As India's tilt toward the West in the process of world counter-hegemony and multipolarization becomes more and more obvious, the risk of future armed conflict between China and India is increasing.
[Old photos of tank confrontation on the Sino-Indian border]
Some military experts have also begun to make predictions about the scale and shape of the Sino-Indian conflict, and given the huge military gap between China and India, the Indian army is likely to become a backdrop for the PLA in the event of a conflict.
The Sino-Indian conflict is not large-scale
China is the largest country in Asia, and India is also known as the largest country in South Asia, so why is it said that the conflict between these two countries is not large-scale?
This is because India's military power projection capability is far inferior to that of China.
【Indian Mountain Troops】
The war is likely to end before the scale escalates, and India and China are not rivals of the same magnitude.
Once a Sino-Indian conflict breaks out, the main battlefields of the two sides are the ground and the air, and because the battlefield is located on a plateau and mountainous area, there are not many combat forces that can be deployed at the same time, which limits the scale of the conflict to a certain extent.
China has been improving the PLA's highland combat capabilities for decades, including equipping it with advanced equipment for highland and mountain operations, and strengthening its troop mobility and delivery capabilities.
[The People's Liberation Army's plateau actual combat training exposed by China's military network]
India's construction and investment in this area is almost zero.
For example, the Type 15 light tank installed in our army is a typical plateau and mountain combat equipment, which is light in weight and has high horsepower, and there is almost no attenuation in power in a plateau environment.
Whether the Indian army is a T-72B or a T-90S, it is difficult to say whether it can be launched on the plateau, and once the two sides meet, it will be a one-sided massacre of Type 15 light tanks against Indian tanks.
【15 Light Tan】
Also considering high-altitude operations are the PLA's Z-20 and WZ-21, both of which require the ability to fly and combat on the plateau.
However, the Indian army does not have such equipment, and the PLA's close-range support capability on the battlefield will far exceed that of India, and it will directly grasp the initiative and final victory in ground combat.
The rout of the Indian army will be very rapid, and the results of the PLA will be even greater.
Another important factor in the victory of the ground battle is the seizure of air supremacy, and the Chinese Air Force also has an extremely obvious asymmetric technical and personnel advantage.
[Indian media exposed that the Sino-Indian border airport has deployed J-20]
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed advanced fighters such as the J-20 and J-16 at China-India border airfields, which have a technological advantage over the Indian Air Force for half to a generation, and the Chinese pilots are also more sophisticated.
The average annual training flight time of the front-line units of the Indian Air Force is only 120 hours, but the average annual training flight time of the Chinese Air Force is about 200 to 220 hours, and only the US Air Force has reached this level, and India is far behind.
Under such circumstances, it is very difficult for the scale of the Sino-Indian conflict to really escalate, and China has the ability to completely control the scale and direction of the war.
【Indian Army】
The Sino-Indian conflict could redefine modern warfare
India's chances of victory in the Sino-Indian conflict are almost entirely pinned on the Indian Air Force, and they themselves know that the Army is certainly no match for the PLA.
In order to gain air superiority, India has also spent a huge amount of money to purchase Rafale F3.R fighters from France, with a unit price of as high as $300 million, and India hopes that this fourth-generation and a half-generation fighter can rely on advanced air-to-air missiles to counter the PLA's fifth-generation and fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters to a certain extent.
【Indian Air Force】
But such an idea is obviously futile, and whether the fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters can threaten the fifth-generation aircraft, with the support of a reasonable and reliable air system, can actually be done.
However, the problem is that for so many years of development and construction, the Indian Air Force has not established even a relatively basic air combat system, and its operations completely rely on the performance of fighter airframes and missiles.
The Rafale F3.R is considered a very advanced model among the four and a half generations of fighters, and the version ordered by India has a very high configuration, and its combat effectiveness is definitely not weak.
【Indian Air Force】
However, the problem is that modern air warfare has entered an era of systematization, and the Chinese Air Force is currently the most systematic air force in the world, and India is completely unable to compete with it.
Once the Indian Rafale rises into the air, it will be immediately captured by the Air Police 500 of the Chinese Air Force, and then the Chinese Air Force has many options, and the Air Police 500 can guide fifth-generation aircraft such as the J-20 to lock on and attack the Rafale in a state of stealth and silence.
From the launch of the missile to the shooting down of the opponent, the J-20 can even do not reveal its position at all. In other words, the Indian fighter will be shot down without warning.
If the J-20 has other kick-in-the-door missions, the Air Police 500 can also provide situational awareness advantages for the fourth-generation fighters such as the J-16/J-10C, so that they can detect the enemy before they launch.
[Air Patrol 500]
The PL-15 in service with the Chinese Air Force is the world's best-performing active radar medium-range missile, and after our fighters launch missiles first, they can directly carry out evasive maneuvers to prevent Indian fighters from returning fire.
Indian fighters will be completely suppressed by PLA fighters in the first wave of BVR over-the-horizon stage engagements, and after solving the Rafale of the Indian Air Force, the rest of the Indian fighters will not be worried.
Whether it is the Su-30MKI or the MiG-29, the technological gap between them and China's fighters is too great, and there is no possibility of victory in the air.
[Su-30MKI of the Indian Army]
The artillery/missile positions deployed by the Indian army on the front line of the Sino-Indian conflict will become the priority targets of the Chinese Air Force to destroy, and in the face of the Indian army's field air defense system, J-16D and other electronic warfare opportunities modified by large flying platforms, they will continue to be suppressed until the ground munitions completely destroy them.
Ground units will quickly break through the Indian defense line with air strikes, and divide and encircle the Indian army on the front line, completely annihilating it, and the outcome of the war will completely depend on the strategic objectives of the PLA.
Whether to completely eliminate India's military power and ensure that it can no longer pose a threat to China, or whether it is a limited deterrent and force it to abandon the Western camp, China will gain the initiative to determine the outcome of the war.
Sources:
[1] India's shooting down of its own plane was a "big mistake" in the contest with Pakistan, and two officers were punished North Evening New Vision.North Evening New Vision.2019-10-05 [Cited 2020-11-26]
[2] Liu Jinzhen, Liang Shoude, Yang Huaisheng, eds., Dictionary of International Politics, Beijing: China Social Sciences Press, 1994, p.240.