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First, the price trend
Recently, the domestic PA6 market has continued to fall, and most spot prices have been lowered. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of April 23, the domestic PA6 mixed benchmark price was 14,712.50 yuan/ton, and the price level fell 0.42% from the beginning of the month.
2. Cause analysis
Raw materials:
As can be seen from the chart above, the caprolactam market price has weakened recently. The price trend of raw material pure benzene fluctuates, and the cost side supports generally. On the supply side, some maintenance enterprises have returned to work in the early stage, resulting in an increase in the current start of enterprises, and the supply pressure has increased. The caprolactam market is well supplied, the downstream demand is limited, and the market trading is weak. Caprolactam weakened support for PA6 cost.
On the supply side, the load of PA6 production enterprises has been fine-tuned at a high level recently, with an average operating rate of about 82%, and the output level is flat compared with the previous period. The end of the month is approaching, the market is abundant, and the overall support of the supplier for PA6 spot is average.
Demand: In the downstream side, the recent start-up situation of the main downstream industries has remained stable. In terms of spinning, the operating rate is about 85% sideways, and the load in weaving is stable at 72%. Although the overall situation is flat compared with the previous period, the holiday is approaching, and some stocking demand is released. However, due to the gradual decline in PA6 prices, downstream companies have a wait-and-see mentality. The on-exchange trading has rebounded in the midst of caution, and the support for the demand side of PA6 is acceptable.
3. Forecast for the future
The PA6 market has weakened recently. Caprolactam prices weakened, weakening support for the cost side of PA6. The load of domestic polymerization plants is large and stable, terminal enterprises just need to stock up, and part of the May Day warehouse demand is gradually released. On the whole, the current long and short entanglement in the field, it is expected that the PA6 market may be sorted out in the short term.