Today, the total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges shrank to below 800 billion, reaching the lowest trading volume recorded since April. Prior to this, there was a similar shrinkage rise on April 9, which was also characterized by a general rise in theme stocks, but the next day there was a significant market correction. In the current situation of relatively weak market performance and lack of clarity in the trend, retail investors often speculate on future market dynamics based on historical trends. So, in the face of the current shrinkage rise, everyone can't help but ask: Will there really be a reappearance of the market similar to the big drop after April 9 tomorrow? Without further ado, let's go straight to the point:
1. The core issues of market concern have not been resolved
The recent weakness in the market is mainly due to two aspects: on the one hand, the capital situation at the end of the month is usually tight, and on the other hand, the successive disclosure of the first quarter results of listed companies has brought great uncertainty to the market. In this case, once investors misjudge the performance of individual stocks, they will quickly face the risk of loss. For example, Tianqi Lithium recently released a pre-loss report of 3.6 billion to 4.3 billion yuan in the first quarter, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange immediately followed up and issued a letter of concern, and the market reacted quickly to this, and the stock price fell. A similar situation is also played out in large white horse blue chips such as Zhifei Biotech, which are not small and mid-cap stocks with a market capitalization, but leaders with a market value of tens of billions or even hundreds of billions.
As of the morning of April 24, only 664 listed companies have released their first-quarter earnings reports, and more than 4,000 companies are still to be disclosed. From the perspective of the main funds, even if they have a strong optimism about the long-term trend of the stock market, they may choose to wait for all the results to be disclosed before judging whether to increase their longs, at least they will not rush to force bullishness in the remaining trading days before the holiday. If the index does not show sufficient strength, the wait-and-see sentiment will prevail. In other words, even if there is a sharp correction in the market in the coming days, it is likely that these funds will not actively participate in the dip buying operation.
2. Whether the low-altitude economy of the main theme can be crossed.
In the current market, the low-altitude economic sector is widely concerned, and many people regard it as the main line of the market. However, through an in-depth review and analysis, it can be seen that the real market hotspot today is not the low-altitude economy, although its performance is eye-catching, there are only 14 related stocks with a daily limit, compared to the performance of the ST sector is stronger, with a total of 20 daily limit stocks. In a strong market environment, funds tend to concentrate in thematic investment areas such as the low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence, but if funds flow to the ST sector, this is more a reflection of the strengthening of market defensiveness, which is very different in nature, especially in the context of the current market volume contraction.
In addition, it remains to be seen whether the low-altitude economic sector can successfully pass through the current market cycle and become the main line leading the next wave of the market. Theoretically speaking, if the index can achieve a reversal at the current point, it is not impossible for the leading stocks in the low-altitude economic sector to double to 6-10 times if they can successfully cross the base. However, the leading position of the low-altitude economic sector has changed frequently, showing a trend of relay to maintain heat, and has not yet formed a stable high-benchmark leading stock, which is obviously different from the previous strength of the artificial intelligence sector. The artificial intelligence sector also failed to cross successfully in April, and the stronger the consensus expectations of the low-altitude economic sector, the closer it may be to face a sharp correction.
Combined with the current capital situation and the popularity of the theme, Fengyu believes that the market does not have the conditions to lead the index to achieve an upward breakthrough. If you forcibly rely on weighted index stocks, such as the financial sector, to pull the index to break through, it may lead to the rapid withdrawal of existing funds, which will make it difficult to maintain the general rise in the market, and there may even be a situation where the index is flat and individual stocks generally fall. On the other hand, the current main force of the market has not shown effective control ability, if the trading volume is not effectively coordinated to force a breakthrough of 3100 points, a large number of unhedging orders are likely to take the opportunity to sell, forming a strong resistance to the market. For tomorrow's market outlook, it is already a relatively ideal state to be able to maintain sideways shocks on the current basis and continue to digest the selling pressure. At the same time, it is also necessary to be vigilant against the possible downward market, once the market adjustment trend opens, the risk of avoidance should still be avoided!
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