The debate about the future has never stopped, and the battle for the next generation of photovoltaic technology is also in full swing.
However, at present, the "board" full of uncertainties seems to be becoming more and more clear, and n-type TOPCon cell technology is rapidly rushing to the "C" position due to its high efficiency and high cost performance.
Iterative acceleration
Some data show that for every 1% increase in the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells, the LCOE will drop by about 5%. The development process of photovoltaic is actually a history of technology iteration.
Back in 2015, PERC technology has become a new technology hotspot with higher efficiency, and its market share jumped to 91.2% in 2021, completing the iteration of traditional BSF technology.
However, as the efficiency of PERC cells approached the "ceiling", the first year of n-type technology followed, and traditional leaders such as Jinko, Trina, JA Solar, and Yiyi expanded to n-type in a big way, while also attracting a group of new entrants to quickly cut in.
As a result, n-type production capacity has also sprung up like mushrooms after a rain. According to CPIA data, n-type cells accounted for about 9.1% of the total in the second half of 2022, and this figure will rise to 26.5% in 2023, of which TOPCon cells will account for the absolute increase of n-type technology, accounting for 8.3% and 23% respectively. According to InfoLink, the nominal production capacity of n-type TOPCon has reached 560GW by the end of 2023, surpassing that of P-type capacity.
It is undeniable that cost performance is the first element in the battlefield of beach-grabbing technology. At the end of 2022, the price of n-type TOPCon182 double-glass modules was RMB 2.05/W, but due to supply expansion and technological progress, the latest quotation in April this year was as low as RMB 0.94/W, approaching that of double-glass P-type modules of the same size.
While the cost is decreasing, the efficient power generation of TOPCon has been confirmed one by one. The empirical results of the Daqing base released by at the end of March further confirmed the terminal power generation advantages of n-type TOPCon, and the empirical results found that the power generation of TOPCon in 2023 is 1.16% and 2.87% higher than that of IBC and PERC, respectively, which is consistent with the empirical results of last year.
On the other hand, the unexpected iteration of TOPCon also benefited from the rapid recognition of the end market. In 2022, n-type modules accounted for less than 5% of the total purchases, 45% of the nearly 300 GW in 2023, and 66% of the nearly 150 GW in the first four months of this year, of which TOPCon accounted for 64.8%.
It is foreseeable that with the successive release of new production capacity, the market share of n-type batteries will usher in a significant change in 2024. According to InfoLink, n-type technology will replace PERC cells as the new dominant player in the PV market this year with nearly 79% of the market share, with shipments estimated to reach 492 GW, of which TOPCon accounts for up to 70%.
N-type technology leader
Technological innovation is the foundation of the development of the photovoltaic industry, and it is also the winner or loser of the differentiated competition of major enterprises. Among the many breakouts, a new ability's record is obvious to all.
In the author's opinion, in addition to the forward-looking strategic layout, a new energy is more down-to-earth, always adhere to the continuous innovation of n-type battery technology, and overcome technical difficulties step by step.
At a time when the industry was almost blank, at the beginning of its establishment in 2018, a new energy firmly chose the n-type TOPCon battery technology route. In 2019, it took the lead in establishing the first production line based on LPCVD polysilicon process in China, and developed the 4.5-generation TOPCon technology in just 4 years. Such efficient R&D efficiency not only promotes the iterative upgrading of N products, but also promotes the high-quality development and transformation of the industry.
As a leader in n-type technology, a new energy has pushed n-type TOPCon technology to a new climax of development. At present, the efficiency of the latest TOPCon 4.0 plus cell mass production line has reached 26.55%, which is the third consecutive time to create a world efficiency record for large-area TOPCon cells (333.4cm²) in 8 months, following 26.33% and 26.36%. In addition, as the core technical index of solar cells, a new energy can increase the open-circuit voltage of large-area TOPCon cells from 701mV to 742mV.
"A new energy TOPCon 4.0 plus mainly improves efficiency through three core technologies: first, the passivation material innovation, the new material of the backside passivation layer improves the carrier selection ratio, the second is the use of a new structure of high spectral utilization, which improves the utilization rate of long wavelength and short wavelength in the solar spectrum of the battery by more than 15%, and the third is the laser high-flux carrier injection process, which enables the battery to reduce the contact resistance between the metal electrode and silicon under the coupling of light field, thermal field and electric field. Song Dengyuanbo, chief technology officer of a new energy, pointed out in a recent forum.
It is based on the continuous innovation and breakthrough of technology that a new energy will be pushed to a higher milestone step by step. In 2022, Yixin Energy, which has only been established for four years, broke into the top 10 list of global module shipments, and in 2023, Yixin Energy will continue to rank among the top 10 module shipments with nearly 20GW of shipments.
And the climb is still accelerating. As can be seen from the results of large-scale module centralized procurement announced this year, Yixin Energy has been shortlisted for the N-type module centralized procurement bid of many central state-owned enterprises such as China National Nuclear Corporation and China Power Construction. According to the insiders of Yiyi Xinneng, at present, Yiyi has built 30GW of cell and 30GW module production capacity, and expanded the proportion of n-type production capacity to 90%, which shows its confidence in n-type.
According to the public news in July last year, a new energy also forward-looking layout of TOPCon, TBC, CSPC, TSiP and SFOS and other five major technical routes;
Throughout the present, the iteration of P and N technologies has entered a critical node, the industry pattern is undergoing profound changes, veterans are setting sail again, upstarts are rising strongly, standing in a new round of racing track, and a young new energy is ready to sprint.