The whole consumption is hot, and the film market will not be bad.
After the Spring Festival, the wind of "withdrawing the gear" blew to the May 1st stall. On April 23, the animated film "Xiaoqian", which was originally scheduled to be released on April 30, announced on its official Weibo that it would be "released on a later date". There were originally 11 new films left in the May Day file, but it was still crowded for the 5-day holiday.
According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 20:00 on April 24, the pre-sale box office (including screenings) of new films in May Day in 2024 has reached 53.06 million yuan. According to the release calendar of the Lighthouse Professional Edition, there are a large number of cartoons in this year's May Day file, and the competition is fierce, in addition to the withdrawn Chinese comic "Xiaoqian", there are also Japanese animations "Spy Playing House Codename: White", "Howl's Moving Castle", and parent-child animation "Pigman Movie: Interstellar Operation", among which "Spy Playing House Codename: White" and "Howl's Moving Castle" are high in the pre-sale rankings.
"Spy Playing House Codename: White"
The withdrawal of 4 of the 8 new films in this year's Spring Festival file has caused heated discussions, and the hot schedule is no longer worth squeezing? What are the other problems worth thinking about in the May 1st file of the cartoon "involution"?
"Xiaoqian" was withdrawn, and it can fight again
"May we live up to our lovesickness, we will eventually meet", accompanied by a regretful goodbye, the domestic animated film "Xiaoqian" withdrew from this May 1st file. As the first work after the establishment of Light Animation, the film is adapted from "Nie Xiaoqian" in "Strange Tales from Liaozhai", reshaping the ancient love story with the current animation language. As early as February this year, "Xiaoqian" announced that it would be set for May Day, and the film's patch advertisements could already be seen in the theater. In the past, most of the May Day files only had small-cost parent-child animated films, but what I didn't expect was that with the two Japanese animated films "Spy Playing House Codename: White" and "Howl's Moving Castle" were set for April 30, "Xiaoqian" suddenly lost its competitive advantage.
"Spy Playing Home: Codename White"
On April 14, "Xiaoqian" started to be screened in advance, and offline roadshows were held in many cities, looking forward to word-of-mouth fermentation and gaining more attention and film scheduling. However, these screenings and roadshows did not make much splash. As of 20 o'clock on April 24, the pre-sale box office of "Spy Playing House Codename: White" exceeded 10.99 million yuan, ranking second in the schedule, and the 12.04 million yuan of "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team", which ranked first and had traffic actors participating, ranked fourth, and "Howl's Moving Castle" ranked fourth in pre-sale with 7.13 million yuan. The pre-sale ranking of "Xiaoqian" has been close to the bottom, and it is reported that before the film was withdrawn, only 1% of the film was scheduled on May 1, and in this situation, if it is not withdrawn, it can almost only "wait for death".
"Xiaoqian" officially announced the withdrawal
The withdrawal of "Xiaoqian" once again sparked netizens' discussion of the withdrawn film. Some fans urged the filmmaker to retract the decision in the official Weibo comment area, "It's not competitive in the first place, and all the withdrawn movies are miserable", "Now that it's miserable, where else can it be miserable". Regarding the schedule for the release of the day, some people suggest choosing the Dragon Boat Festival file with relatively small competition, and some people suggest that the National Day, Chinese New Year and other big schedules, and some people think that the film has love attributes and is suitable for Qixi or 520 files. However, the Qixi Festival file has already chased the light of "White Snake: Floating Life", in the eyes of many people, "it is still not recommended to fight against White Snake".
Judging from the trailer released by "Xiaoqian" at present, many viewers have high expectations for the quality of the film, and the pre-sale is not ideal, in addition to the strong competitors, in the eyes of some audiences, it is also related to the aesthetic fatigue of the mythological and legendary themes of Guoman. "I'm not surprised at all by the withdrawal of "Xiaoqian", cartoons often choose to be released in the summer vacation, May 1st and 11th are the peak travel hours, and the announcement of the beginning of choosing this schedule may have the mentality of staggering the peak. Fans of "Infinite Transparent Blue" believe that the audience is too familiar with the traditional Chinese theme of Zhiwei, but puts forward higher requirements for the quality of the movie, "Back then, "White Snake: Origin" was able to get out of the circle because the plot said something new. ”
There are many film and television dramas adapted from "Nie Xiaoqian", such as the "A Chinese Ghost Story" trilogy starring Wang Zuxian. There is also no shortage of similar items in domestic animated films, and in 2023 alone, two works with the same title will be recorded, one is "Liao Zhai: Lanruo Temple" filed by Chasing Light Pictures, and the other is "Xiaoqian: Fantasy" recorded by Beijing Light and Shadow Miracle Film and Television Culture Co., Ltd. Compared with meeting a strong opponent, the worse situation is probably that the three "Xiaoqian" go together.
