Gold: Overnight gold first fell and then rose, partially recovering losses, but the probability is only the repair of the previous deviation rate, the trend adjustment will continue, the European Central Bank is about to cut interest rates, theoretically the dollar will benefit from this, and the strong dollar will put pressure on gold.
Although the ECB continued to hold its ground at this month's interest rate meeting, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that if there are no surprises, the ECB will cut interest rates at the June interest rate meeting. The euro is weighted by more than 50% in the dollar basket, which theoretically supports the strengthening of the dollar index.
The market's bets on the number of rate cuts by the Fed this year have been reduced from six at the beginning of the year to only one or two, and there are even pessimists who believe that there may not be any rate cuts this year, with the interest rate watch tool showing that the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 83.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is only 16.3%.
Technical: The gold daily candle closes with a small black candle with a long lower shadow, and the short-term resistance is strong. The 4-hour period closes the falling K-line combination, and the probability of a short-term rebound is very high, but it also faces the suppression of the long-term moving average above. In the short term, you can pay attention to the support of the $2,313 line below and the pressure on the $2,340 line above.
Gold price chart: Gold hourly chart
Crude oil: Overnight oil prices have achieved a small cycle of double bottoming from the technical form, and there are signs of stabilization in the short term, and even the possibility of daily adjustment in place is not ruled out. Signs of improvement on the demand side and US sanctions on Iran could be a boost to oil prices.
In the middle of this month, the latest monthly report of the Bundesbank showed that the German economy is likely to grow in the first quarter, thanks to the recovery of German manufacturing, export growth and the boost of the construction industry, which means that Europe's largest economy will avoid a prolonged recession, and the entire eurozone is likely to benefit.
Eurozone CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, down further from 2.6% in February, inflation continued to decline, the preliminary services PMI soared to 52.9 from 51.5 last month, and the preliminary composite PMI was 51.4, both hitting a new high in 11 months, while the improvement of the eurozone economy is conducive to boosting crude oil demand.
Technical: Crude oil daily line two consecutive positive, the adjustment of this cycle may end. The 1-hour cycle of the second bottom is successful, forming a double bottom breakout, and the probability of continuing to rise in the short term is very high. In the short term, focus on the support below the $82.50 line.
Crude Oil Price Chart: Crude Oil Hourly Chart
Important Notice: The above content and views are provided by the think tank of the third-party cooperation platform and are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.