【Copper Summit Live Broadcast】Current situation and prospect of copper ore, copper rod, copper plate, strip and foil and other industrial chains Hard-core technology sharing Overseas investment opportunities are discovered
The world blooms in April,
Spring and Jingming are born to the sun!
Recently, the commodity market has also sprung up, among them, Shanghai copper has refreshed a new high in the past 18 years, and London copper has also refreshed a new high in the past 12 years.
Behind the sharp rise in copper prices, concerns about copper supply shortages, global economic trends, monetary policies of major central banks, and downstream consumption increments have attracted much attention from the market.
From April 22nd to 24th, the 2024 (19th) SMM Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo jointly organized by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) and Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd. was held in Sofitel Hangzhou Yingguan!
This article is the live broadcast content of the Electrical Transmission and Distribution Forum, the Copper Bar Industry Development Forum, the Copper Plate, Strip and Foil Industry Development Forum, the Copper Raw Materials and Consumption Development Forum, and the Strategic Consulting Summit Forum, so stay tuned!
April 24 schedule
2024 SMM Electrician Transmission & Distribution Forum
Topic: Copper and aluminum substitution in the power transmission and distribution (wire and cable) industry in the next 10 years
Guest: Fei Changyun, Senior Consulting Manager of SMM
1. Industry background
Copper demand in the power sector
In 2023, China's copper consumption will be about 16.34 million mt, and the power industry will use 35% of copper, making it the largest copper consumer.
Power Industry Flow Chart and Classification: The power industry is divided into power generation, transmission and distribution
Cable manufacturers: high-voltage cable manufacturers are highly concentrated, while medium and low-voltage cable manufacturers are more scattered, with a large number of enterprises and a high degree of product homogeneity
2. The current situation and prospect of copper and aluminum substitution of wires and cables
Drivers of aluminium instead of copper: With a clear price advantage, as well as good physical properties and abundant reserves, aluminium poses a clear substitution threat to copper.
Analysis of copper demand changes in the wire and cable industry: comprehensive factor assessment, the overall copper unit consumption of the wire and cable industry is on a downward trend.
Analysis of copper used in the power industry: In the power industry, the density of copper used in the distribution end is the highest, followed by the power generation end, and finally the transmission end.
2.1 Power generation end
Traditional power generation process: For traditional power generation methods, thermal power, nuclear power and hydropower, copper is mainly consumed in plant equipment, such as plant transformers, plant cables (high voltage, low voltage, weak current, control cables, etc.).
The power generation circuit of the power plant is divided into the main circuit and the branch circuit. 90% of the generated electricity is boosted to high voltage by the main transformer through the main circuit, and then sent to the transmission line of the national grid. The remaining 10% is used for the internal operations of the plant.
The main transmission lines of thermal power and nuclear power consume less copper, because the power of the generator is too large, the line is generally an IPB bus with an aluminum conductor, and only the main circuit of the generator less than 300MW may use copper bar.
The hydropower power is generally less than 300MW, and the main circuit uses copper rods.
2010-2050 copper unit consumption of traditional power generation methods
Overall, under the influence of miniaturization, the unit consumption of copper in the three traditional power generation methods is decreasing.
The copper consumption of hydropower is significantly higher than that of thermal power and nuclear power, with a total copper consumption of more than 3 tons/MW, while that of thermal power and nuclear power is less than 2 tons/MW.
From 2010 to 2050, there will be no copper substitution for the three traditional power generation methods. The unit consumption of copper gradually decreases under the influence of miniaturization brought about by the scale effect.
Miniaturization comes from the following aspects: the increase in the installed power of the generator will lead to a decrease in the unit consumption of copper, such as thermal power generation, usually in the main circuit of the generator of > 300MW, the IPB bus is used, and the proportion of IPB will increase with the increase of installed power.
Copper substitution analysis for conventional power generation
Traditional power generation is considered to be the basic energy source and an important source of electricity in China. According to the regulations, copper conductors must be used for critical electricity. Therefore, it is almost impossible for copper to be replaced.
Onshore/offshore wind power mainly uses copper cable processes
The main copper-consuming components of onshore wind power are cable 1 and cable 2, and cable 4 includes two parts: overhead line and cable line, and the main copper-consuming components of offshore wind power are cable 1 and cable 4, and cable 4 is all cable lines.
Copper unit consumption of wind power
It is expected that by 2050, the copper unit consumption of onshore wind power generation will drop significantly, which is mainly affected by lightweight and miniaturization, and for offshore wind power, because cable 4 is only a cable line, its copper unit consumption is much higher than that of onshore wind power. In the future, the unit consumption of copper in offshore wind power will gradually decrease under the influence of miniaturization.
》SMM: Trend Outlook for Copper and Aluminum Substitution in the Wire and Cable Industry in the Next 10 Years [SMM Copper Summit]
Topic: Basic research on the application of new copper alloys with high strength and high conductivity
Guest: Gong Shen, Professor/Ph.D. Supervisor of Central South University
Theme: Smart Zero-carbon Park Ecosystem and Collaborative Innovation Model
Guest: Liu Daowei, Deputy Director of the Department of Power System Research Institute, China Electric Power Research Institute
Topic: Responding to Raw Material Price Fluctuations Cost Control Means and Innovative Methods for Enterprises
Guest: Pan Zhibin, head of the bulk material procurement platform of Chint Electric Co., Ltd
Topic: The development trend and new requirements of switchgear technology in the context of new power system
Guest: Shao Xianjun, Senior Engineer of Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd
2024 SMM Copper Bar Industry Development Forum
Topic: Efficient use of recycled copper in a low-carbon economy
Guest: Zhang Bin, Deputy General Manager of Marketing Center of Hailiang Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd
Upgrade thinking
Consciousness escalation
Benefits of recycled copper:
Supplement of copper resources: The recycled copper industry is an important part of the development of the mainland copper industry, and recycled copper can be used as an important supplement to copper raw materials. The development of the recycled copper industry is of great significance to solve the problems of low self-sufficiency rate of copper resources and high dependence on foreign countries in the mainland.
Helping to save energy and reduce emissions: In 2022, the mainland's recycled copper production will reach 3.75 million tons, saving 680 million tons of mineral resources and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 10.5 million tons. In 2023, mainland recycled copper production reached 395 tons, up 5.3% year-on-year.
Action escalation: Its introduction should systematically solve production, quality inspection, procurement and sales, rather than a single-line solution.
Linkage upgrading: international and domestic market linkage, production and sales linkage, production and sales linkage.
Industrial upgrading: higher standards, higher quality, and more circular
Green tracks
Contributing to carbon neutrality: China has clearly set the goal of "carbon peak" by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
Circular City Mine
Copper materials are recovered and reused in urban mines.
》Efficient Utilization of Recycled Copper and Cost Reduction and Green Transformation and Upgrading under the Low-carbon Economy [SMM Copper Summit]
Topic: Research status of copper alloy bars for automotive spot welding electrodes
Guest: Li Zengde, Director of the Advanced Copper Alloy Research Institute of Research Institute of Engineering Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd
Topic: Application of copper alloy rods in connectors
Guest: Zhou Mingliang, Director of Research Center of Shenzhen Connector Industry Association
Topic: Multi-objective optimization design of copper alloys for rods and wires based on machine learning
Guest: Guo Chunwen, Professor, School of Materials and Engineering, Zhengzhou University
Topic: Research progress and development trend of high-performance copper alloy rod and wire
Guest: Lei Qian, associate professor of Central South University
》Analysis of the current market situation of the global copper alloy industry High-performance copper alloy rod and wire research and progress [SMM Copper Summit]
Theme: Current status and outlook of copper rods in 2024
Guest: Liu Lu, Senior Analyst of SMM Copper
》2024 Copper Rod Market Status and Prospects: Focus on Southeast Asian Countries and the Belt and Road Demand Growth Points [SMM Copper Summit]
2024 SMM Copper, Strip and Foil Industry Development Forum
Topic: The latest technology and development trend of the new generation of intelligent connected vehicle connectors
Guest: Liang Yutong, Secretary General of Guangdong Connector Association
The "New Four Modernizations" of the Automotive Industry
The "New Four Modernizations" of the automotive industry is the product of the integration of a new generation of information and communication, new energy, new materials and other technologies with the automotive industry, and its rapid development not only brings about the deepening of the industrial ecology of the vehicle manufacturing industry, but also comprehensively reshapes the industrial competition pattern of auto parts. Electrification, intelligence, networking, and sharing are becoming the development trend of the entire automotive industry, and major OEMs are also working hard in the direction of the "New Four Modernizations".
