Source: Global Times
On April 22, the United States announced that it had begun discussions with the Nigerien junta on the withdrawal of US troops from the country. In March this year, Nepal suddenly demanded that the United States withdraw its troops, and this is only the latest move by countries in the Sahel region of West Africa to demand the withdrawal of Western troops. Previously, France had already been asked to withdraw its troops from Mali, Burkina Faso and other countries. Many European and American think tanks and media are worried that this will lead to a significant decline in Western influence in the Sahel and Russia's incursion. There are even research institutes that say Western influence in the Sahel has collapsed. So, how many more Western troops are deployed in the region? Why are the Sahel countries "sweeping these troops away"? Can Russian power replace them?
"Our message is clear: American soldiers pack up and go home!"
"This is Agadez, not Washington, U.S. troops get home!" A protester held a large banner demanding the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Niger in the central Niger city of Agadez on April 21. Hundreds of people took part in the protests that day, and the organizer of the event, Emmud, told AFP: "Our message is clear: American soldiers pack up and go home!"
On April 22, the day after the protests, U.S. Defense Department spokesman Ryder announced that Washington had begun discussions with the military junta of Niger on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country. The Pentagon plans to send a small delegation to Niger to participate in the talks, including members of the U.S. Africa Command, but the timetable for the withdrawal is uncertain.
According to Australian "Dialogue" news and other media reports, the United States has a military presence in several African countries. After 9/11 in 2001, the United States increased its military footprint in Africa. In 2007, the U.S. Department of Defense unified its efforts in Africa and established Africa Command. The United States first deployed troops to Niger in 2013 and now has about 1,000 troops stationed at two bases in the country. The two bases are 101 Air Base in Niamey, the capital of Niger, and 201 Air Base in Agadez. Among them, the 201 air base is a drone base, with a cost of up to $110 million. It is one of the largest U.S. drone bases in Africa and will enable Washington to conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance activities covering almost the entire Sahel region. The region stretches from Africa's Atlantic coast to the Red Sea, including at least 14 countries including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
In March of this year, Niger abruptly demanded that the United States withdraw its troops. In addition, the Chad bombardment made the same demand. According to Reuters, the media reporter saw a letter sent by Ahmed, chief of staff of the Chadian Air Force, to the country's transitional government on April 4. In the letter, Ahmed said that he had informed the US military attaché and demanded that Washington cease its activities at the Aji Kosai airbase, since the Americans failed to provide documents that justified their presence there. A U.S. official revealed that the U.S. rotates fewer than 100 troops in Chad, whose main job is to plan missions in the region. In response, a spokesman for the US State Department said that Washington is in dialogue with Chadian officials about the future of the security partnership between the two countries.
Niger and other countries have demanded that the United States withdraw its troops, the latest move by countries in the Sahel region to expel Western troops. After a coup d'état in Niger last July, France was called for to withdraw its troops. France withdrew its troops deployed in Niger last December. In addition, in February last year, France, at the request of Burkina Faso, withdrew its troops from the country. On August 15, 2022, the General Staff of the French army issued a statement saying that the last unit of Operation Crescent Dune, stationed in Mali, had left the country.
According to Reuters in September 2023, as of that time, France had deployed about 1,500 troops in Niger, 1,000 in Chad, 900 in Côte d'Ivoire, 350 in Senegal and 400 in Gabon. Germany had 887 troops stationed in Mali at the time, including 755 in the northern district of Gao, and the rest in Bamako, the capital of Mali. About 110 German soldiers were stationed in Niamey. According to the Italian Defense Ministry, Rome had about 300 soldiers in Niger before the coup d'état. The EU launched a three-year military training mission in Niger in December 2022, deploying less than 100 troops to the task.
On August 6, 2023, the Italian Ministry of Defense said that 65 Italian soldiers had left Niger on a military plane. In December 2023, it was announced that Germany had completed the withdrawal of its troops from Mali, thus ending its mandate within the framework of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali. Excluding the troops that France has withdrawn and the troops that the United States will withdraw, the troops of France, the United States, Germany, Italy and other countries in West and Central Africa will be reduced by more than 3,000 compared with September last year. It is worth noting that in August 2023, a military coup d'état occurred in Gabon, and the country's military junta then had diplomatic friction with France, which also made the French army in Canada "swept away" at any time.
