At the 2024 (19th) SMM Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo - Copper Raw Materials and Consumption Development Forum jointly organized by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) and Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd., Cui Xiangdong, director of the supply and marketing department of China Nonferrous Metals Group Chifeng Fubang Copper Co., Ltd., studied and judged the supply and consumption of blister copper.
Company Background and Overview
Chifeng Fubon Copper Co., Ltd. will "take the improvement of 100,000 tons of copper smelting as the main line, the development of resources as the main direction, the development of the chemical industry as the auxiliary wing, and the comprehensive utilization as the starting point", take the road of circular economy, safety, environmental protection, green and healthy development, carry forward the company's corporate culture of "hard work and prosperity, innovation and prosperity", and strive to build a small and beautiful copper smelting enterprise.
Production process and technology upgrading
With the increasing attention to environmental protection and sustainable development around the world, enterprises, as the main body of social and economic activities, shoulder an unshirkable responsibility. In such a context, Chifeng Fubon Copper Co., Ltd. took a firm step in 2023 and launched a far-reaching energy-saving and emission reduction upgrade project. It is expected to be officially launched on June 30 this year, mainly focusing on blister copper smelting, using the continuous copper smelting process of oxygen-rich side blowing furnace + multi-lance top blowing furnace, supporting copper smelting integrating flue gas acid production, waste heat power generation and slag beneficiation with two rotations and two suction + pre-conversion.
1. The main process flow of the sulfuric acid plant: in order to meet the new production load, a pre-conversion and pre-absorption device is added to the original acid production system (the pre-absorption is replaced by a low-temperature waste heat recovery device) to form an efficient "three to three absorption" process. The flue gas of the smelting furnace and the blowing furnace is mixed after passing through the dust collector, and the flue gas is washed and purified, cooled and dehydrated through the two-stage power wave, cooling tower, electric demisting and drying tower. After the flue gas passes through the drying tower, at the outlet of the SO2 main fan, part of the flue gas (55-60%) is extracted and mixed with the dilution air and enters the pre-conversion and pre-absorption, and then enters the existing "3+1" two-turn two-suction acid production process through the booster fan to continue, and the small part of the unabsorbed sulfur dioxide gas is discharged after reaching the standard after being treated by hydrogen peroxide desulfurization and electric mist eliminator. The main products are 93%, 98% and 105% sulfuric acid.
Production process and technology upgrading
2. The main process flow of the slag concentrator: the processing capacity of the slag concentrator is 1000 tons/day, the crushing operation is a three-stage closed-circuit process, and the particle size of the crushed product is ≤ 12mm. The grinding operation is a two-stage closed-circuit process, and the overflow fineness is -0.038mm, accounting for 85%. The flotation process is one rough separation, three selections, and two sweeping operations. The copper mineral collector in the flotation operation is Z-200 with a dosage of 60g/t, and the foaming agent is 2# oil with a dosage of 40g/t. The designed flotation concentrate grade is 20% copper, and the tailings contain 0.250% copper and 50% iron.
3. The main process of the power plant: One of the highlights of this technical upgrade is the reform of the converter blowing process. Although the traditional converter blowing is stable and reliable, it has certain limitations when dealing with large-scale production. Therefore, Fubon Copper has introduced the multi-lance top blowing process, which not only improves the blowing efficiency, but also significantly reduces energy consumption and production costs. The multi-lance design makes the reaction in the furnace more uniform, which improves the copper extraction rate and product quality, and also reduces the exhaust gas emissions, which meets the environmental requirements.
4. Energy saving and emission reduction measures and achievements: part of the saturated steam (4.2Mpa) of the side blowing furnace and top blowing furnace waste heat boiler enters the steam turbine for power generation, and part of it is used for steam drag of the SO2 fan, and the low-pressure saturated steam (0.8Mpa) generated by the pre-conversion low-temperature waste heat recovery boiler enters the rear impeller of the steam turbine unit for power generation, and the remaining part of the steam is sold out.
