laitimes

Peaking in stages?

author:A harvest day for lazy cats

Speaking of artificial intelligence,

Yesterday there was news - the founder of Kimi cashed out, but the official response said that the news should be untrue.

Things are not complicated,

KIMI is a large model that has recently become popular in the circle, and its ability to refine long text information is first-class, and it is considered one of the most promising large models in China.

However, in the latest round of financing, some media broke that Yang Zhilin, the founder of Kimi, cashed out $40 million by selling old shares.

Coincidentally, when combing through the quarterly report yesterday, I found that some star artificial intelligence funds had reduced their positions.

Geng Jiazhou also said the reason for reducing positions:

"The market has begun to spread from strong industrial trend varieties such as AI to some themes, which is an important sign of a phased peak."

Put two things together, and I can't help but think about it: can artificial intelligence still be fried?

So, dig deeper into the artificial intelligence fund and look at the operation of the fund manager in the first quarter.

On the far right is the position change, which can be clearly seen: several funds have reduced by 10%+, but not much has increased their positions.

Peaking in stages?

Several fund managers who have reduced their positions,

Geng Jiazhou said more bluntly:

The market began to spread from strong industrial trend varieties such as AI to some themes, which is an important sign of a phased peak, and began to reduce equity positions in mid-March.

There are a few others, although the position has not changed much, and has made a significant direction switch:

HAN Guangzhe,

He previously had a heavy position in new energy, and gradually increased his position in AI after the second quarter of 2023, and the fourth quarter was close to full.

In the first quarter of this year, he went back and bought CATL, Sungrow, Deye shares, BYD, and Follett into the top ten heavy stocks.

The reason is: although it has become a consensus that the trend of AI continues to rise, the new energy faucet sharpened during the production capacity clearance period is also worth looking forward to.

Peaking in stages?

FANG Jian,

He reduced his position in AI, increased his holdings in the semiconductor industry chain, and bought North Huachuang, China Micro Corporation, and Tuojing Technology into the top three heavy stocks.

Peaking in stages?

LI Xin,

At the same time, he increased his holdings in semiconductors and new energy, and bought North Huachuang, CATL, and Yangguan Power into the top ten heavy stocks.

Peaking in stages?

Kim Azusaai,

Increased holdings of traditional Chinese medicine and public utilities.

As for the reason for rebalancing,

Jin Zicai mainly reduced the direction of the media, he believes that in the current macro environment, the media sector is temporarily difficult to have a strong performance line, and some supply-side clear industries may have opportunities for fundamental reversal.

Peaking in stages?

generally

The power of AI has indeed begun to loosen, some fund managers have greatly reduced their positions, and some have changed their positions significantly, but they have changed directions, so you may wish to pay attention to the risks~

More news:

1. The central bank shouted to the bond market

In response to the continuous decline in long-term treasury bond yields, the relevant person in charge of the central bank summarized the reasons: the essence is that the supply has decreased, which has led institutional investors to rush for long-term treasury bonds and depressed the yield. In the future, with the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, the "asset shortage" situation will be alleviated, and the yield of long-term government bonds will also rise.

Regardless of whether this summary is not in place, the market believes it anyway. Today, the 30-year Treasury ETF is down 1.09% and the 10-year Treasury ETF is down 0.45%.

There are also many fixed income tycoons who remind the bond market risks in their quarterly reports.

For example, Guo Jun,

He believes that the rapid decline in long-term bond interest rates is caused by overcrowded transactions, which is similar to the reasons summarized by the central bank. When capital gains become a hot spot and a major source of income for the market, it may also be a time for risk to accumulate.

China's interest rate, in the long run, looks at real estate, in the short term, overseas, the real estate sector determines the interest rate center, and the non-real estate sector determines the rhythm of interest rate fluctuations.

Considering the fiscal expansion and the resilience of exports, it is not difficult to achieve 5% economic growth this year, and the expectation of further easing is not high, so his position is mainly short- and medium-term bonds to avoid the risk of a possible correction of long-term bonds.

Peaking in stages?

2. In the first quarter, public funds increased and decreased positions

In the first quarter, the industries in which public funds increased their positions were: non-ferrous metals, communications, household appliances, public utilities, power equipment, and banks.

The industries with more position reductions are: medicine, electronics, computers, and military industry.

Peaking in stages?

Let's look at the ups and downs,

Among the industries that have increased their positions, except for power equipment, they are rising, and the industries that have reduced their positions have fallen greatly.

So, why did the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, and military industries perform so poorly in the first quarter? The answer is that institutions are selling. Institutions have collectively misjudged the pharmaceutical market this time, and continued to increase their positions in the previous quarters, and then significantly reduced their positions in the first quarter of this year, and CSI Medical hit a new low.

Peaking in stages?

3. Changes in institutional heavy stocks

Also take a look at the changes in the heavy stocks of public funds.

In the first quarter of this year, the public fund adjusted its position quite violently, and the top ten heavy stocks changed 5 at once, Zijin Mining, Midea Group, Luxshare Precision, Zhongji Innolight, and Yangtze River Power are the first time (in the past 8 quarters) to enter the top ten heavy stocks in the public offering, and the number of heavy positions are more than 500.

Zijin Mining represents gold logic.

Midea Group and Yangtze Power represent value logic.

Zhongji InnoLight is the leader of optical modules and the concept of AI.

Lixun Precision is a consumer electronics.

The direction that the institution is optimistic about is a clear card.

Of course, the fundamentals are still stable, Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and CATL are firmly in Diaoyutai, and they have been in the list of the top ten heavy stocks in the public offering for the past 8 quarters.

Peaking in stages?

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice