New energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products, last year, China's "new three" products exports exceeded the trillion yuan mark for the first time, an increase of nearly 30%. Many people in the international business community have praised China's steadfastness in promoting green transformation. However, some people in the United States have gone so far as to label China's new energy industry as "overcapacity", saying that "more export goods is overcapacity" and "China's production capacity greatly exceeds China's domestic demand and the global market's ability to bear it."
Such a statement is completely untenable.
Nicholas Rudy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, an American think tank, said bluntly: "This view seems to imply that no country should produce more than its domestic sales capacity." "This argument goes to extremes and will lead to no trade between countries, which will be an economic disaster for the world." ”
With the in-depth development of economic globalization, different countries have divided labor and cooperated, each giving full play to its comparative advantages, and then exchanging information through international trade, which has led to technological progress, efficiency improvement, and win-win cooperation. According to the logic of some people in the United States and other Western countries, if a country's production capacity exceeds its own demand, it is "overcapacity", then the United States exports a large number of chips, aircraft, soybeans and other commodities every year, and the United States is also a proper "overcapacity".
Equating "too many export commodities" with "overcapacity" is already "the donkey's lips are not the horse's mouth", and if you analyze it carefully, it is even more contrary to the facts and fabricated out of thin air.
Is there really a lot of new energy commodity exports in China?
In terms of growth rate, in the past two years, China's "new three" products have become popular all over the world and achieved rapid export growth. However, in terms of proportion, the proportion of China's new energy vehicle exports to production is much lower than that of countries such as Germany, Japan and South Korea. For example, Germany produced 4.1 million vehicles last year, of which 3.1 million were exported overseas, accounting for nearly 80% of exports. China's new energy vehicles produced 9.587 million units last year and exported 1.203 million units, accounting for only one-eighth of the total export share.
Bloomberg columnist David Ficklin pointed out that "the West is worried about the impact of China's new energy products on the world, but the share of related technology products in China's exports is still quite small." ”
Is China's green capacity really "excessive"?
Looking at the issue of production capacity, we must have a market vision.
Under the conditions of a market economy, the balance between supply and demand is relative, and the imbalance is universal. Moderate oversupply is conducive to promoting market competition, survival of the fittest, promoting technological innovation and cost reduction, and enabling consumers in various countries to obtain better products and services at a lower cost. In other words, fair competition is the original meaning of the market economy, and it is also an important driving force for the progress of human society, and it is the rule generally followed by enterprises from all countries in the "global village". BMW Group Chairman Zipzer is objective: "We don't feel threatened, and we shouldn't exaggerate our fear of foreign manufacturers" and "We actually see more opportunities than risks".
Price is an important "weather vane" for judging the relationship between supply and demand. If it is really "overcapacity" as some people in the United States say, the price of China's new energy products in the international market should continue to be low. In fact, China's EV exports have increased at the same time as prices, with the average price of China's leading EVs in Europe being about twice as high as in China. The increase in volume and price is obviously in short supply, so how can we talk about "surplus"?
Looking at the issue of production capacity, we must also have a global vision.
It is a matter of course that a country's industrial development should try its best to meet the needs of the people. China is building a new development paradigm and pursuing "domestic circulation as the mainstay, and domestic and international circulations promote each other". The huge potential of domestic demand provides a broad space for the development of Chinese enterprises. At present, there is still a lot of room for growth in China's third- and fourth-tier cities and rural markets. Some analysts predict that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will increase from 35.2% in 2023 to 60% in 2033. In other words, meeting the growing needs of more than 1.4 billion Chinese for a better life is inseparable from the development of the new energy industry, production capacity and technological level. No one is in a position to blame for this.
A country's industrial development should focus on the overall situation of the global industry. In response to climate change, more than 130 countries around the world have set carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, and the demand brought about by green development will continue to grow. According to the International Energy Agency, the global demand for new energy vehicles will reach 45 million in 2030, more than four times that of 2022, and the global demand for new photovoltaic capacity will reach 820 GW, about four times that of 2022. Far from being "in surplus" of new energy products in the global market, there is still a shortage of them! As an important producer of green products, there is no reason why China should not participate in it and actively participate in it.
In fact, in the field of new energy, Chinese companies are continuing to contribute to the world: in Hungary, BYD is starting to build a new energy vehicle production base in stages, which is expected to create thousands of local jobs, and in Thailand, Changan, SAIC, BYD and other companies are actively building factories, with a total planned investment of more than 10 billion yuan. Whether it is exporting products, meeting the needs of the global market, or building factories overseas, stimulating investment, driving employment and expanding industries, China's new energy enterprises have always pursued mutual benefit and win-win and common development. This has also won praise from many international people, the website of the American magazine "The Diplomat" noted that Southeast Asian countries are actively seeking cooperation with Chinese electric vehicle companies, "not only strengthening the inevitable transition from fossil fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, but also promoting economic growth through technological exchanges".
Since there is no reason, why do some people in relevant countries concoct the "overcapacity theory" of China's new energy industry in a convincing manner?
Behind such "conclusive words" lies the "evil intention" of trade protectionism. In the opinion of the French entrepreneur Bertrand, "the substantive issue of the argument is competitiveness, not capacity." Some Western countries are worried that China's rapid pace of development and the increasing competitiveness of Chinese enterprises will threaten their dominance in related fields. ”
Such a "overcapacity theory" in China's new energy industry comes from the long-term "double standard" of some people in relevant countries -
"I can use government resources to support the development of high-tech and emerging industries, you can't rely on industrial policies to cultivate industries. ”
"When it comes to tackling climate change, we believe that new energy capacity is still insufficient. When it comes to China's new energy industry, it blames 'overcapacity'."
"When I had a competitive advantage, I advocated for the free market. If not, bring up protectionism"......
Facts and truths will not change because some people label themselves with hegemonic thinking and claim that they have the "right to interpret". Begging the development of the global new energy industry with short-sighted trade protectionism will undoubtedly weaken the ability of countries to cope with climate change and promote green development, and will eventually "lift a stone and shoot yourself in the foot".
International trade is not a "zero-sum game" in which you lose or win, and no adverse current can stop the tide of economic globalization that is inclusive and inclusive. Only through open cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win results can the global market for green products become bigger and bigger, and the future of human society will become better.
Editor: Zheng Jianlong
Source: People's Daily client