India has just started a new round of general elections, and the 73-year-old Modi is running for re-election, and more than 968 million voters will vote in six weeks. This election has attracted the attention of the world, not only because it is the largest election in the world so far, but more importantly, in the ten years since Modi took office, India has become the world's most populous country and the fifth largest economy, and has become the target of strategic deployment and corporate investment by Western countries. Whether Modi can win a third five-year term is related to India's future direction, and will also affect the geopolitical pattern of the Indo-Pacific and the world.
On April 19, the 44-day 2024 Indian general election kicked off. According to a number of recent polls, Modi's approval rating remains above 70%. This year's general election in India was divided into seven phases and lasted until June 1, with the final results being announced on June 4. 968 million eligible voters will vote, more than voters in the United States, Brazil, Russia, Japan, the United Kingdom and France combined.
Lou Chunhao, Executive Director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
"The scale, the time, the expense, the number of political parties are just a few of the characteristics of the Indian general election. India claims to be the world's largest democracy, so its elections have captured the world's attention. ”
The election, which is expected to cost more than $14 billion, exceeds the cost of the 2020 U.S. election. The Election Commission of India installed 5.5 million electronic voting machines and deployed 15 million staff at more than 1 million polling sites to complete the massive election. Even voters living in remote areas can participate in the polls. In inaccessible places, horses and elephants carry voting machines, and voters reach polling stations by boat.
In 2023, India will overtake China to become the world's most populous country. The world's fifth-largest economy, under Modi's leadership, has made tremendous progress. In 2023, the economic growth rate will reach 7.7%, far exceeding market expectations. GDP growth is also expected to reach 6% this year, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
In this election campaign, Modi mentioned a number of things related to India's foreign policy and national defense and security. Analysts said: This involves China both openly and covertly.
Modi's visit to China in 2015, the year after his election as India's prime minister, and his visit to the Terracotta Warriors and Horses of the Mausoleum of Qin Shi Huang showed that he attaches great importance to China-India relations. However, after the Doklam standoff on the border between China and India in 2017, bilateral relations quickly entered a low point. In 2018, after the border dispute gradually cooled, Modi traveled to Wuhan for an informal meeting with the Chinese president, which warmed Sino-Indian relations. But then the resurgence of border disputes and India's protectionist measures against Chinese investment during the pandemic have brought Sino-Indian relations to a new low.
Hu Shisheng, Director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
"India and China are already in a competitive relationship, and if the core border issue is not resolved, China-India relations will not be able to develop, which is using the border issue to hijack China-India relations. ”
In this election campaign, Modi mentioned a number of things related to India's foreign policy and national defense and security. Analysts said: This involves China both openly and covertly. In an interview with Newsweek on April 10, Modi said India and China should "urgently resolve" the protracted border issue between the two countries. The outside world also has different interpretations of this.
Hu Shisheng, Director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
"His principled and fundamental position has not changed. Based on the current framework, at least the entire Indian elite and policymakers believe that maintaining a moderate level of tension with China is conducive to accelerating the rise of great powers. Because in this way, the United States and the West will invest resources in India on a large scale to pull India into China. If the United States and the West do not invest more in India's strategy, India will have good relations with China. It's a political bargaining chip. ”
Modi strengthens ties with neighboring countries and deepens cooperation with global powers. India hosted the G20 summit in 2023, and India's image as a rising power has also led Western media to compare it to China, describing the G20 summit as a stage for a "dragon-elephant battle".
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"India has always been wary of China, which it considers to be a potential security threat, so it will continue to engage in political exclusion and economic repression, including through military exercises. ”
According to outside analysis, the "rising India" has led the United States to regard it as a counterweight to China.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"Including China-India relations in recent years, although stable, but in a downward state. In the past two years, the United States has not participated in Russia's sanctions against India, but has further strengthened its cooperation with Russia in the field of energy, and has not taken countermeasures at the national level. ”
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On the eve of the election, India's political parties have long been at odds. And Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its coalition are also trying to pave the way for a general election. Since February 13 this year, thousands of farmers from the northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan have staged mass protests over the government's failure to meet its legislative and reform commitments to guarantee "minimum support prices" for crop purchases, sparking bloodshed in police-civilian standoffs.
On March 31, the Indian opposition and tens of thousands of its supporters rallied in New Delhi to protest the Modi government and call for free and fair elections.
Partisanship is in full swing, and campaign scandals have come to light. A few days before the election, the Election Commission of India has seized more than 4 billion yuan worth of bribes, which is the highest amount of bribes seized in India's 75-year history. The Election Commission of India said the purpose of the detention was to curb electoral fraud and ensure fair elections.
Hu Shisheng, Director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
"This kind of direct cash for goods is very common in South Asian election activities in the past, for example, if the head of a village is well organized, and the candidate does win because of their vote, then he will build a canal for the village, install running water, and so on. Some are collective welfare, while others are directed to individual welfare. With so many local parties in India, the competition to stand out is fierce and cutthroat. ”
On April 17, the British newspaper The Guardian published an editorial saying that regardless of the outcome of the general election, the loser is Indian democracy. News of the arrest of several opposition leaders and the freezing of bank accounts has called into question India's democratic reputation.
