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Since the beginning of 2024, the global financial market has high expectations for the US interest rate cut policy.
However, judging by the various recent data releases from the United States, the expectation of a rate cut is far away. There is even news that the Fed is planning to continue raising interest rates, which could be as much as 8%.
If the U.S. continues to raise interest rates, it means that the value of the dollar will continue to rise. This will be a fatal blow to the currencies of other countries.
Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several times in a row, and claimed that the main purpose of the interest rate hike policy is to curb the inflation problem in the United States.
In fact, the implementation of the interest rate hike policy is another attempt by the US government to maintain the hegemony of the US dollar in the world by harvesting the wealth of the global economy.
Judging from the response strategy of the United States to the past rounds of financial crises, each time it has adopted a policy of raising interest rates. Because the US dollar has a very high position in the global financial market, this is also the core factor of the United States to dominate the world.
With this advantage, every time there is an economic risk in the United States, the U.S. government uses monetary easing to shift the risk to other countries.
In the process of transferring economic risks in the United States, global economic risks will emerge.
With an accommodative monetary policy, the U.S. government will inevitably raise interest rates next. As the value of the U.S. dollar continues to rise, capital flows into the U.S. from around the world.
In this way, it will not only help the US side relieve economic pressure, but also solve the problem of inflation. Compared to the United States, due to the return of a large amount of capital to the United States, the economies of other countries have suffered heavy losses.
Now, the United States is once again repeating its old tricks, and its intentions are very obvious.
Although at the end of 2023, the market has high expectations for a rate cut in the US dollar. It even predicts the impact of the US interest rate cut on the global economy.
However, the Fed's interest rate cut policy is long in coming, and the expectations for this policy are gradually weakening.
Especially in recent times, the competition between China and the United States in the financial industry has become more and more intense.
If the United States continues to raise interest rates, it will not only deal a heavy blow to the economies of other countries, but also the impact on China should not be underestimated.
For the United States, the implementation of the interest rate cut policy may be able to further enhance the economic consumption situation.
Prior to this, inflation in the United States had fallen significantly. It is against this backdrop that the Fed plans to cut interest rates.
But as things stand, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut is not high.
Because the current inflation problem in the United States has rebounded again, if the harm caused by the inflation problem cannot be curbed, it will be a fatal blow to the financial and economic fields of the United States.
It is against this backdrop that it is difficult for the United States to achieve its interest rate cut policy.
If the United States pursues the policy of raising interest rates again, it will have a huge impact on the economies of China and other countries around the world. Judging by the current situation, the United States is starting a new currency war.
Central banks around the world are very uneasy in the face of this war, especially those countries that have already followed the US in raising interest rates, and will face more pressure on exchange rates in the future.
Judging from the current economic situation, it is difficult to say whether even if the United States pursues a policy of raising interest rates, it will play a role in alleviating the inflation problem in the United States.
The current economic situation does not support the Fed, and the decision to cut interest rates is easy to make, especially in the context of rising inflation, which further reduces the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates.
The trend of strengthening the dollar continues to increase due to inflation.
Now the main task facing the Fed is to take effective measures to reduce the problems caused by inflation. Faced with the possibility that the United States will continue to raise interest rates, how should China respond?
At present, the share of mainland currency payments in the international financial exchange market has reached 4.69%, which has successfully surpassed the yen.
However, some analysts believe that the proportion of the mainland currency does not match the existing overall strength.
In particular, from the perspective of GDP data, China's GDP data has completely surpassed that of the United States, but the proportion of currency payment is much lower than that of the dollar.
The main reason for this phenomenon is that in addition to the influence of the international financial transaction system, the mainland has established a cross-border payment and settlement model.
But in general, although the mainland's economy has entered a stage of rapid development, it still lacks some financial strength.
Some analysts believe that in the next development, in addition to the upgrading and renewal of the manufacturing industry, it is also necessary to strengthen the development of the financial industry.
What do you think about international payments? Welcome to discuss in the comment area!