In recent days, the wheat market has fallen to a "dim day", in the domestic winter wheat producing areas, the center of gravity of the listed price of milling enterprises has plummeted, among them, the quotation of enterprises in many places has fallen below 1.3 yuan / catty, and the wheat quotation of some flour mills has fallen to 1.275 yuan / catty......
Wheat prices have been hit hard, mainly due to a number of factors, which are roughly analyzed as follows:
Affected by the price difference between grain sources, wheat starch is less cost-effective, corn starch has obvious advantages, wheat lacks industrial use, and the market mostly returns to the status of "rations"! At this stage, the domestic flour consumption capacity is insufficient, the temperature rises and the impact of precipitation weather, flour storage is not easy, downstream demand follow-up is more cautious, traders are not enough to undertake capacity, the risk of flour inventory of milling enterprises increases, and enterprises reduce prices and promotions, but the effect is general, mainstream milling enterprises passively reduce the operating rate, and the phenomenon of wheat harvest is increasing;
Second, the profit of by-products of flour enterprises is under pressure! Due to the continuous decline in corn prices, imported soybeans are concentrated in Hong Kong, the prospect of soybean meal is poor, and the enthusiasm of feed enterprises to purchase bran is reduced, in terms of domestic mainstream factories, Wudeli bran quotation fell to about 1320~1380 yuan/ton, and the center of gravity of bran prices fell below 0.7 yuan/catty, which intensified the pressure of loss of flour mills!
Third, the pace of wheat auctions has accelerated! Due to the sluggish consumer demand, the difficulty of rotating wheat from grain reserves and grain depots at all levels has increased, and the rate of unsold wheat and the average transaction price have been declining. It is difficult to alleviate the risk of selling pressure on grain storage sources, the pace of bidding out of the warehouse is accelerated, and the grain supply pattern is relaxed!
Superimposed, the scale of domestic imported wheat is relatively high, and Russia's low-priced wheat enters the port, which also affects market sentiment and exacerbates the mentality of demand subjects to reduce prices!
However, as the quotation of milling enterprises has fallen below 1.3 yuan/catty, the market resistance has gradually warmed up, the decline of the wheat market has slowed down, and the market may have a short-term or repaired performance!
According to data analysis, on April 24, the domestic wheat producing areas, milling enterprises listed quotations updated, wheat quotations showed a stable and weak trend, the decline weakened significantly, the specific market is as follows:
In Shandong, Yishui Qingyuan fell by 1 point, and the execution price was 1.325 yuan/jin; Qingdao Wudeli fell by 1 point, and the price was quoted at 1.31 yuan; Luhua flour fell by 1 point, and the price was quoted at 1.315 yuan/jin; the average price of wheat in Shandong was 1.303 yuan/jin, and the listed price of milling enterprises remained at about 1.28~1.35 yuan/jin;
Hebei market: Hebei Jinsha Henanhe and Shahe, the listed price of enterprises fell by 0.5 points, the quotation of milling enterprises was 1.29 yuan/jin, the mainstream wheat price in Hebei was 1.29~1.33 yuan/jin, and the average price was 1.296 yuan/jin;
Henan market: COFCO Anyang fell 2 points, the execution price was 1.3 yuan/jin, Xinxiang Keming starch fell 1 point, the execution price was 1.32 yuan/jin, the average price of wheat in Henan was 1.313 yuan, and the mainstream enterprises quoted 1.275~1.335 yuan/jin;
Personally, I believe that the decline in wheat prices may come to an end, in a short period of time, the market may enter the stage of consolidation, digest the decline in the early stage, wheat space is limited!
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