"There's nothing left to lose"
As Western military troops have withdrawn or been driven out of the Sahel region one after another, many European and American think tanks and media have expressed concern about this. Many European and American media also said that with the withdrawal of Western troops, terrorist acts in West Africa and the Sahel region will increase significantly, and the security situation will continue to deteriorate.
Why, then, do the countries of the Sahel region take the risk of security and expel the troops of European and American countries? According to an analysis by the US "Intercept" news network on 19 March, although the strength of US troops in Niger has increased by more than 900 percent in the past 10 years, terrorist activities in the Sahel region have not been curbed. According to the U.S. State Department, between 2002 and 2003, extremist militants caused only 23 casualties in all of Africa, while data from the Center for Strategic Studies, a research arm of the U.S. Department of Defense, shows that in 2023, attacks by extremists in the Sahel alone killed more than 11,600 people, more than 500 times more than 20 years ago.
Through interviews with Niamey people, the Global Times reporter found that most locals have a negative view of the West's anti-terrorism operations in Niger in recent years. "I don't feel like they've done anything for us, the roads they promised to build haven't been built, they've pulled away our resources without giving us money...... Western countries did not help us, they should have left. Locals Su Lei said.
A number of Western research institutions have also pointed out that the "paternalistic style" displayed by Europe and the United States in their dealings with the Sahel and other African countries is also a place where these countries are very disgusted with the West. According to an article by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, "paternalism" refers to the use of leverage or coercion by powerful countries to influence the decision-making of weak countries to suit their own ends. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies of the United States, the reason why Niger suddenly demanded the withdrawal of US troops in March this year is closely related to the latter's attitude. On March 16, one day after a senior U.S. military official visited Niamey, the Nigerien junta announced an immediate severance of security cooperation with the United States, the think tank said. Nepal's military spokesman Colonel Abdraman said that Nepal's decision was partly due to the United States' warning that Niger's ties with Russia and Iran were too close, that senior U.S. officials were visiting Niger without proper diplomatic etiquette, and that they were arrogant.
In an interview with the Global Times, Samson, an analyst of Nigerian politics and international affairs, said that Niger's request for the United States to withdraw its troops is because Niamey is dissatisfied with the West's long-term deception and plundering of resources, which has led to long-term poverty and underdevelopment in Niger. Similar decisions have been made not only by Niger, but also by African countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad. A Nigerien military government official told reporters that a phrase often on the lips of some senior military junta officials is, "Today's Niger has nothing to lose." We just want to develop the economy and let the people live a good life." The officials said they canceled the military cooperation agreement when they realized that the U.S. military base had not helped Niger achieve development. The Nigerien junta is not against American investment, it just doesn't want them to be stationed.
Zhang Chun, a researcher at the Center for African Studies at Yunnan University, expressed a similar view that Western intervention in the Sahel region has not had the desired effect on the terrorist threat, and that discontent with the West continues to build in the region's countries. He believes that Africa's strategic autonomy has risen in the 21st century, especially after the second decade, which can also be called a new wave of "decolonization movement", and its focus has shifted from the pursuit of political independence in the 60s of the 20th century to the pursuit of security independence and economic independence today.
"Informal arrangements" should not be underestimated
The withdrawal of Western countries from the Sahel region is also a source of joy and worry. The U.S. Foreign Policy Research Institute issued an article saying that this marks the beginning of a new era in which African elites are responsible for African affairs. African leaders are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with Western powers. This trend reflects the growing awareness among Africans that Africans are best left to solve their problems. However, the events also marked a turning point in the trend of Western influence in the Sahel. Veron, director of the Africa Program at the Royal Belgian Institute of International Relations, said in late 2023 that Western influence in West Africa was "disintegrating."
Zhang Chun told the Global Times that the view of "the collapse of Western influence in the Sahel region" should be divided into two parts: on the one hand, from the perspective of formal arrangements, the West's influence in the region has indeed been greatly affected, and on the other hand, from the perspective of informal arrangements, it is still difficult to judge how much Western influence in the region has been affected. In fact, the vast majority of Western influence on the ground comes into play in the form of informal arrangements, such as France's special relationship with Africa, Western intelligence networks in the region, and so on. It is important to note that, with the support of existing informal arrangements, formal arrangements may be latent or even strengthened after they have been publicly terminated. Western influence in the Sahel is more likely to be "structurally transformed" than "fully fading".
Western countries have not given up on deploying military forces in other African countries. The Wall Street Journal reported in January that the United States is currently trying to sign a new security cooperation agreement and considering the deployment of unmanned reconnaissance aircraft in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Benin, and Washington has held preliminary talks with relevant countries on this.
It is more effective to blame Russia than to admit "incompetence".
As the military cooperation between Western countries in the Sahel region is not progressing smoothly, many European and American media have pointed the finger at Russia, believing that the Wagner Group, a former Russian private defense contractor, is expanding its footprint in Africa and squeezing the strategic space of Western countries.
According to the Australian "Dialogue" news network, the US CNBC website and other media reports, the Wagner Group has about 5,000 members, which has been operating in many parts of Africa since 2017, and has already carried out activities in African countries such as the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali and Sudan. In 2023, after the Wagner Group's rebellion was quelled, the group was renamed the Afrika Korps. In January of this year, 100 members of the Russian "Afrika Korps" arrived in Burkina Faso, also bringing air defense systems and other equipment.
Many people in Niger have high hopes for the Russian "Afrika Korps", believing that the latter will be able to ensure the safety of the local people. Some said they saw Russian mercenaries help Mali reclaim territory from rebels. "We want the Russians to come," said Sali, an activist in Niamey, "and we are waiting for them, eagerly waiting for them." According to the Global Times, Niger is actively using the Russian-issued Milka (similar to China's UnionPay card, which Russia began issuing in December 2015 - editor's note), and Mali and Burkina Faso have also put forward the idea of no longer using West African CFA francs and wanting to get rid of Western control.
Zhang Chun believes that the influence of Russia's "Afrika Korps" in the Sahel and other African regions is far lower than what the West has preached, and the reasons include: The West has been operating in Africa for a long time, and Russia's "Afrika Korps" cannot be infiltrated at will; the end of formal arrangements between the West and some African countries requires an excuse that can convince the public, and blaming Russia is far more effective than emphasizing Africa's strategic autonomy, because blaming Russia can only show that "the enemy is too cunning" , and emphasizing Africa's strategic autonomy would only admit that "it is too incompetent."
In Zhang Chun's view, after the withdrawal of Western countries from the Sahel region by the United States and other Western countries, the region's security autonomy may be significantly improved, but its economic and social development may deteriorate, and efforts to improve regional security governance will become more complicated. At the moment, Niger's economy does have some problems. He Xing (pseudonym), an employee of a Chinese-funded company who has been based in Niger for 12 years, told the Global Times that in Niamey, more and more people can be seen begging on the streets. In the Gadago market, the largest wholesale venue in the region, the variety of supplies has been significantly reduced, and although it is not difficult to buy ordinary vegetables such as potatoes, onions and tomatoes, the price has also risen at least twice as much as before. In addition, the Radisson Blu Hotel, a high-end hotel in Niamey, used to be full every day, with a large number of Europeans and Americans, but now the occupancy rate is only about 20%. Due to the difficulty of doing business, the number of local Chinese restaurants has been reduced from five to two.
"That said, the security situation in Niamey is not bad, and there is no security risk even if you come out at night. But along the Nigerien border, skirmishes erupt every once in a while, He said. "From the current point of view, the Nigerien junta is looking for appropriate ways to develop the economy, and they need a little time. Samson said that terrorist activity in the Sahel has not decreased, and African countries must find other ways to make the turmoil in the region a thing of the past. (Jiang Xuan, Chen Zishuai, Yiwen)
[Global Times special correspondent in Nigeria Jiang Xuan, Global Times reporter Chen Zishuai, Global Times special correspondent Yi Wen]