Gold: Overnight gold rose to a certain extent, but the overall rise was limited, which can only be regarded as a short-term rebound, and the pressure on the adjustment of the large cycle is still very large. At present, the market is already preparing for the worst, that is, the Fed will not cut interest rates this year.
The latest pricing in the interest rate swap market shows that the market is betting that the Fed will only cut rates by about 40 basis points this year, but the options market is more aggressive, and some investors have begun to bet that the Fed will not cut rates this year, or even resume raising interest rates.
Fed officials have been sending hawkish signals as U.S. inflation has shown signs of turning upward, and New York Fed President Williams even talked about the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in his speech before the silence period. The hawkish stance will boost the dollar in the short term, while also putting pressure on gold.
Technical: Gold daily closed doji, the bears still have an advantage, and the current trend is likely to be just a repair of the deviation rate. The price of the 4-hour period fell below the long-term moving average, and the rebound was weak, and there is a high probability of forming a downward ABC, and there is a high probability that it will continue to fall in the short term. In the short term, we can pay attention to the pressure on the upper $2330 line.
Gold price chart: Gold hourly chart
Crude oil: overnight oil prices as a whole maintained a narrow range of shocks, and neither the long nor the short side had an absolute advantage. Fundamentally, the economic data of the United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer, has declined, which may have a relatively negative impact on oil prices.
S&P Global data showed that the US manufacturing PMI fell below the boom and bust line of 50 in April, and the preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was only 49.9, far lower than the market expectation of 52 and the previous value of 51.9, hitting the lowest level since December 2023. The services PMI also fell, falling to 50.9 from 51.7, below market expectations of 52.
The data shows that the growth rate of the US economy is slowing, and economic activity in the second quarter is likely to be significantly less strong than in the first quarter. And as the expectation of interest rate cuts falls, companies' optimistic expectations for the future economy are also declining, and the slowdown in economic growth will inevitably drag down consumption, and crude oil will also be affected.
Technicals: Crude oil closed the doji on a daily basis, with signs of weakness on the upside, and the price is still running below the short-term moving average. The 4-hour cycle fell below the long-term moving average again, and there was a K-line signal to stop rising, and the short-term downward pressure was greater. In the short term, if it falls below the $82.50 line, it is possible to continue to make new lows.
Crude Oil Price Chart: Crude Oil Hourly Chart
Important Notice: The above content and views are provided by the think tank of the third-party cooperation platform and are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.