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF COPPER USED IN THE WIRING HARNESS CONNECTOR OF THE NEW ENERGY INTELLIGENT NETWORKED VEHICLE IS ABOUT 38KG, WHICH IS MORE THAN DOUBLE THE COPPER USED IN THE TRADITIONAL FUEL VEHICLE WIRING HARNESS CONNECTOR OF ABOUT 17KG, AND THE HIGH PRICE OF THE VEHICLE WIRING HARNESS IS INCREASED FROM 2,000 YUAN FOR FUEL VEHICLES AND BICYCLES TO 5,000 YUAN.
1. Electrification
Electrification refers to the electrification of the vehicle powertrain, that is, the use of an electric motor system instead of the traditional internal combustion engine powertrain. Including hybrid (H E V, H P E V), pure electric (B E V), range extender (E R E V), fuel cell ( F C V) and other power forms, major enterprises have laid out to adapt to different user needs. Even the lithium-ion battery technology used in today's hottest pure electric (B E V) models is constantly evolving and is far from mature.
The impact of electrification on automotive wiring harnesses is mainly the addition of high-voltage systems, high-voltage wires, high-voltage connectors, large-diameter aluminum wires, high-current Busbars and its iteratively optimized products will be developed and applied, and their technical parameters, test requirements and test methods will also be continuously verified to meet the requirements of electrification. At present, the mainstream of high-voltage system of new energy vehicles is high voltage 8 0 0 V and high current 400A, and the next generation technology will develop towards high voltage 1200V and high current 8 0 0 A.
2. Intelligent
The impact of intelligence on automotive wiring harnesses is mainly due to the large increase in demand for wiring harnesses, forcing the automotive design architecture to be upgraded, from the original ICE architecture of fuel vehicles to BEV architecture, and optimized to a similar SVA architecture in the future.
The new architecture and new principles make the wiring harness design more concise, and more energy can be put into the development, research and testing of automotive Ethernet, special wires, and special connectors to ensure the reliable connection of unmanned driving, intelligent parking, 540-degree image and other functions.
With the improvement of vehicle intelligence, it will bring about an increase in the number of bicycle sensors and an increase in the popularity of the Internet of Vehicles. Under this trend, the vehicle wiring harness market will usher in two important changes:
1) With the increase in the number of sensors and the number of V2 X antennas, the amount of data cables and connectors used in bicycles within the framework of existing technologies will increase significantly.
2) In order to improve the safety of intelligent vehicles, the continuous improvement of the key performance of sensors, including resolution, is very obvious, which will significantly increase the transmission rate requirements of data cables. High-speed vehicle signal connectors are mainly made of high-conductivity copper, phosphor bronze and brass.
In the era of intelligent vehicles, safety is one of the core pain points of intelligent vehicle improvement, and the performance improvement of ADAS sensors and the auxiliary support of Internet of Vehicles are important solutions to continuously improve the safety of intelligent driving. With the improvement of the performance of ADAS sensors such as high-definition cameras and lidar, as well as the popularization of Internet of Vehicles applications, the use of high-performance Ethernet cables and coaxial wiring harnesses for bicycles will be significantly increased.
