Last night, I stumbled across a news report that the stock market of a certain country had plummeted by 99.95%.
I was stunned at the time, the delisting of individual stocks or the thunderstorm of Hong Kong stocks, plummeting by 90%, although it is rare but not nothing. But how is it possible for a country's big market to plummet by more than 90% in one day?
In addition, today I will talk to you about the latest trends of Bao Wuke, there are quite a lot of highlights......
1. It plummeted by 99.95% and cleared 0 in one day
It's not fake news.
This stock market, which returns to 0 a day, is the Zimbabwean stock market.
According to the data, Zimbabwe's stock market index collapsed from 915,936.81 points to 100.23 points in just one day, a one-day decline of 99.99%.
The year-to-date decline has also reached 99.95%.
Image source: Screenshot of a netizen's post
As we all know, Zimbabwe is famous for currency depreciation and inflation, which has its own peculiarities.
But even if the currency depreciation is extremely severe and inflation is extremely severe, plummeting by nearly 100% in one day, it is still very shocking.
The broad base of the market is also a symbol of a country's wealth! But it fell so hard, clearing 0 in a day, which made people witness the bloody cruelty of financial history again.
This has once again refreshed the lower limit of our cognition.
Again, it's because there was another refresh in financial history a few years ago.
At that time, international crude oil futures crashed into negative numbers overnight, and WTI crude oil was as low as -$40 per barrel, which was the first time in history that it closed in negative territory. To this day, it still makes people feel palpitations.
Source: iFind, as of April 20, 2020
To be honest, the longer you have been exposed to investing, the more lessons you have experienced, and the less courage you have.
Just like I write an analysis with you, text is the fastest way to reach out, but the slowest to get results. Only one's own experience is the most profound, but it is also the most painful way to pay.
Don't bet on a single asset, do a good job of diversification and asset allocation, and the long-term flow is the king.
Second, Bao has no latest trends
Let's talk about the dividend fund, as of today's close, the dividend fund has fallen for 3 consecutive days, of which 2 big black candles fell on the head.
I also analyzed the dividend fund yesterday in this article "I just bought it, you collapsed", and after writing it, I couldn't help but want to follow up on Bao Wuke, who focuses on deep value style and has a similar net value trend to dividend funds, how to analyze and deal with it.
Based on the latest quarterly report of the fund, I will summarize all the holdings of the fund managed by Bao Wuwu as follows.
It can be seen that Bao Ke has a heavy position in the non-ferrous metal industry and the public utilities industry, of which 4 are non-ferrous metal industries and 2 are public utilities industries. There are 4 left, followed by petroleum and petrochemical, basic chemicals, communications, and steel.
Data source: Fund 1 quarterly report, the change in the past three months as of April 23, 2024
In the first quarterly report, Bao Wuke also wrote some of the latest discussions on his investment trends.
Let's take a look at the parts that are highly correlated with fund holdings:
In the first quarterly report, Bao Wuke clearly wrote, "Some of the stocks held in the stock have shown signs of overvaluation due to rising prices and fundamental changes, and have chosen to reduce their holdings of these stocks when the price is higher, and at the same time increase their investment in other stocks." ”
Combined with the specific operation trends, Bao Wuke mainly reduced the position of some stocks that rose sharply, such as Zijin Mining and CNOOC.
The main reason is that they are still optimistic about these companies and think that they can still rise! Therefore, the reduction of positions is only about 10%, and there is no large-scale reduction of positions and take profits.
At the same time, Bao Keke has increased his holdings and bought new companies in the non-ferrous metals industry, such as Shenhuo and CMOC.
The overall position structure is still highly focused on non-ferrous metals, power, petroleum and other resources and energy fields.
Bao Wuke also mentioned in a quarterly report, "The demand for resource goods, especially energy, continues to grow. In the context of high product prices, capital investment in crude oil, coal and other industries is still at a low level. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand may further intensify. Current valuations are also within reasonable ranges. ”
3. The other side of Bao Wuwu: pessimism
Let's take a look at Bao Wuke's view of the current economic situation.
This part is relatively pessimistic and negative.
But I think this part is actually a stroke of genius that breaks through the current economic pain points.
"The economy has shown a certain degree of weakness, especially in the investment sector, and the downside has even exceeded previous expectations," Bao wrote at the beginning of the fund's investment strategy and operational analysis. ”
"Taking the cement industry, which is a barometer of construction activity, as an example, cement sales in the first quarter showed significant negative growth, which is largely caused by the dual drag of the real estate market and infrastructure. ”
Image source: Invesco Great Wall Energy Infrastructure Hybrid Q1 2024 report
We do this in two ways:
(1) In the real estate sector, due to the continuous decline in new home sales, as well as the thunderstorm and debt crisis of some leading real estate companies, the construction volume has been shrinking year by year.
(2) In terms of infrastructure, last year's Circular No. 47 significantly affected 12 provinces with high debt levels, and most infrastructure projects in these areas were suspended, further exacerbating the contraction of infrastructure investment.
Real estate and infrastructure, especially the former, can leverage huge levers for economic growth. Now, the two important areas of real estate and infrastructure are both shrinking, and there are still old United States staring at us overseas. The economic pressure can be imagined......
But that's not the end, it may just be the beginning.
"Judging from the stage of development of this process, the current economic restructuring is still in the initial stage of adjustment, and it is expected that this process will continue for several years. ”
Only by knowing the real situation can we face it in a targeted manner. If you don't even dare to face the problem, how can you deal with it and solve it......
Today, Aberdeen is beautiful again, and Hang Seng Technology also rose 3.5%.
I fully screened the funds in the Hong Kong market and found 13 high-quality funds. Broad-based, Hang Seng Technology, Medicine, Consumption, and Dividends are among the five categories, and private messages have obtained the list of Hong Kong stock funds.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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