Before Blinken flew to China on a special plane for his visit, the Chinese side took the initiative in a rare way, first knocking him on the mountain and shocking the tiger. Judging from the official briefing information to the outside world, we have made both soft and hard preparations in advance in terms of diplomacy and military affairs.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is about to arrive in China for an official visit, his second visit to China, but the media generally believes that, like his first visit, there will be little tangible results other than reaching some principled consensus with China. The reason is simple: Blinken's demands are completely different from those of the Chinese government.
As early as more than a month ago, Blinken was preparing for this visit, and at the NATO Foreign Ministers' Summit and the G7 Foreign Ministers' Summit, he demanded that China stop exporting so-called dual-use materials to Russia, otherwise the United States will sanction some Chinese enterprises and financial institutions, but this is only part of the purpose of his trip.
(Blinken has boarded a plane to China)
Specifically, the main objectives of Blinken's visit to China are as follows:
- It prohibits China from exporting so-called "dual-use goods" to Russia and imports crude oil and natural gas from Russia, prohibits China from importing oil from Iran, and helps the United States "persuade" Iran to stop its provocations against Israel. In order to achieve the above goals, in addition to Blinken's personal warning, the US Congress has also recently passed a bill claiming to impose sanctions on Chinese companies and financial institutions involved in trade with Iran.
- Continuing the topic of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China, she hyped up the so-called "overcapacity of China's green energy industry", demanding that China reduce the production capacity of photovoltaic panels, new energy vehicles and other industries, and raise prices, so as not to endanger the interests of the United States and Western counterparts. To this end, the U.S. government has increased tariffs on Chinese PV panel imports and threatened to ban all Chinese new energy vehicles from entering the U.S. market.
- It was proposed to China that the U.S. government should conduct a so-called Section 301 investigation into China's steel industry and shipbuilding industry, and that sanctions may be introduced in the future to weaken China's leading position in these industries, while continuing to increase sanctions on China's semiconductor industry, so as to ensure that China maintains a technological generation gap with the United States in the semiconductor field and allows the United States to always lead.
- China has warned that it must cede national sovereignty in the South China Sea and reduce its dispute with the Philippines.
- China is warned that it must increase its purchases of Boeing planes, corn and potatoes and other agricultural products to reduce its trade surplus, and that China will continue to buy US Treasury bonds and take financial measures to cooperate with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
(The People's Liberation Army released a video of the Shandong aircraft carrier showing the status of "all-deck attack")
These demands fully reflect the dilemma that the United States is now facing with internal and external troubles: in Ukraine and the Middle East, there is no guarantee that Ukraine and Israel will win, at the same time facing serious economic problems at home, the Federal Reserve is hesitant to raise interest rates and cut interest rates, and key industries are facing the impact of rising Chinese industry. And the U.S. government's arch fire in the South China Sea is nothing more than trying to create some bargaining chips in the bargaining with China, because they have no leverage at all.
In the face of these rude "demands" that Blinken is very likely to make, China has rarely taken the initiative and given him a blow first. Specifically, China is prepared for both diplomatic and military skills.
Diplomatically, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced in advance the five main goals of Blinken's visit in the form of a briefing:
- We call on the US side to establish a correct understanding. China has interests that must be safeguarded, principles that must be defended, and bottom lines that must be adhered to. We urge the US to implement the San Francisco Vision, instead of continuing to encircle, contain and suppress China in the name of "competition".
- He called on the US side to strengthen dialogue with China. The US side is obsessed with coercing its allies into forming an anti-China coterie and is completely against the trend, which is unpopular and has no way out.
- Manage disagreements effectively. The core interests that China must safeguard are the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, the road system, and the right to development. Among them, the Taiwan issue is the first red line that cannot be crossed in Sino-US relations. The Chinese side will clearly tell the US side that China's determination and will to safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests are unwavering, and that it will focus on Taiwan, economy, trade, science and technology, and the South China Sea.
- Promote mutually beneficial cooperation. China and the United States have made some progress in the fields of drug control, law enforcement, science and technology, artificial intelligence, agriculture, health, and climate change. We emphasize that fentanyl is not a Chinese problem, nor is it a problem caused by China.
- Jointly shoulder the responsibilities of major countries. China is playing a constructive and responsible role as a major country on hotspot issues such as the Middle East, Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, and we hope the same will be true for the United States. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has something to say: the United States is completely partial and has not achieved neutrality on the Middle East and Ukraine issues, and this is not the right attitude to solve the problem at all.
(What Yellen didn't get from her visit to China, Blinken didn't want to get it)
The five goals of the Chinese Foreign Ministry have actually basically pushed back the demands that Blinken is about to make. The United States has no bargaining chips to make demands on China, and it has no bargaining capital at all. They can't think of anything other than sanctions to bring China to its knees, but we have long since answered with actions: sanctions are useless.
(The Chinese Navy unveiled the video of the launch of the Julang-2 submarine-launched ICBM)
Militarily, the Chinese Navy made a rare public appearance of a strategic nuclear submarine test-firing the Julang-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile just before Blinken's visit. The Julang-2 represents China's sea-based nuclear strike force and is one of the most powerful counterbalances against the United States and other nuclear powers.
At the same time, in view of the "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise held by the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the PLA's Southern Theater has also taken action, the Shandong aircraft carrier battle group has been deployed in the South China Sea, and the picture of an "all-deck attack" has been made public to the outside world for the first time.
Blinken's plane has not yet landed, and the "results" that he can achieve on this trip have already been decided. As long as the United States does not abandon its hegemonist attitude, no matter who comes to China, it will return empty-handed.