HD Camera:
The 8-megapixel camera has become standard in high-end intelligent vehicles. The proliferation of high-pixel cameras will significantly drive the use of high-performance coaxial and Ethernet cables. An 8-megapixel 16-bit front-facing camera that runs at 60 frames per second with data rates of up to 1GB/s. Traditional single-core shielded cables will no longer suffice, and high-performance coaxial data cables or Ethernet cables will be required.
Lidar:
Lidar also has relatively high data transmission requirements. The traditional data cable within 100 megabits can no longer meet the data transmission requirements of LiDAR, and the data rate needs to reach the gigabit level.
3. Networking
Networking consists of three parts: inter-vehicle network, vehicle-cloud network, and in-vehicle network. The vehicle-cloud network adopts medium and short-range communication technology to realize vehicle/vehicle-road coordination, such as LTE-V and 5G, which requires extremely short delay and high reliability, and needs to support active safety applications; the vehicle-cloud network mainly applies Telematics communication through the connection between the vehicle and the cloud, such as 3G/4G/5G; has a wide coverage and can be connected to the Internet, with a large delay, which is not suitable for emergency safety applications; the vehicle-in-vehicle network refers to the wired connection between the vehicle and the internal sensors, CAN BUS, High-speed Ethernet: wireless connection between the car and mobile phones, including Bluetooth, WiFi, NFC.
Networking realizes the online vehicle and various service applications based on the network and the corresponding data collection. Networking makes the vehicle no longer a tool that cannot "grow", and the functions and performance of the vehicle can continue to grow iteratively through OTA technology. Moreover, the Internet enables the vehicle infotainment system to obtain online data and services, making the vehicle an entrance to the Internet world after computers and mobile phones, and at the same time making it possible to collect a large number of various data during vehicle operation. In the future, the real-time operation of vehicles can be directly controlled by the network, and most of the data of vehicles can be exchanged with the cloud in real time, which is the time when networking will mature.
4. Sharing
Sharing refers to the sharing of vehicles and travel. Some people refer to it as servitization, which means that mobility will be provided as a service, thus changing the current situation where everyone needs to buy a car. Sharing is still only a business model based on network location services.
The impact of networking and sharing on automotive wiring harnesses is mainly due to the increase in the types and quantities of on-board special wires and special connectors. The special wire has the characteristics of high reliability, low electromagnetic radiation, low power consumption, low latency and synchronous real-time technology, and the characteristics of this product are completely different from traditional wires, so it needs to pose new challenges to design and testing capabilities. Special wires/connectors have developed rapidly, from single type to integrated type, reducing volume, improving integration and improving factory assembly efficiency.
Intelligent Connected Vehicle Network Architecture and Connectivity Technology
The development trend of intelligent networked vehicle network architecture
In the future, each connected car will be equipped with hundreds of connectors
Applications for automotive Ethernet connectors
Application of vehicle Ethernet cable: domestic production is making efforts; Foreign wire suppliers such as LEONI and G&G have developed early, and have ready-made high-bandwidth wire products, but the delivery cycle is long. FUCHS and other domestic wire suppliers have small-batch products in the test of the main engine factory, and the domestic cost advantage is outstanding.
Prospects for automotive Ethernet cable assemblies: 1. Faster transmission rate, 2. Application of connector integration and miniaturization, 3. Design & fully automatic production and assembly of stamping and forming.
Key technologies and development trends of harness connectors
1. Lightweight
In the context of the "New Four Modernizations" of automobiles, based on the problems and challenges of the wiring harness industry, the wiring harness field will develop in five directions in the future: lightweight, high-voltage, high-speed, platform-based, and intelligent manufacturing.