The withdrawal of "Xiaoqian" also made many viewers feel discouraged: "There is one less film I want to watch on May Day, and I will run away as soon as I see that the wind direction is not good, when will such a deformed market end?"
"It's normal to withdraw the file, and the audience doesn't need to take it too seriously. Ishikawa, a professor at Shanghai Theater Academy, believes that the main reason for the withdrawal of "Xiaoqian" is the lack of confidence in the market due to the recent two Miyazaki films. "The artistic quality of the film is good, and if it can be rescheduled to the summer release, there may be more market space, and the audience who wants to watch it does not need to wait too long. ”
May 1st pre-sale box office list
In his opinion, the view that "no withdrawn films will end well" lacks basis. Previously, films such as "Detective Chinatown 3" and "King of the Sky" have been withdrawn, and they have achieved high box office after their release in the new schedule. "Actually, in the past few years, there have been films withdrawn from the May Day file. In the case of unsatisfactory pre-sales, '' is a risky behavior, and it is a more rational choice for the issuer to re-select the schedule based on market feedback. The audience can't doubt the quality of the film just because they meet at a different time. ”
The number of young audiences in the "second dimension" has increased, but the market still needs to wait and see
"We have reason to expect that this year's May Day cartoons can shine and become box office dark horses. Chen Jin, a data analyst at Lighthouse Professional Edition, said that in recent years, the demand for family movies has shown an upward trend, especially in the popular period, and the phenomenon of dragging the whole family to watch movies is very prominent. For example, the box office of the "Bear Infested" series of films, which is deeply involved in the Spring Festival stalls, has repeatedly reached new highs, and at the same time, the two-dimensional group dominated by young audiences has gradually become a new force in the film market. This also makes the box office performance of animated films such as "Spy Playing House Codename: White" and "Howl's Moving Castle" on May Day this year optimistic.
Many theaters have arranged the check-in area of "Spy Playing House Codename: White" Photo by Zhong Han
Many theaters have arranged the check-in area of "Spy Playing House Codename: White" Photo by Zhong Han
On April 20, the premiere of "Spy Codename: White" was held in many places across the country, attracting many fans to participate. The series of dramas "Spy Playing Home" won a high score of 8.9 on Douban, and the first season became the fastest animation to break 100 million on station B. However, compared with old IPs such as "Conan", this series is relatively young, and the film released this time is the first film version of "Spy Playing Home". The reporter found that many theaters in Shanghai have made check-in areas for the film, and some have sales booths of surrounding partners. Chen Jin introduced that the recent offline marketing activities of "Spy Playing Family Codename: White" are rich and diverse, and the popularity of new Taopiao tickets in the past 7 days is significantly higher than that of other films, and the proportion of users aged 24 and below who want to watch is higher.
"The movie version still meets expectations and meets expectations, there are a lot of jokes that should be there, and there are also big scenes that are only equipped with movies. "Infinite Transparent Blue" is a two-dimensional enthusiast and a fan of the series. In addition to the film, she also intends to buy the merchandise of the series, "which will definitely cost more than the movie in the end." In addition to "Spy Playing House Codename: White", "Howl's Moving Castle" is also in her "Five Piece List", and the movie ticket has not been bought, she has already taken a fancy to the protagonist's pair of earrings on social platforms, and plans to start. "I believe that the young audience of the second yuan must be a new force in the film market, and they are the main force. They have a higher enthusiasm for the creation of film fandom, and some excellent secondary creations play a great role in promoting the promotion of the film. ”
The animation peripheral store at the entrance of a theater in Shanghai, among which there are peripheral sales related to "Spy Playing House Codename: White" Photo by Zhong Han
"Although ACG is a niche group, they have strong spending power and a strong desire to socialize. A theater manager in Shanghai noticed that when "Spy Playing House Codename: White" was released in Japan, a popcorn bucket with a character image was selling well, and it was once hyped to a high price on the domestic second-hand platform, and similar peripheral sales were introduced in this domestic release. In addition to the check-in area, the theater and its partners will also gather cosplay enthusiasts who will dress up as characters from the movie and interact with the audience on the spot. However, as for whether "Spy Playing House Codename: White" can become the schedule champion, the theater manager said that he still needs to wait and see, "The purchase volume around the theater is not large, and we found that some peripheral stores have more people watching and fewer people buying, which may be related to the fact that the IP is not well-known enough in China." And a group of core fans have already seen it at the premiere, and it is doubtful whether the box office can maintain its growth momentum during the May Day period. ”