5. Design production capacity: The implementation of the technology upgrade project is expected to significantly improve the company's production capacity. According to the design plan, the new process will achieve the production target of 10-120,000 tons of blister copper and 400,000 tons of sulfuric acid per year. The achievement of this goal will not only meet the continuous growth of market demand for copper and sulfuric acid, but also lay a solid foundation for the company's long-term development.
6. Environmental protection improvement analysis: In terms of environmental protection, the technology upgrading project has also achieved remarkable results. By optimizing the process, updating energy-saving equipment, and applying automatic control technology, we have succeeded in reducing energy consumption and pollutant emissions in the smelting process. The implementation of the new process is expected to reduce the company's energy consumption by 20% and pollutant emissions by 30%.
In addition, we pay attention to the recycling of resources and the harmless disposal of waste. Through the establishment of a sound waste recycling and treatment system, the effective utilization and harmless disposal of waste residue, waste water and other wastes have been realized. This initiative not only helps to reduce environmental pollution, but also creates new economic benefits for the company.
Research and judgment on the supply and consumption of blister copper
The role of blister copper in refining
Due to the current shortage of domestic copper raw material resources, imported Tc/Rc continues to decline, which brings certain troubles to the procurement of copper concentrate. At present, the copper concentrate in the market is in a tight state, and most smelters choose to reduce production to relieve the pressure on raw materials, and when the raw materials are in a tight state, blister copper has become a must to increase production capacity.
As the world's largest producer of refined copper, China's growth trend in production and self-sufficiency rate has an important impact on the global copper market. In recent years, smelters' profit margins have been squeezed as the market has fluctuated in TC/RC.
Copper is widely used in many sectors such as electrical, construction, transportation, etc., so the growth in global copper demand is an important driver for blister copper refineries. This is mainly due to China's abundant copper resources and continuously optimized smelting technology. With the enhancement of domestic smelting capacity, China's blister copper production is expected to continue to grow. However, the output of copper concentrate also directly affects the output of blister copper smelters, and blister copper also carries the role of a link between upstream and downstream quality inspection.
The difference between the processing cost of blister copper in the north and south of China
Southern region: Although the southern market is dominated by scrap blister copper, which is less affected by copper concentrate raw materials, the scrap copper raw materials fluctuate greatly. When copper prices are high, the release of scrap copper increases, which can lead to pressure on blister copper sales as scrap becomes a substitute, affecting blister copper demand. In this case, the processing fee of blister copper will rise to reflect the change in the supply and demand relationship in the market. Since blister copper in the southern region is mainly used for pure refining and the front-end refining is smaller than refining, and the amount used is large, the fluctuation of processing fees may be more obvious.
In the northern region, the use of blister copper is mainly concentrated in the cooling of the furnace body and the front-end roughing is smaller than the refining, and the quantity is relatively limited. In this case, the purchase price has a greater impact on the production cost, so enterprises in the northern region may pay more attention to the stability of the price when purchasing blister copper. While increasing production capacity, long-term costs can be reduced by cooling and improving the service life of the furnace, which is also the reason why the processing cost of blister copper in the northern region is relatively stable.
Challenges and opportunities for the blister copper industry
Resource scarcity and environmental protection are among the main challenges facing the blister copper industry
1. The shortage of copper concentrate and the rise in the cost of raw materials have led to an increase in the production cost of blister copper, which has further compressed the profit margin of the industry. The low coefficient of blister copper, gold and silver and the inversion of gold and silver in imported copper and gold mines have further exacerbated the economic pressure on the industry. The reduction of the clean ore market has also increased the difficulty of production, making the blister copper industry face greater production pressure.
2. In order to improve the environmental protection development plan, the blister copper industry needs to strengthen the protection and recycling of resources, promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and improve the efficiency of resource utilization.