1.1 Optimize the architecture and reduce the length of the wiring harness
The vehicle network architecture has gradually evolved from the traditional distributed architecture to the centralized domain architecture, and the domain controller integration architecture is adopted, and the wiring harness length is reduced by 50% compared with the traditional vehicle.
It cites the SVA architecture proposed by Aptiv for illustration.
1.2 Application of new products such as aluminum wires and copper-clad aluminum alloy wires
》The development trend of the new generation of intelligent connected vehicle connectors and the demand analysis of the copper industry chain [SMM Copper Summit]
Topic: Application and development of copper plate, strip and foil in electronic circuit industry
Guest: Tong Qingping, Chief Scientist of China Nonferrous Metals Mining Group Co., Ltd
Topic: Development and application of key copper alloys
Guest: Guo Huiwen, Director of Technology R&D Center of Chinalco Luoyang Copper Processing Co., Ltd
Topic: Trends and future development directions of China's electrolytic copper foil industry
Guest: Pan Jianfeng, Chairman of Zhejiang Garden New Energy Co., Ltd
Topic: Research on high-performance copper alloys for automotive connectors
Guest: Yanmin Zhang, Professor, School of Materials Science and Engineering, Henan University of Science and Technology
Topic: Application of intelligent technology in copper alloy design and strip processing
Guest: Zhang Shihong, second-level researcher/doctoral supervisor of the Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Topic: Automotive electronics features and what to expect from PCBs
Guest: Yang Xiaojian, former Vice President of Technology of Bosch China Investment Co., Ltd
2024 SMM Copper Raw Materials and Consumption Development Forum
Topic: Analysis of the market status and development trend of China's copper smelting industry
Guest: Dong Zhunqin, Chief Engineer of Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd
Dong Zhunqin, chief engineer of Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd., and Qu Shengli, acting president, analyzed the market status and development trend of China's copper smelting industry.
The role of copper in the national economy
Properties of copper
Copper is one of the earliest metal materials recognized and used by human beings.
Copper has excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, cold resistance, corrosion resistance and processing properties and alloying ability.
Meet the requirements of modern engineering for special properties such as material strength, low temperature toughness, elasticity, corrosion resistance, wear resistance, softening resistance, and cutting processing.
Copper also has antimicrobial and regenerative properties that other metals do not have, and it is used not only as a structural material, but also as a functional material.
Uses of copper
At present, there are 256 kinds of copper and copper alloys that are widely used, forming eight categories and tens of thousands of specifications of processed products represented by tubes, rods, molds, wires, plates, strips, foils and strips. The copper industry is an important basic industry of the national economy and one of the supporting industries for industrialization.
According to its introduction, among the existing industries in the mainland, 91% of the industries that use copper are construction, electricity, electronic products, transportation and new energy.
Consumption of copper
According to data released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), global copper consumption in 2023 will be 27.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and China's copper consumption will be 16.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%.
The highest proportion of domestic copper consumption structure is power equipment, accounting for 37%, followed by construction, accounting for 21%, and home appliances, accounting for 15%. The new energy industry has driven a significant increase in copper demand, accounting for 19% of the country's copper consumption, a year-on-year increase of 52%.
The current situation and existing problems of the copper smelting industry
Current situation of copper smelting industry:
1. China's refined copper production capacity ranks first in the world
Domestic consumption has reached more than 50% of the world's output, and the huge market has enabled the rapid development of the mainland copper smelting industry. Continental has become the world's largest producer and seller of refined copper, and occupies an important position in the global copper industry.
2. The level of technical equipment has been greatly improved
It expounds the development process of copper smelting technology in mainland China.
3. Form a complete copper industry chain
4. The copper smelting process is in full bloom
It introduced the copper smelting process, representative enterprises and the maximum production capacity of a single series that has been built, and also introduced the output of copper smelting enterprises, copper smelting and by-product sulfuric acid. In addition, it also interpreted the upward volatility of copper prices.
