcoming next election cycle. Therefore, he needs to make a risky move. CNN commented, "In a way, Glass has become a symbol of the past that Noboa wants to get rid of, and whether or not to order Glass's arrest this time has become a test of whether Glass can make up its mind to 'clean up the portal.'" ”
A woman cries next to the body of someone killed in a shooting in Guayaquil, Ecuador, June 4, 2023.
López, meanwhile, was also a politician known for his outspokenness, and the two sides soon began to go toe-to-toe.
On April 3, López criticized Noboa for eating the "dividends" of the killing of his rival in order to be elected. The next day, Ecuador began the operation: Noboa officially declared the Mexican ambassador "persona non grata" to the country. On 5 April, Ecuador sent police officers to surround the Mexican embassy in Quito. The police then forcibly entered the embassy precinct over the wall, took Grasse, who lived in the embassy, out of the embassy and sent him to the prison in Guayaquil.
On the evening of April 5, Ecuadorian police surrounded the Mexican embassy.
Video surveillance footage from the Mexican embassy shows Ecuadorian police personnel confronted resistance by the Mexican embassy's chief of foreign and policy affairs, Robert Canseco, who was also subdued and detained by Ecuadorian police. After being taken out of the embassy, Campeco appeared a little emotional.
The Mexican side reacted equally violently to Ecuador's actions. On April 5, López announced the suspension of diplomatic relations with Ecuador in a statement on social media, saying that Mexico saw the act as a "blatant violation of international law and Mexican national sovereignty." At the same time, Mexico officially declared that Glass had been granted legal political asylum status.
Former Ecuadorian Vice President Grasse who was involved in the turmoil.
If it were just a rhetorical cannon, López would not retaliate with substantive diplomatic action. When Argentine President Millay was elected, López also criticized him as a "fascist", and Milley later replied to López, calling him an "ignorant fool." But Ecuador's action to arrest people over the wall has challenged Mexico's bottom line.
Mexican political circles expressed a unanimous attitude towards the incident. This year coincides with an election year in Mexico. In the first round of the presidential election debate held on April 7, Claudia Schönbaum, a candidate from López's party, Morena, took the time to thank the international community for its broad support for Mexico, and Clara Brugada, a mayoral candidate in Mexico City, also expressed support for President López, with Mexico's opposition parties on the same side.
Leaders of neighboring countries have expressed their solidarity with Mexico. Brazilian President Lula, who has always had a good relationship with López, sent a telegram to the Mexican presidential palace to express his support; Argentina, which is in power on the right, also announced its support for Mexico; and Nicaragua followed Mexico's lead and decided to sever diplomatic relations with Ecuador the day after the incident.
The U.S. State Department condemned Ecuador's attack on Mexico's embassy in the country in violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and urged Ecuador and Mexico to "resolve their differences in accordance with international norms." For his part, UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed the importance of maintaining the inviolability of diplomatic institutions, which he said must be respected in all circumstances in accordance with international law.
Mexican President Andrés López.
While the world is overwhelmingly in favor of Mexico, Noboa shows no signs of backing down. In an April 15 interview with Australia's SBS broadcaster, he said he felt he was on the "right side of history" despite many countries around the world condemning the break-in of diplomatic premises as violating international norms. "We cannot release convicted criminals involved in very serious crimes, otherwise they risk an immediate escape, as we have done in the past, mocking the Ecuadorian people again," he wrote in an official statement. ”
Asked how to resolve the current crisis in relations with Mexico, Noboa said that when everything is ready, he will invite Mexican President Andrés López López to dinner so that the two sides can talk. He said the foods he wants to eat for López could include ceviche or burritos.
But for López, Noboa's attitude and Ecuador's actions are not just a personal attack, they rise to a provocation against the country's image and regional status. In addition to the issue of sovereignty, it also challenges Mexico's tradition as a political asylum country.
