Messi's ninth Ballon d'Or is on the way?

大叔聊球

2024-04-24 21:43Published in Jiangsu

A few days ago, the latest odds for the 2024 Golden Globe Awards were updated. Bellingham, who scored the winner in the national derby, has dropped in odds, while Haaland, who has had a mediocre European and league performance recently, has risen in odds. According to the odds analysis, Bellingham is the most popular winner, while Mbappe, Harry Kane, Foden are second to fourth, and Haaland is fifth. It is worth mentioning that Messi is still firmly in the top 10 and is in seventh place.

Messi has been continuously selected into the Golden Ball Award hot list, with both praise and disapproval. This aspect shows his far-reaching influence and the media's continued preference for him. On the other hand, it also makes people question that he is in a non-five major league, and the popularity factor of the finalists is higher than the gold content. So, if Messi wants to win his ninth Ballon d'Or in 2024, is it possible?

First of all, let's take a look at the selection criteria for the Golden Globe Awards. Created and awarded by France Football magazine, the Ballon d'Or is a prestigious individual honour in the world of football, recognising the best performers of each season. The award was created in 1956 and since 2007 it has been extended to all football players around the world. It has now become a traditional event in the world of football.

The selection process for the Golden Globes is rigorous. Every August, France Football magazine announces a shortlist of 30 candidates. The list was nominated by the magazine's editorial team, Golden Globe Ambassadors, and the most insightful voters from the previous year.

The judging time has been adjusted to the current season's performance rather than the annual performance. Therefore, the 2024 Ballon d'Or should be judged to include all competitions this season, as well as the European Championship and Copa America competitions that will be played in the summer. The selection criteria will be announced in advance. The selection criteria officially released for the 2023 Golden Globe Awards are: outstanding individual performances and impressive scenes; Key core and honors of the team; Fair play on the field and elegant manners.

The official voting for the Ballon d'Or is conducted by journalists from the top 100 countries or regions in the FIFA world rankings, who need to select five people from a shortlist of 30 people and rank them, giving different points according to the ranking order. The player with the highest total score will receive the Ballon d'Or.

In addition, at the annual Ballon d'Or ceremony, awards such as the Women's Ballon d'Or, the Kopa Award, and the Yashin Award are presented to recognize players and teams that have made outstanding contributions in different fields.

Now let's take a look, how far is Messi from his ninth Ballon d'Or?

So far, Messi has won the most Ballon d'Or with 8 awards, demonstrating his outstanding status in football. After winning the award for the eighth time, he himself said that he would not seek another award.

But in extreme cases, Messi could still win the Ballon d'Or.

First of all, let's say Messi wins the Copa America. This is a year for football, and the winner of the tournament often has a decisive impact on the attribution of the Ballon d'Or. Looking back at history, we can see that Messi won the Ballon d'Or in 2021 with his victory in the Copa America and again in 2023 with his victory in the World Cup in Qatar. If he can successfully defend the Copa America this summer, he will add a big chip to the Ballon d'Or.

Secondly, suppose Messi wins the MLS championship. At present, Messi's US Champions League Cup is out of the competition, and he will have enough energy to treat the league. Inter Miami is currently at the top of the Eastern Conference. Once Messi leads Miami to the championship, the influence will be overwhelming. Because although the MLS is not very valuable, leading the bottom team last season to the top, individual heroism will be greatly exaggerated in the United States and given a different meaning. Influence will be a case that Golden Globe voters value.

Finally, a little luck is needed. That luck is the opponent's aberration. Among the players currently ranked in front of Messi, Bellingham and Mbappe are basically worry-free in the league championship, and the key is whether they can win the European Cup. Kane, Foden and Rodri also need the blessing of the European Cup winners. Bellingham has the best chance of winning the Ballon d'Or if England win the title, while Mbappe has a better chance of winning the Ballon d'Or if the Frenchman wins the European Championships. As for Haaland, because he missed the European Cup, winning the league title and the Champions League is an indispensable weight for him to win the Ballon d'Or.

To sum up, in the extreme case, if England, France, and Spain all lose in the European Championship, and Messi wins the Copa America and the MLS, Messi will win the Ballon d'Or again.

Of course, as mentioned above, Messi has expressed the idea of quitting the rivers and lakes and living a happy life last year. He is willing to let the younger generation of young talents stand out and take over the mantle, and no longer wait for the next Ballon d'Or selection cycle. Therefore, this article is only for analytical entertainment.

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