5. The location of copper smelters has been turned around
With the increasing environmental protection requirements and increasingly fierce competition, reducing costs has become an effective means for enterprises to get rid of difficulties, the industrial layout of copper smelting is developing in the direction of becoming more and more dispersed, and the importance of location advantages is becoming increasingly obvious, especially in coastal areas (low transportation costs), areas with or close to resources, areas with low sulfuric acid sales pressure, and areas with large environmental capacity, smelting enterprises will have more competitive advantages. In recent years, the layout of domestic smelting capacity has also been developing to these regions, and Fujian, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi have successively become new copper smelting layout areas, and even the industrial layout has developed to overseas copper ore resources.
6. Remarkable results in energy conservation and carbon reduction
With the wide application of new processes and new equipment in the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, the energy consumption level of enterprise production is also constantly improving, and some large enterprises have exceeded the world's advanced level, and the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of copper smelting process (copper concentrate - copper cathode) in 2022 is 147.6kgce/t, which is far better than the "Energy Consumption Limit per Unit Product of Non-ferrous Heavy Metal Smelting Enterprises" GB25323-2023 (implemented on June 1, 2024) Level 1 value.
Due to the unbalanced development of domestic copper enterprises, there is a large gap in energy consumption indicators, and copper smelting still needs the joint efforts of the whole industry to get rid of the hat of high energy consumption.
7. Industry integration and industrial chain extension
Copper smelting enterprises can improve their ability to coordinate the development of the industrial chain by acquiring and merging industrial chain enterprises or acquiring enterprises outside the industry. In particular, leading enterprises continue to expand to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and the sustainable development ability of enterprises has been significantly enhanced.
Problems in the copper smelting industry:
1. The problem of insufficient resource guarantee is still prominent
》Qu Shengli: Problems and prospects in the copper smelting industry need to give full play to the advantages of multi-metal mixed synergistic smelting in the future [SMM Copper Summit]
Topic: Supply and demand of China's copper concentrate market
Guest: Dong Qiaolong, General Manager of Marketing Branch of Western Mining Co., Ltd
Topic: Supply and consumption of blister copper
Guest: Cui Xiangdong, Minister of China Nonferrous Metals Group Chifeng Fubon Copper Co., Ltd
Topic: The Application of Futures Derivatives in the Copper Industry
Guest: Zhang Chen, Senior Director of OTC Business Headquarters of Zhejiang Yongan Capital Management Co., Ltd
Theme: Recycling, utilization and outlook of recycled copper raw materials in China in 2024
Guest: Liang Kaihui, Senior Analyst of SMM Copper
Theme: Financial Solutions for Commodity Industry Chain
Guest: Xu Jian, Deputy General Manager of Commodity Finance Department of Shengjing Bank Co., Ltd. Shanghai Branch
Topic: Copper market in the context of copper concentrate raw material supply shortage
Guest: Wu Yifan, Senior Analyst of SMM Copper
2024 SMM Strategic Consulting Summit Forum - Discovery of Overseas Investment Opportunities in the Copper Industry Chain
Topic: Investment Policies and Future Trend Forecasts of Major Global Copper Producing Areas: The Impact of Geopolitical and Policy Risks on Copper Industry Investment
Global Copper Mining Investment Opportunity Outlook: Focusing on investment risk management, investment costs and returns, ESG practices, etc
Analysis of the development of the recycled copper market: the impact of overseas recycled copper raw materials on the copper supply chain
Guest: Wang Hemeng, SMM Consulting Manager
Theme: Copper consumption potential forecast of emerging markets along the "Belt and Road": around Southeast Asia, India, South America and other markets
Investment attractiveness rating of copper processing enterprises in emerging markets along the "Belt and Road": focusing on the business environment, preferential policies, supply and demand gaps, etc
Guest: Fei Changyun, Senior Consulting Manager of SMM