In recent years, Mexico has received several groups of political exiles, including the family of former Peruvian President Castillo and former Bolivian President Evo Morales. Historically, Mexico has also opened its doors to international political refugees, including Trotsky from the Soviet Union, former President Héctor Campora who faced military sanctions after the coup d'état in Argentina, some political refugees from the defeated side of the Spanish Civil War, and Polish refugees from World War II. If Ecuador's actions are allowed to go, the repercussions of the incident are likely to go beyond a diplomatic incident – it will raise questions in the international community about Mexico's credibility as a country of asylum, and even affect the president's future administration.
Polish refugees who came to Mexico during World War II.
The left-right game has intensified, and Latin American disunity has existed for a long time
The severance of diplomatic relations between Mexico and Ecuador may have a greater impact on the latter than on the former.
After Correa's departure, Ecuador has not had a leader with a satisfactory record of governance for a long time. In the post-Correa era, Ecuador's politics are divided and leaderless, and the economy is in recession due to falling oil prices and the pandemic. As a result, Ecuador's voice and participation in regional politics have plummeted as the country's political and economic situation has declined.
A man holds a ballot box in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on April 21, calling for a referendum.
It is clear that Noboa's radical moves are not of much benefit to Ecuador's international standing, but for him as a politician and for the current Ecuadorian people, diplomacy is not a priority, and solving people's livelihood and security issues is the most important thing. Stabilizing domestic affairs and solving urgent needs is the best bargaining chip for Novoalecki to win the 2025 general election.
The police presence at the Mexican embassy can be seen as a "show" by Noboa to its own citizens, showing them the government's determination to crack down on crime. But is this step taken by Novoia too risky? The arrest of people from the embassy involves not only political disputes in Latin America, but also violates the "Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations," which is a universal international provision. When Ecuador emerges from the crisis and re-establishes its image and relations in international politics, how will the international community view this diplomatic "precedent"?
Many analysts have pointed out that the severance of diplomatic relations will challenge the unity of Latin America in the short term, but in fact, the so-called "Latin American disunity" seems to be a contradictory proposition.
Latin America's sense of region and Latin American identity has always been strong, both within Latin America and globally, and there is a tendency to understand the region's culture, politics, economy, and history in terms of "Latin America", a concept that originates from a common language, rather than the geographical division of South and North America. At the same time, many political and cultural movements in Latin America have taken place on a regional basis, such as the "Pink Wave", the "Literary Explosion", the wave of military dictatorships and the politics of Caudillo, etc., which have broken down national boundaries and had an impact around the world.
Latin America, on the other hand, is less united. When it comes to geopolitical, economic cooperation and development on the basis of sovereign states, the region has been slow to pick up speed. Beginning with the national liberation movement led by Simón Bolívar, the integration of South America and even Latin America has been the vision of generations of Latin American politicians, especially traditional left-wing politicians. The region has established a variety of organizations, many of which exist in name only, and most of the more influential organizations are related to economy and trade, such as the Common Market of the South and the Inter-American Development Bank.
MAP OF THE MERCOSUR REGION.
In addition, the frequent news of leaders from different political camps in Latin America "choking" each other has further reinforced the perception of disunity within the region. Colombia's left-wing President Petro, for example, clashed with El Salvador's President Bukele last year, saying that he was using the prison as a "concentration camp," and Bukele responded with accusations of corruption by saying that Petro's son was allegedly corrupt, sarcastically saying on social media, "Is everything okay at home?"
El Salvador's President Bukele and Colombian President Petro have exchanged views on social media.
"Latin American disunity" seems to be a reflection of the overall lag in development, but in fact it is a reflection of the regional political ecology of ideological polarization and frequent political party rotation. The Associated Press described Latin America as swinging rapidly from left to right in recent years, and the current left-right game in Latin America is like "a fast-switching pinball machine".
As a region with a highly mobile and complex ethnic composition, language and colonial history are the greatest common divisor in Latin America, so it is relatively easy for the region to form a macro regional identity. However, due to the different levels of economic development and political culture and polarization of each sovereign state, it is very difficult to establish a cooperation mechanism like the EU at the national level.
At the same time, relations with the United States have long been a major consideration in Latin American diplomacy – and choosing sides and drawing lines based on ideology is a convenient option for many countries. In addition to exacerbating the ideological division of Latin American countries, the current severance of diplomatic relations is also a concentrated dramatic display of the above-mentioned political phenomenon.