Yesterday by the news and technical resonance and a rebound, institutional funds are just a play, homeopathic inflow, many people think that there will be a retaliatory rebound today, I think it is difficult to find a reason for a retaliatory rebound, the market does have a positive signal. Under normal circumstances, it is impossible to sustain the sharp rise and fall of the market, and only by steadily rising can the market usher in a turnaround. At present, institutional funds have been shorting, and they have not eaten enough, what do you let him pull, what market can he launch, what can institutional funds do, does he ignore the uncertainties of the long vacation, does he ignore the chaos in the Middle East?
Although the money-making effect has been greatly improved in the past few days, the market is not so terrifying. This is just a structural market brought about by the rotation of funds. The market should continue to rise, and the market should form a trend that perfectly matches the weight and the theme. If, as before, only the weight is pulled, the subject matter is weakened, and there is no money-making effect, it will naturally not be able to attract funds to enter the market. On the other hand, if only the theme is pulled, the weight will fluctuate and fall, the index will not be able to hit a height, and it will be difficult for market confidence to recover.
I have repeatedly stressed that the market should go well, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index should take the lead in narrowing the gap with the Shanghai Index, and at the same time bring about the improvement of the market's money-making effect. In the past two days, we have indeed seen the strengthening of the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market, and market confidence has changed greatly.
Although individual stocks rose more and fell less this morning, but the hot spots drifted again, and the big technology that was in full swing yesterday was basically extinguished today, replaced by the chemical sector. The funds are obviously inattentive, lighting fires everywhere and stoves everywhere. When the new hot spot is stirred up, look back at the old hot spot and go back to the original point. Such repeated hype, you can only firmly hold shares, naturally you can't chase it, and then start after seeing the hot spot rise, often you don't negotiate.
There are a couple of big news today:
1. The Central Financial Office and the Central Financial Working Committee: It is necessary to strengthen the risk assessment of financial innovation, and resolutely cannot engage in it if it does not work
The views of the Central Financial Office and the Central Financial Working Committee are very weighty, putting supervision in the first place in financial work, and financial innovation must put risk assessment in the first place. You can't innovate for the sake of innovation, regardless of the market's reaction. We should properly handle the relationship between strengthening financial supervision and financial innovation, and financial innovation should be carried out, but we should not innovate indiscriminately, and we should not engage in "innovation" that deviates from the needs of the real economy and evades supervision. It is necessary to strengthen the risk assessment of financial innovation, and resolutely not engage in it if it does not work.
2. Goldman Sachs: The A-share market may have about 20% or even 40% upside potential, which is expected to exceed 4,200 points
Goldman Sachs really dares to predict that for the A-share management, it is better for foreign investors to predict that the market can rise to 10,000 points, so why not. Foreign capital is a good publicity tool for A-shares, in fact, in recent months, a number of foreign-funded institutions have been singing more about China's economy and China's stock market, but in fact, foreign capital has not been long because of the investment bank's long. This makes people wonder whether the foreign capital's singing behavior is sincere.
It is worth noting that the Hong Kong market has begun to erupt, in the first three trading days of this week, the Hang Seng Index rose by more than 6%, and on April 24, it hit a new high this year, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by more than 9% during the week.
In fact, no matter whether foreign investors sing more or not, we are still full of confidence in A-shares. It is believed that with the continuous improvement of the stock market governance system and the recovery of the economy, the overall performance of listed companies will continue to improve. Judging from the recently announced results of the first quarter, the overall growth rate of performance has been greatly improved.
At present, the biggest problem in A-shares is that the short-selling mechanism is too developed. A large number of garbage companies are not able to clear it in time. This is the biggest obstacle that affects the longing of A-shares.
3. Will the market continue to rise in the afternoon?
The trend in the past two days has been much stronger than I expected, and the only thing that disappointed me was that I couldn't make money, and I couldn't make money when I saw the market being very lively, but I couldn't make money in my own hands. Occasionally, it's just a spread.
The stocks that rose in early trading this morning rose to about 3,800 at most, but there were less than 200 stocks that really rose by more than 5%, and the key is that the hot spot has shifted, which has nothing to do with my holdings.
From my understanding, the funds are attacking everywhere, there is no direction at all, even if it is hyped around the main line of recovery, but this trend you have no initiative except to firmly hold shares and wait for the wind to blow, neither dare to chase hot spots, nor dare to attack in advance. The operation is very passive.
My operating idea is still to sell if it rises sharply, enter the market if it falls sharply, and wait for a small rise and fall.
Today's market can be pulled up, mainly because foreign capital from the morning to the active inflow, in the afternoon if foreign capital continues to flow in, the market naturally still has room to rise, if foreign capital in turn outflow, the market will naturally have to fall.
Judging from the news, it has given foreign capital the urge to go long. The impact of foreign capital on the market is really great, but it is unlikely that foreign capital will enter the market in a big way at this point in time. I still don't think the probability of a big rise in the afternoon is very large. In the short term, I insist on selling high, but most of the positions are immovable and firmly held.