The growth rate of global copper supply is limited
At present, there are many projects from Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and other countries in the global copper supply. However, the supply of copper mines still faces disruptions, such as the aging of Chilean mines, community disturbances in Peru and the increase in global mining political risks, which will all constrain mine production, coupled with technical and natural disaster problems, with an average annual disturbance rate of about 5%;
According to ICSG data, global copper mine production in January 2024 was 1.8225 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%. Among them, the global mine production capacity in January 2024 was 2.442 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%.
The growth rate of domestic copper concentrate production has slowed down
In recent years, domestic copper mine production has faced multiple factors such as production accidents, grade decline, output reduction, and environmental protection policies, and the domestic copper mine output in 2023 will be 1.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. At present, the increase of domestic copper concentrate is relatively limited, most of which is driven by expansion projects, and there are few super-large high-quality copper ore projects that can be developed and put into operation in China. The only visible ones are Chinalco's Hongnipo Copper Mine in Liangshan Prefecture and Zijin Mining's Juno Copper Mine in Tibet;
From January to February this year, the output of copper concentrate in mainland China was 259,700 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decline of 8.75%. Among them, the output in February was 119,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.75%.
Copper concentrate processing fees continued to fall
Since the second half of 2023, the blister copper market has begun to turn tight, and the domestic blister copper processing fee has fallen to a low level. In 2024, due to the limited supply of imported blister copper, and the planned expansion of new smelters at home and abroad to drive demand, the market is already expected to show a tight situation this year. Nowadays, in the case of the intensifying overall tension of the raw material port, the domestic supply of blister copper market in the second quarter is expected to have a downward trend, and the blister copper processing fee is also difficult to rebound; the domestic blister copper production is higher, and the southern blister copper processing fee has continued to grow this year, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in the past six years, from 800 yuan/ton in January to 900 yuan/ton.
Opportunities for technological innovation and industrial upgrading
1. At present, there is a shortage of raw materials, and the cost of imported copper concentrate for refined copper is high, resulting in losses. Many smelters choose blister copper and miscellaneous copper scrap to ensure their annual tasks. The blister copper processing fee continues to fall. At the same time, the domestic blister copper contains high precious metals, and some benefits are produced after roughing.
2. Technological innovation and industrial upgrading have brought new opportunities for the blister copper industry. By increasing R&D investment, introducing advanced technology and equipment, and strengthening cooperation with universities and scientific research institutions, the blister copper industry can continuously improve its technical level and competitiveness.
The global refined copper market is growing slowly
According to data from the International Copper Research Group (ICSG), the global refined copper output in January 2024 was 2.3737 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.73%, the consumption was 2.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.37%, and the refined copper market was oversupplied by 84,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 27,000 tons in December last year.
Domestic electrolytic copper production is slowly rising
The mainland accounts for only 4% of the world's copper reserves, but the world's largest refined copper production. In the past decade, the output of refined copper in mainland China has increased year by year, and the self-sufficiency rate has been increasing. In 2023, the output of refined copper will be 11.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.28%.
The increase in global refined copper production capacity has indeed contributed to the growth of demand for blister copper and miscellaneous copper scrap, a trend influenced by a number of factors, including the development of mineral resources, the use of renewable resources, the demand in the Chinese market, and changes in capacity growth. With the growing global demand for copper products, blister copper and scrap copper will further enhance their market position and value as important raw materials.
Summary of key points
1. In 2024, the global copper concentrate trade market will turn from surplus to shortage. Aggressive smelting capacity in China and India, as well as new integrated smelters in the DRC and Indonesia, have led to a shortage of copper concentrate in the trading market, with blister copper being one of the feedstocks to fill the gap, given the huge gap between smelters and refining supply.
2. Blister copper and copper scrap are important lubricants for market balance, but it depends on the recovery efficiency, for Chinese smelters, increasing the recovery efficiency of domestic blister copper resources will be an alternative to fill the supply gap of imported copper concentrate.