In the past, when buying and changing cars, there were always people who were entangled in whether to choose a fuel car or a tram. But nowadays, the problem no longer seems to be difficult to solve. Recently, the Passenger Car Association announced the production and sales data of domestic passenger cars on April 1~14, 2024.
According to the data, during the period of April 1~14, the total sales of passenger cars (which can be roughly understood as "family cars") were 516,000, of which new energy vehicles accounted for 260,000, accounting for 50.39%...... In other words, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has officially exceeded 50%, and new energy vehicles have a sales advantage compared with fuel vehicles, so this is a landmark event.
Here we must first explain what "permeability" is, otherwise we are really afraid of causing ambiguity. "Penetration" refers to the proportion of new car sales. For example, assuming that the sales of 4S new cars in the country are 1 million units this year, then assuming that 600,000 of them are new energy vehicles, then the "penetration rate" is 60% (I believe everyone knows the difference between "penetration rate" and "ownership")
The penetration rate of new energy exceeds 50%
Oil trucks have become a minority?
On average, more than half of every 10 new cars sold are new energy vehicles! Overnight, gasoline vehicles have become a minority...... As a result, various media desperately propagandized, saying that "the oil car has become a thing of the past, and the era of the tram has arrived". So in response to this statement, I would like to express my opinion here. If you have different opinions, you can also leave a message to discuss.
First of all, I personally "disagree with the statement that "gasoline vehicles have become a thing of the past, and the era of electric vehicles has arrived"! Because the legal definition of "new energy vehicles" in mainland China is: electric vehicles, hydrogen energy vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and range-extender vehicles (not just trams).
And most of the above-mentioned vehicles, with the exception of trams, have engines and also have gearboxes. Therefore, although the legal name is "new energy vehicles", they are obviously closer to gasoline vehicles—— because most of these vehicles belong to "transitional vehicles before the full entry into the era of electric cars". It is both oil and electricity, and many of them even use them as oil trucks. So "new energy", where is the new?
New energy is not only electric vehicles
The proportion of hybrids is not small
So my personal opinion is that unless the "pure electric vehicle penetration" exceeds 50% one day, then I will definitely admit that it is "the end of one era and the beginning of another". However, at present, the news reports are about the "penetration rate of new energy vehicles", so there is not much "moisture" among them.
It's still the old principle: treat anything rationally and calmly, don't blow it or black. Neither nostalgic and conservative holding on to the gas car, nor willingly acting as a tram advocate (not touching the two ends, watching from the sidelines, may be difficult for most people).
The prospect of widespread use of trams
Still "stuck" by the battery
Although vehicle electrification is the most likely and promising technology solution in the long run, it is currently constrained by battery technology, and pure electric vehicles still have a long way to go. This year is 2024, and this year's technical theme is "semi-solid", but this "semi-solid" is still a recognized transition plan, and it will take about 2~3 years to evolve from "semi-solid" to "all-solid".
2~3 years later, perhaps the "non-lithium battery" technology will impact the battery industry again, such as solid-state sodium-sulfur batteries are also very hot at present, and even have the meaning of coming to China to build factories. In this way, the essence of full electrification of automobiles is still "the evolution and maturity of the battery waiting for the whole vehicle". Optimistic estimates are at least five years away.
Therefore, in the past five years, perhaps the most correct attitude towards electric vehicles is to wait and see! After all, as the old saying goes, "it is better to buy early than late". A little later, a little more mature, a little more production, maybe the price of the whole vehicle will come down a little more. I was deeply impressed by a car friend's message: Cars have always been consumer durables, not FMCG! Selling cars as FMCG is doomed to the end of the road!