China is the driving force behind the growth of global trade

The picture shows the busy container terminal of Lianyungang Port in Jiangsu. Photo by Wang Chun (People's Vision)

A few days ago, the World Trade Organization released global trade in goods data for 2023. According to the data, the total value of China's imports and exports in 2023 will be 5.94 trillion US dollars, maintaining its position as the largest country in global trade in goods for seven consecutive years, of which the international market share of exports and imports will be 14.2% and 10.6% respectively, maintaining the first and second place in the world for 15 consecutive years. Against the backdrop of a difficult recovery of the world economy, China's economy has shown strong resilience, providing a driving force for global trade growth.

Buyers of Chinese goods have spread all over the world

According to the 2023 global trade in goods data released by the World Trade Organization, in 2023, the total global export value will be 23.8 trillion US dollars, a decrease of 4.6%, after two consecutive years of growth in 2021 (an increase of 26.4%) and 2022 (an increase of 11.6%), and an increase of 25.9% compared with 2019 before the epidemic.

Specifically, in China, in 2023, the total value of China's imports and exports will be 5.94 trillion US dollars, 0.75 trillion US dollars more than the United States, which ranks second. Among them, China's international export market share is 14.2%, the same as in 2022, maintaining the world's first market share for 15 consecutive years, and the international market share of imports is 10.6%, maintaining the second place in the world for 15 consecutive years.

In this regard, Liang Ming, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that in 2023, under the background of a complex and severe external environment, a sharp slowdown in international market demand and the outbreak of local conflicts, the international market share of China's exports will remain basically stable, showing the strong resilience and competitiveness of China's foreign trade.

"In 2023, China's foreign trade will show the following characteristics: first, the overall operation of foreign trade is stable, and the trend of improvement in the fourth quarter is obvious; second, the vitality of business entities is sufficient, and the main role of private enterprises is enhanced; third, the trading partners are diversified, and the proportion of imports and exports of 'Belt and Road' countries increases; fourth, the competitive advantage of products is stable, and the export momentum is rich and active; fifth, domestic demand continues to recover, and the import of bulk and livelihood commodities expands in an orderly manner; sixth, high-level opening-up is steadily advancing, and the development momentum of new platforms and new business forms is good. To sum up, the performance of China's foreign trade can be summed up in four words, that is, 'stable quantity and excellent quality'. Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with this reporter.

Since 2024, China's foreign trade imports and exports have made a good start. On April 12, the General Administration of Customs of China released the first quarter report of foreign trade in 2024. Data show that in the first quarter of this year, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods was 10.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. In terms of scale, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, and in terms of growth rate, it hit a new high in six quarters.

Wang Lingjun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference a few days ago that at present, global trade is showing signs of stabilization and improvement. According to the results of the China Customs Trade Sentiment Survey, the proportion of enterprises reflecting an increase in export and import orders in March increased significantly from the previous month. It is expected that China's imports and exports will continue to improve in the second quarter, and basically remain in the growth channel in the first half of the year.

According to an article in the New York Times, buyers of Chinese goods from steel, automobiles, solar cells to electronics have spread all over the world, especially in Latin America and Africa. The Associated Press believes that China's imports and exports have increased significantly in the context of the overall downturn in the global economy, reflecting the gratifying phenomenon that the global market is recovering.

The "new three" release new momentum for foreign trade

"China's international export market share is 14.2%, maintaining its position as the largest country in trade in goods for seven consecutive years. The person in charge of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce recently pointed out that the stable import and export market share fully shows that relying on the integration advantages of the production and supply chain and the ability to continue to innovate, China's various high-quality products are welcomed by the international market. Relying on the advantages of a super-large-scale market, China's imports have also provided a strong impetus for the economic development of various countries.

Gao Lingyun analyzed that the supporting factors for the steady growth of China's foreign trade come from many aspects: " From the point of view of exports, first of all, China has a complete industrial system, is the only country in the world with all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification, China's manufacturing industry has a strong production capacity; secondly, China's foreign trade business entities continue to enhance their vitality, and constantly open up new space for development, especially the outstanding performance of private enterprises, foreign trade growth rate is significantly faster than the overall level; third, the policy of stabilizing foreign trade continues to release dividends, and Chinese governments at all levels are promoting foreign trade to stabilize the scale and optimize the structure, and promote the development and growth of the private economy. In terms of speeding up the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, we have come up with some hard and practical measures. From the perspective of imports, firstly, China has the largest middle-income group and is the largest market in the world, and secondly, China has further enhanced the super-large-scale market effect and consumption potential by holding the CIIE and lowering tariffs. In 2023, China imported more than 5 trillion yuan of bulk commodities, nearly 3 trillion yuan of electronic components and nearly 2 trillion yuan of consumer goods, providing a broad market space and cooperation opportunities for enterprises from all over the world. ”

It is worth noting that in recent years, thanks to scientific and technological innovation, scene innovation, and iterative upgrading of digital technology facilities, China's foreign trade has continuously improved its quality and upgraded while maintaining the stability of the total amount, and new momentum has continued to be stimulated. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in 2023, China will export 13.92 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 2.9%, accounting for 58.6% of the total export value. Among them, the total export of "new three" products such as electric manned vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells was 1.06 trillion yuan, breaking the trillion yuan mark for the first time.

Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the "new three" such as electric manned vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells have shaped the new growth point of China's foreign trade, enhanced the competitiveness of China's foreign trade, and are also in line with the current global trend and trend of pursuing low-carbon and green development.

Gao Lingyun pointed out that China's foreign trade highlights have frequently appeared, which have brought many positive impacts on the high-quality development of global trade: "First, China has withstood external pressure, overcome internal difficulties, and achieved the goal of promoting stability and quality improvement in the import and export of goods trade, which will help stimulate the growth of global trade and maintain the stable operation of global industrial and supply chains; Third, China adheres to multilateralism, expands opening-up, and strives to safeguard the interests of developing countries and emerging markets in the global trading system. ”

Actively maintain the stability of the global industrial and supply chains

According to a report released by the World Trade Organization, in 2024, global inflationary pressures are expected to weaken further, and real incomes will grow again, thereby boosting consumption. In addition, the new export orders index indicates that the recovery trend of goods trade in 2024 is already very clear. The report predicts that global trade in goods may grow by 2.6% in 2024 after falling by 1.2% in 2023, and may continue the recovery momentum in 2024 with an increase of 3.3% in 2025. However, the World Trade Organization cautiously stated that the uncertainty caused by geopolitical conflicts and protectionism is still rising significantly, and global trade is still likely to decline.

The "Yellow Book of World Economy: Analysis and Forecast of the World Economic Situation in 2024" released by the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Sciences Academic Press believes that based on the forecasts of international organizations, although global trade will not rebound strongly in 2024, the growth rate will be higher than that in 2023. The World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank forecast world economic growth of 2.5%, 3.0% and 2.4% respectively in 2024, down from the average annual level of 3.8% from 2000 to 2019, according to the Yellow Book analysis. From the perspective of cyclical or demand factors, the driving force of the world economy on trade in 2024 will still be weak, which is the main reason why it is difficult for global trade in goods to rebound strongly in 2024.

"In 2024, the challenges facing global trade will mainly come from the following aspects: first, the risk of geopolitical conflicts will increase, second, the demand growth of the world's major economies will slow down, third, the momentum of trade protectionism will rise, and some countries will set up various trade barriers to interfere with the stability of global industrial and supply chains, fourth, the secondary impact of geopolitical conflicts, such as the blockage of the Red Sea shipping corridor, which will raise the cost of global trade, and fifth, the intensification of global debt risks will increase economic vulnerability, which will affect global trade. Gao Lingyun said.

The person in charge of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce recently said that in order to cope with the severe and complex external environment, the Ministry of Commerce is working with various localities and departments to study and reserve a series of pragmatic and effective policy measures, focus on cultivating new momentum for foreign trade, and help foreign trade enterprises open up markets. China will continue to promote high-level opening-up, deepen close cooperation with other trading partners, and strive to make new positive contributions to the recovery of global trade.

Ralph Osa, chief economist of the World Trade Organization, said in a recent interview that China will become an important driver of global trade growth. China's expansion of the "visa-free circle of friends" in Europe and the continued recovery of China's outbound tourism are favorable factors for the growth of global trade in services.

"China has always been a staunch supporter and defender of economic globalization and advocates the settlement of trade disputes within a multilateral framework. At the same time, China's door is opening wider and wider. In recent years, China has continued to reduce tariffs and expand imports by holding CIIEs, so that countries around the world can better share the opportunities in the Chinese market. Gao Lingyun said that in the context of the rising risk of "decoupling and chain breaking", China actively maintains the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains, promotes the recovery of global trade, and continuously promotes the signing and upgrading of free trade agreements, which will have a positive effect on the growth of global trade.

Editor: Wu Jiahong

Source: People's Daily Overseas Edition