2014-2023 Cartoon Box Office Production Value Beacon Database
"Relying on IP licensing, peripheral sales, etc. to obtain higher income beyond the box office, this model is represented by Hollywood in the United States, and the consumer group of Japanese animation is relatively niche, and it is difficult to become the main product in the commercial market. Ishikawa believes that this year's May Day does rise Miyazaki fever and animated film fever, but it is too early to judge that the two-dimensional group will become the main force in the future film consumer market. "Howl's Moving Castle", as one of Miyazaki's masterpieces, can attract the post-80s and post-90s generations to the theater to revisit the classics, and can also bring parent-child movie-watching groups, and the two-dimensional group is only a part of the audience. Even if you're not a fan of the second dimension, you won't buy its peripherals and dress up as a character in it, but it doesn't prevent you from liking this movie and buying a ticket for it. ”
The schedule attribute of the May 1st file is open
A total of 10 new films will be released on May Day this year, in addition to 4 animated films, there are also action films "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team", romance films "Journey Through the Moon", suspense films "There is nothing that can't be solved by a hot pot", crime films "The Siege of Kowloon Walled City", and comedy "Spending Money at the End of the Road", "The overall film supply is very rich in genre, meeting the viewing needs of different audiences." Chen Jin introduced that after the pre-sale of "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team" opened, it quickly led the pre-sale box office list, and it was also the first film to exceed 10 million yuan in the pre-sale box office, and the proportion of people over 25 years old who wanted to watch it was prominent; "Journey Through the Moon" is the only main type of romance film on May Day this year, and the proportion of people aged 24 and below who want to watch it is the highest; Hong Kong film "The Siege of Kowloon Walled City" has the highest degree of character among other film areas, and is deeply loved by older male audiences; "There is nothing that can't be solved by a hot pot" has a prominent proportion of women who want to watch.
The poster of the movie "There is nothing that can't be solved by a hot pot".
"The Siege of the Kowloon Walled City" may become a dark horse, and some people bought it as soon as the first day of May Day was released, and the attendance rate has surpassed that of "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team". A theater manager said that at present, "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team" has not arranged offline promotional activities such as Shanghai roadshows, which has a certain impact on the box office. May Day is the peak of travel, which brings unfavorable factors to the theater box office, "It is similar to the Spring Festival, tourists come to Shanghai, and they usually do not watch movies." ”
"Compared with the Spring Festival files, National Day files, etc., which have clear schedule attributes, the schedule attributes of the May Day file are open, and any type of movie can come in. Ishikawa believes that it is a bit unexpected that there are a lot of animated films on May Day this year, but the configuration of action, suspense, love, comedy and so on is relatively reasonable, which can meet the diverse choices of the audience. "It's like ordering food in a restaurant, where a table of dishes is ideal with meat and vegetarian food and nutrition, but often the situation is that the chef serves you two fish or two plates of meat at the same time. He believes that for this kind of open schedule, it is more difficult to allocate it, and it is necessary for the distributor and the theater chain to do a good job of negotiation and make the combination of genre and film type more reasonable. "Just like the Shanghai International Film Festival can make box office results in June that do not lose the popular schedule, it relies on the scheduling skills of senior filmmakers like 'Four-Eyed Lao Wang'. In order to achieve the ideal effect of making enough popular schedules and expanding new schedules, thousands of film scheduling craftsmen like 'Four-Eyed Lao Wang' are needed. ”
Huang Jingyu, Wang Yibo, Zhong Chuxi starring "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team"
There are more and more movies like "Xiao Qian" that have come to the hot schedule and then withdrawn, is it still meaningful to squeeze the schedule?" "If the schedule attribute is suitable for the film's own tonality, and there is no homogeneous competition, it certainly makes sense to squeeze the popular schedule and meet market demand." Ishikawa believes that although May Day is usually accompanied by travel fever, there is no contradiction between a really good movie and a trip. "Many tourists go to the scenic area and go to see a song and dance show in the evening, and if there is a cinema in the scenic area, they can also choose to watch a movie. The problem now is that many movies are watchable or not, and there is a lack of sufficient single-film market competitiveness. He is also optimistic about the box office of the May Day Film Market, "Since last year, I have been traveling almost every month, and I have found that the consumption environment has picked up significantly in recent months. Shanghai's airports are crowded, and you have to wait in line to eat in the malls in the city center. The whole consumption is hot, and the film market will not be bad. ”