According to Russian media reports, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested by law enforcement agencies for corruption, and when the new Russian government is about to be officially sworn in, the imprisonment of this deputy minister-level senior official may become the beginning of a new round of "big reshuffle" at the top of the Russian military.
[Russian Deputy Defense Minister Tomur Ivanov arrested by law enforcement for corruption]
Judging from the information sent by the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Ivanov was arrested because he was suspected of accepting bribes and the amount of money was huge. Although the investigative committee did not give more details of the case, combined with the criteria for defining "huge amounts" in relevant Russian laws, Ivanov received a bribe of at least 1 million rubles. If convicted, Ivanov could face up to 15 years in prison.
At present, the deputy minister has been taken to the detention center and law enforcement is applying to the court for a formal arrest warrant. At the same time, several people suspected of being involved in the transfer of funds were also arrested.
According to public information, Ivanov is not from the Russian military system, but a standard civilian official, who has worked in Russian energy enterprises, local governments of the Moscow region, and construction enterprises under the Ministry of Defense, and was appointed deputy defense minister in 2016, in charge of military infrastructure construction, medical security, and property management.
[Ivanov is in charge of engineering construction and other affairs in the Russian Ministry of Defense]
Because of his previous work in various enterprises, Ivanov has always been considered one of the wealthier Russian security officials, and it is estimated that his family's total assets exceed 100 million rubles. But in Russia, rumors of corruption by Ivanov himself and his family members have persisted.
According to Russian opposition figures, the Ivanov family owns a 19th-century aristocratic estate worth 600 million rubles, and many of the high-spending activities of their family members in Russia and abroad are paid for by defense construction contractors with ties to the military. However, the relevant Russian departments have not taken action against Ivanov.
If Ivanov's arrest this time is only because of corruption, then it may be because he did not stop after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and still took advantage of some construction projects, which affected the progress of the war and touched Putin's bottom line.
[Ivanov himself and his family members have long been corrupt in Russia]
At the same time, although this kind of corruption of high-ranking officials at the deputy ministerial level has been exposed, it may have a certain impact on the morale of the Russian army on the front line and the Russian people. But if handled properly, Putin's government can still show its resolve on the fight against corruption by arresting Ivanov, which in turn boosts morale.
However, judging from some details disclosed by the media and the reactions of all parties in Russia, it is very likely that Ivanov's arrest is not as simple as anti-corruption.
The timing of Ivanov's arrest is delicate. On May 7, Putin will be re-sworn in as president for a new term, when the current government will resign en masse and be reappointed.
It is widely believed that Putin will take this opportunity to launch a series of new internal personnel adjustments. Judging from what is known so far, it is possible that many people, including First Deputy Prime Minister Belousov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, will voluntarily resign, receive a medal, and then be placed in the upper house of parliament.
[Putin will make a personnel adjustment in the near future]
Therefore, Ivanov's arrest may indicate that Putin will carry out a major change of blood for the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Moreover, Ivanov has a close relationship with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and both served in the Moscow regional government around 2012. After that, Shoigu succeeded Serdyukov as Minister of Defense, and Ivanov went to work as a leader in a construction company under the Ministry of Defense. By 2016, Ivanov was directly promoted to deputy defense minister.
Therefore, Ivanov is actually a capable officer under Shoigu. Previously, Russian law enforcement agencies have not launched an investigation against Ivanov, which is likely to hinder Shoigu's face.
The outside world now generally believes that Ivanov's arrest is, to a certain extent, Putin's plan in advance, cutting off Shoigu's wings within the Ministry of Defense, and preparing for the replacement of the defense minister in the future.
[Ivanov is the right-hand man of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu]
But this does not mean that Shoigu will also be involved in corruption investigations and leave the Russian Ministry of Defense in a less than honorable way.
After all, Shoigu is the core figure of the Siroviki group, and in the more than 10 years he has been the Minister of Defense, he can be regarded as conscientious and has made a lot of contributions to Russia's national defense construction. Especially after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian army fell into a bitter battle on the front line, and Gerasimov and others focused on commanding operations, it was Shoigu who led the Ministry of Defense and cooperated with other departments to promote the transfer of the Russian military-industrial system to wartime mode and ensure the stability of supply on the front line.
Therefore, if Putin really wants to change the defense minister, it will be after internal consultations, and Shoigu will submit his resignation on his own initiative. After that, Shoigu may move to other government posts or enter the Russian parliament.
Another point that needs to be added is that after Ivanov's arrest, both the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin reacted calmly, the Russian Ministry of Defense did not speak out on the matter, and the Kremlin only said that Putin and Shoigu were aware of the relevant situation. This shows that on the matter of arresting Ivanov, Putin most likely communicated with Shoigu in advance.
[Shoigu should have known about Ivanov's arrest]
It can be seen from this that although Ivanov's imprisonment this time was due to the internal personnel adjustment of the Russian government, it was more due to the fact that his own problems were too serious, which aroused Putin's dissatisfaction, and even Shoigu could not come forward to guarantee it.
At the same time, this personnel adjustment also shows from the side that under the condition that the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front tends to stabilize and the Russian army can advance steadily, Putin now finally has enough energy to solve the problems exposed in Russia and ensure that Russia can cope with the increasingly complex international situation in the future.
For a period of time to come, the Russian government and military system will inevitably undergo a series of personnel adjustments, and many incompetent and disobedient people will be taken advantage of the opportunity to take down and leave their posts in a less than honorable way. Lavrov and other officials who have distinguished themselves but are already old may also retire to make way for younger and more powerful juniors.