01
Unexpectedly, the property market rescued the market, and the more you played, the bigger it became.
I will make a point, you can see if I am right in the second half of the year:
The second half of the year must be a wave of trade-ins in major cities.
Not only mobile phones, home appliances, but also houses
Previously, Zhengzhou announced the details of the policy of "trade-in" housing.
This matter, in fact, is the same logic as the trade-in of household appliances, the government formulates the acquisition of the main body to purchase second-hand houses, to help the masses by selling the old to buy the new, and the old for the new.
And if you buy and sell the house in this way, you will also be given a 30% deed tax subsidy.
Isn't this trick an advanced replica of the 2015 monetized shed reform?
The property market rescues the market and takes the old road, which seems to be becoming clearer and clearer.
02
Speaking of the trade-in, I have to say that I really understand the pain points of the people.
What is the stuck point of the current property market transaction?
It is that the house cannot be sold, and if the house cannot be sold, it will be stuck and the replacement group will change houses.
What to do, the government will buy it.
In Xiangcheng District, Taicang City, Suzhou, and Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, state-owned developers have repurchased second-hand houses to help house changers free up funds.
In doing so, it can be said that three birds are killed with one stone.
1 is to promote the transaction, if you can't sell it, I will buy it directly, which will come up without volume, and the core is to go to inventory.
2 is to prepare for the construction of affordable housing, why does the government buy houses, build affordable housing, just this year is not there a goal to build, affordable housing does not necessarily have to be built, can be raised, the old house whitewashed can not be done as affordable housing?
The third is to force out savings and let the water flow to the market. It is impossible to change the new one at a 1:1 level, and many buyers have to post it again, so that the money deposited in the bank can flow out.
It's not that it's a curvilinear version of monetized shantytown.
2015 is about demolishing your house, giving you money, artificially creating demand, and letting you go to the market to consume inventory.
Now, considering that everyone is not short of houses, then don't demolish the house and give money, but help you collect the old house, and then let you make up the money to change the new house.
In fact, the purpose is also obvious, or to destock.
At the bottom of the economic cycle, if you want to get out of the downturn quickly, you need to see how fast the production capacity is, and the property market is to see how fast the inventory is removed.
In fact, recent policies are also revolving around this:
For example, the 7090 policy reduces the number of small units, thereby reducing the supply.
For example, the coordination of housing, people, and land, and the land auction plan in many cities has also been put on hold.
Another example is the silent cancellation of the price limit, and there is strictly no maximum price limit for new auction plots, which is equivalent to acquiescing to the rise in housing prices.
There is also this time that the local acquisition of houses that has spread since last year is also a consumption of inventory.
So is this trick really useful?
There are not enough sets, there are not enough follow-up cities, and you say that you want to form a fire, it is really difficult.
But this is not important, more importantly, there is already a determination to destock, this is important.
Think about it, whose hands are the land, whose flour is, and you can decide how much bread to make.
And let me tell you, if the depreciation price is too low, the buyer is unwilling, because he will not have enough money to change the new house, but what if the purchase price is too high?
Have you ever thought about this? If it is used as affordable housing, do you think the rent will be low?
There are some things I can only say so far.
Ordinary people, food, clothing, housing and transportation are inseparable, and you can not buy high housing prices, but you still have to rent.
If you don't rent a landlord, you have to rent affordable housing, so who do you rent from in the future, right?
If housing prices do not rise, houses are not easy to sell, land finance is unsustainable, and new industries are not hatched in a short period of time, then rent may be a way to make up for local income.
Those who grasp the core resources have another rent-seeking space, do you understand?
Let's talk about this first, let's talk about sensitivity, we just need to determine the direction of the bailout, make up our minds, and the means are.
But the key is that you have to understand the intentions behind the patriarch.
Now it seems that the implementation of the dual-track system is inevitable.
Because the big run is reduced to 5w, the cyclists will be too expensive, and they are not the target users, so the dual-track system is needed, so that the buyer and seller will feel that the other party is unreasonable.
For a long time in the future, there will be a lot of houses that will be cleared, especially staircases, outdated house designs, and houses with falling exterior walls and low housing rates, which will be eliminated by the market at an accelerated pace, either the price will continue to fall and it will not be easy to sell, or there may be a chance to be acquired.
My advice to everyone is to follow the signals and follow the trends.
03
The new model of real estate is coming slowly.
Twenty-six years ago, we ended the welfare housing division, and 26 years later, we almost have more than one apartment per household.
Times are changing, so what do we come up with?
From having a house to a good house.
This is not what I mentioned, it was mentioned by the big guy at the meeting before.
Then there is the cancellation of the 7090 policy in Shenzhen and Shanghai, everyone understands.
What was before was to bring commercial housing back to the market.
Subsequently, Guangzhou and Shenzhen began to cancel the maximum price limit.
In fact, many changes have long been hidden in several speeches and statements, and everyone has not paid attention to them.
The real estate development in our country is still very immature compared to developed countries.
It took 248 years for real estate in the United States and 100 years for real estate in the United Kingdom, and we have only been in 26 years.
You say we've come to an end?
It is normal for real estate to fluctuate at different stages and in different economic cycles.
But it's only been developed for more than 20 years, and when it comes to the end, it's really too much to think about.
When everyone can live in a villa, it will be possible.
However, there are still people who want to change to a bigger villa, the desire is endless, and your future grandchildren and great-grandchildren are more than you want.
Now it is just beginning to sprout from having a house to changing to a good house.
It's too early to talk about real estate at this time, and a long time in the future from now to the future must be the last opportunity to optimize and replace, and you can take the opportunity to optimize your property.
Replace a bad house with a good house, a small house with a big house, and an old house with a new house, as long as you do a good job in accordance with this, no matter how others sing about it, you can come out on top in the property market.
As I said before, 2024 is destined to be a watershed year for the property market, and the general rise in housing prices is unhealthy, and only differentiation is the long-term solution.
In the future, China's real estate is destined to be a cake for a small number of people.