And Modi's campaign platform for this election has also become the focus of discussion in the outside world.
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Modi's private life is rarely made public, and it is said that a strong public relations team keeps him private. Born into a family of tea merchants in a small town in Gujarat state, the 73-year-old bachelor has no children and has opted for a simple, ascetic lifestyle. Over the years, powerful public opinion propaganda has made him a "god" in the hearts of some people, while others regard him as their "family".
In the 2019 general election, the BJP won 303 seats in the Lok Sabha and its ruling coalition won 352 seats. In this election, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the main challenger to the Indian National Congress.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"Opposition parties, including the Congress Party and the 'Inclusive Alliance for India's National Development' (INDIA) coalition, which is made up of the Congress Party, are difficult to compete with the BJP's 'National League for Democracy'. The reason for this is that the coalition of these 26 parties is constantly fighting among themselves, and they cannot be expected to form a real united front at the national level. ”
In an election that has been described as "almost unsuspenseful" in the outcome, Modi's ability to win 400 seats has become the focus of attention. Analysts say it will depend on the southern region of India. The southern region accounts for more than 30% of the country's GDP, but in the last Indian general election in 2019, the BJP won only 30 of the 131 seats in the southern region.
Lou Chunhao, Executive Director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
"The BJP's base this time should still be on the northern side. Because the local parties in the southern states have always been stronger, it is difficult for the BJP to squeeze in, the language is inconsistent, and they do not endorse Hindu nationalism, they are more concerned with economic development. It will be interesting to see whether the BJP will be able to gain an advantage over several of its relatively weak states in the south this time, in addition to consolidating its base. ”
Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have never stopped campaigning for themselves. On April 14, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) released its platform for the 2024 general election, titled "Modi's Pledge". The declaration reaffirmed India's intention to become the world's third-largest economy and set the goal of a "global manufacturing hub", emphasizing welfare programs that benefit hundreds of millions of Indians.
Modi reiterated the slogan of "developed India", saying that by 2047, the 100th anniversary of independence, India will become a developed country.
Hu Shisheng, Director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
"Modi draws a huge pie with a grand narrative. For example, India will become a developed country in 2047, which has become his mantra. Originally, it was a future tense, but it seems to be a present tense as it is spoken. ”
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Speaking at a campaign rally in recent days, Modi called Muslims "infiltrators" and was accused by opposition parties of making hate speech. The repeatedly effective "religious card" has become an important "magic weapon" for Modi's campaign.
Even before the election, Modi's high-profile appearance at the unveiling of the Rama temple in the northern Indian city of Ayodhya on January 22 had already caused controversy. The controversial nature of this Hindu temple lies in the fact that it was built on the ruins of a mosque.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"The Rama temple issue is arguably one of the focal points between Hindus and Muslims, and it has been an important factor in the rise of the BJP in recent decades. Legend has it that Rama was born in Ayodhya, when the Mughal dynasty of Islam overthrew the Hindu temple and built the Barburi Mosque. After the establishment of the state, the Hindu majority prevailed, and the BJP supported the demolition of the former Barburi Mosque and the establishment of a Rama temple. In 1992, there was a serious violent clash between the two sides that killed thousands of people and shocked the whole of India. ”
More than 7,000 politicians, religious figures and celebrities were invited to attend the unveiling ceremony of the Rama Temple, and a grand celebration was held across India. However, several leaders of the opposition coalition announced their refusal to attend the unveiling of the Rama temple, calling it a "political project" by Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to canvass for votes before the elections began.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"With 80 percent of India's voters Hindu and overwhelmingly Hindu, playing the 'religious card' can attract the majority of voters and ensure the long-term continuation of the regime. ”
Although Modi and his party's election platform paints a grand picture, doubts continue to grow.
Congressman Rahul Gandhi, a prominent member of the Congress party, blamed the "Modi's assurance" platform and remained silent on the two key issues of "rising prices" and "unemployment". The opposition also pointed out that in 2018, the BJP made 600 promises in Karnataka, but failed to fulfill even 60 of them.
Lou Chunhao, Executive Director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
"The unemployment rate among young people is particularly high, and the unemployment rate of Indian college students graduating in 2023 is about 40%, and they are unemployed upon graduation. Some foreign media have suggested that everyone thinks that India's rise itself empowers India. But all that aside, India's rise has been uneven. India still has a long way to go in terms of domestic governance, in solving the employment of ordinary people, in solving the gap between the rich and the poor, and so on. ”
Although Modi is full of confidence in his re-election, there have been all kinds of unrest at the beginning of the election, which also makes the final result implied variables. In order to stabilize his approval ratings, Modi has implemented many policy measures that have been seen by some commentators as moving further and further away from Western democratic standards. India and Modi, on the other hand, have higher and more ambitious goals for global economic ranking and political discourse. It is necessary to rely on the West to gain more chips in the great power game, but not to go too far. How to walk the wire rope well is a test of the art of balance everywhere.
Producer: Song Yang
Choreographer: Hu Yuanrong
Editor: Wang Jinjie