See clearly the cognitive strategy from the U.S. side: Taiwan is wary of Aquilino's provocative remarks

The author: Cai Mingming, Adjunct Professor, Department of Finance, Tamkang University

Recently, Taiwanese media reported: John Aquilino, the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific, was concerned about Taiwan's lack of troops, mentioning that Israel mobilized 360,000 people in one day after the Hamas raid and called on Taiwan to follow suit. Aquilino, who is about to leave his term in May, stressed in an exclusive interview with the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a New York-based think tank, on April 17 that Taiwan should strengthen its defense capabilities. Such provocative rhetoric seems to have the intention of pushing the people of Taiwan into the pit of war.

The major issues involved in the interview by U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Aquilino have attracted widespread attention and criticism. He also made a highly controversial statement to the warning issued by Congress that the mainland could take action in the near future and bring Taiwan into reunification. Such rhetoric could easily spark tensions, especially in the context of tensions between China and the United States. Such remarks may not only have a far-reaching impact on the situation in the Taiwan Strait, but may also pose a serious threat to global security.

Aquilino's warning could be seen as a challenge to regional and global peace, as such rhetoric could anger Beijing, lead to further tensions, and possibly even lead to conflict. Such rhetoric could push the region to the brink of war, rather than seeking a peaceful solution. Such fiery rhetoric could incite extreme positions and exacerbate political and security instability in the region.

Irresponsible incitement

Aquilino's remarks could be seen as extremely irresponsible and inciting. His warnings do not seem to take into account the serious consequences they could have for regional and global security. Such rhetoric could not only inflame tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but also push the region to the brink of conflict rather than seek a peaceful solution.

Since the Taiwan Strait issue has always been an extremely sensitive region, the words and actions of either side may trigger the risk of war. Aquilino's warning could exacerbate tensions in U.S.-China relations, especially with the many disputes and conflicts between the two countries at the moment. Such incitement could pose a serious threat to regional peace and stability and adversely affect global security.

Purposeful bluffing

Aquilino's remarks showed a tendency toward bravado, and he appeared to be deliberately exaggerating Chinese mainland's military developments in order to create panic and pressure. This may be done for political or military purposes, such as to demonstrate U.S. military power or to obtain a larger military budget. By exaggerating Chinese mainland's military threat, he may be trying to create a sense of concern and vigilance about Chinese mainland at home and abroad, thereby providing more legitimacy and support for U.S. military presence and operations in the region.

Sure enough, after he made the above statement, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental bill by an overwhelming vote of 385 to 34 on April 20, allocating $8.12 billion for military aid to Taiwan and strengthening the United States to maintain regional peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. The bill will provide $2 billion in "foreign military financing" (FMF) funding for countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including Taiwan, and $1.9 billion for the United States and countries invited by the United States to provide military assistance to Taiwan, including for the U.S. Department of Defense to replenish Taiwan's armaments, support for Taiwan's military services, education and training, etc.

False narratives and rumors

Aquilino's remarks also included warnings that the mainland could take action around 2027, as well as his reference to China's nuclear weapons, which could be considered irresponsible based on falsehoods.

First, his warnings lack hard evidence and concrete intelligence support. Predicting the future course of international relations is a challenging task, and he has not provided any specific intelligence or analysis to back up his claims. Such unfounded warnings could trigger panic and unnecessary tension and have a negative impact on regional stability.

Second, he referred to Chinese mainland's nuclear weapons data, which may be based on fabrications. This data is often classified and cannot be easily accessed by him. Even if he had such intelligence, the public disclosure of such data could be a serious threat to US national security. Therefore, he may be misleading and exaggerating facts in order to create panic and pressure on Chinese mainland, which is irresponsible and may have a negative impact on international relations.

Creating divisions has exacerbated regional tensions

Aquilino's remarks could further escalate tensions in U.S.-China relations, as he warned Congress that the mainland could take action in the near future and bring Taiwan into reunification. Such rhetoric could be interpreted as a provocation against Chinese mainland, which in turn would intensify the confrontation between the two countries. In addition, such rhetoric could also be seen as a challenge to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, further exacerbating tensions between China and the United States.

This increase in tension could have a negative impact on regional and global security. First, it could lead to an escalation of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which in turn could lead to broader regional conflicts. Once a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, it will pose a great threat to regional peace and stability and may affect the global economy. In addition, a further deterioration in U.S.-China relations could also have a negative impact on global governance, as both countries play an important role in global affairs.

epilogue

In an environment of global division and rising geopolitical risks, in addition to strengthening public education, the Taiwan authorities must still pay attention to the real motives of the major powers that ostensibly provide military aid to Taiwan but continue to carry out narrative rumors and cognitive strategies against the Taiwanese people. Never be fooled by such irresponsible and selfish behavior.

Regarding the speculation about whether Aquilino intends to obtain more military budgets, the fact that the House of Representatives passed the "Indo-Pacific Security Supplement Act" on the 20th can obtain military aid to Taiwan and strengthen the United States in maintaining regional peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region with $8.12 billion has been questioned and associated.

At this time, what the Taiwan authorities need is not to be pushed into the fire pit of war, but to be more rational, calm, and restrained, and they must not be deceived by narratives and rumors with ulterior motives from the outside world. Only through active foreign affairs, dialogue, and cooperation can we achieve the goal of long-term peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and ensure the well-being and security of the Taiwan people.