Friends, pay attention! Today's market sends out two important signals, which have an important impact on the next market.
Facing a change in the short term, up or down?
The revival of big technology is a signal to stop falling?
Medical care has risen against the trend for two consecutive days and then fluctuated in a narrow range, what is the intention?
Perspective the stock market puzzle, insight into the trend of the industry, grasp the investment opportunities, be a person who understands the stock market, and make a clear investment!
Market trends and hot topics
First, the two major signals on the disk, the short-term face change?
The two most significant signals on today's market:
First, the Shanghai Composite Index has shrunk extremely. The amount of land is seen in the land price, and the extreme shrinkage in an uptrend or volatile market is usually a manifestation of the exhaustion of bears and the end of the adjustment. The Shanghai Composite Index has a 30-day volume today, although it cannot be directly determined that the adjustment is over, but this volume appears above the semi-annual line and the 60-day moving average, which is a positive signal. As long as the half-year line and the 60-day moving average are not broken, the medium-term market is expected to get better and better.
Second, big tech rebounded across the board. As the main line of popularity of the previous wave of rebound, the volume rose sharply after a month of adjustment, which is the performance of the initial return of the bulls to show their muscles, and it is a kind of trial behavior, which mostly occurs at the end of the adjustment. Note: To distinguish it from the inducing bullish rise in the main falling segment, the nature of the two is different, and the performance is also different.
These two signals have positive significance for the next market, which means that this wave of adjustment has come to an end, and the market in May is worth looking forward to.
Second, big technology is resurrected with full blood, and the signal to stop falling is a chance to get on the bus?
Big Tech has the possibility of stopping the decline:
First, the adjustment is relatively sufficient. After more than a month of adjustment, half of the room for the rise has been reversed, and the adjustment is basically in place in terms of time and space.
Second, the technical support rebound. Continuous shrinkage, coupled with the 20-minute divergence on the 20-minute bottom, there is a need for a rebound on the technical side.
Third, the rise is strong. Today's rise is full of strength, the plate linkage is very strong, and the entire technology track is rebounding, indicating that the main force in big technology has been dispatched.
3. Hong Kong stocks broke out, can the market continue?
Hong Kong stocks welcome the blockbuster positive, this week's trend is significantly stronger than A shares, Hang Seng Medical, Hang Seng Technology rose one after another, is it too late to get on the car now?
Since the high point of 2018, Hong Kong stocks have fallen to the 7th year, whether from the adjustment time, adjustment space, or from the perspective of valuation and situation, Hong Kong stocks are about to come to the time.
In the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates and start a new round of monetary easing, which is good for Hong Kong stocks that rely on international liquidity.
Last Friday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission sent a favorable gift package: the introduction of five preferential measures for Hong Kong is of great significance for improving the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks.
UBS, an internationally renowned investment bank, also added fuel to the fire: it upgraded Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stocks to overweight.
Under the multiple benefits, it ignited the enthusiasm of Hong Kong stocks to be long. Hong Kong stocks, which have been weak for a long time, are expected to come out of a wave of rebound under the positive incentive. Although the medium-term is optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, the short-term rhythm should still be paid attention to.
The Hang Seng Index just rushed to the strong pressure level at the white line again, and the previous three times failed to break through, and it is difficult to say whether it can successfully break through this time, but the probability is greater than the previous ones. Repeated upward probing to release selling pressure, coupled with good blessings, there is still some hope for a breakthrough. It's just that such a position is not very suitable for heavy pursuit, and it is necessary to raise the air defense head back to the horse gun. Don't chase up under pressure, and wait for the breakthrough to be confirmed, which is the basic trading rhythm.
The trend structure of Hang Seng Technology and the Hang Seng Index is basically similar, so we will not analyze them separately, but take a look at Hang Seng Healthcare.
The daily Hang Seng Medical bottom divergence pattern is basically established, and if it can step back on a new low in the next 60 minutes, then this bottom divergence will be established, and there will be a tendency to get out of a wave of rebound.
Fourth, when medical care is no longer low-key, the market will be beyond imagination?
used to be how much the main force liked to "take medicine and drink wine", but in the past two or three years, the wine is no longer fragrant, and the medicine is not sweet, and it has become more and more difficult to swallow. Is it the market trend that has changed, or the main preferences have changed? Is it the industry growth logic that has changed, or the market style has changed? Is there no chance for medicine and medical care to return to the nine-day moon?
To make investment, we must study the laws of the market, the laws of the industry, and the logic of investment, and we must be good at seeing the essence through the phenomenon. There are four main reasons for the downturn in healthcare:
One is the return of valuations in a bear market. In a bear market cycle, almost all sectors will kill valuations, and the medical sector will be no exception.
Second, the performance declined after the epidemic subsided. The epidemic has caused the performance of some stocks to soar, and after the epidemic subsides, this part of the profit will be gone, and the decline in performance is inevitable, bringing pressure on the stock price to continue to adjust.
The third is the reconstruction of growth logic under the influence of centralized procurement. Centralized procurement has a great impact on the performance of some companies, and the market has amplified this impact, and the growth expectations of the entire health track have shifted downward, depressing the valuation center of the industry and increasing market adjustment.
Fourth, emotional catharsis under negative disturbances. Industry anti-corruption and external policy downsides have further exacerbated market concerns.
The above four points have caused the entire health track to encounter "Waterloo", so what is the medium-line pattern of the medical industry? Is it worth the investment?
The growth logic of the medical industry has not undergone fundamental changes, and the future is still highly certain, which means that the medical industry will still be a good track with great investment value for a long time.
First, the growth potential is large enough. China's huge market of 1.4 billion people provides a broad space for the development of the medical industry. The long-term positive development trend of China's economy and the sustainable growth of residents' income and consumption capacity have laid a unique foundation for the development of the medical industry. In terms of per capita medical expenditure, there is a big gap between China and developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan, which means that the entire industry still has a lot of room for growth.
Second, the growth is good enough. With the increasing health concept of residents and the arrival of an aging society, the market demand will be accelerated. In particular, the market demand for geriatric and chronic diseases such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases will grow on a large scale in the future. The sixties and seventies of the last century are China's second population peak, and more than 200 million people will enter the aging stage in the next 5-10 years, and the accelerated release of industry demand is foreseeable.
Third, the investment logic is hard enough. After more than 3 years of plunge, 300 pharmaceutical, medical, biological and other subdivisions have recorded the largest bear market decline in history, the adjustment is extremely sufficient, the valuation is at a historical low and the big bottom area, and the medium and long-term investment value and cost performance are very high.
Centralized procurement, anti-corruption and other negative is gradually digested by the market, now only the short-term impact of the earnings season and the uncertainty of the "American Biosecurity Act" impact, once the bill lands, regardless of the content, it is equivalent to the short-term impact is exhausted, after the short-term impact is digested by the market, the industry pattern after the reshaping of the medical treatment, valuation repair is inevitable.
In the big health track, I am more optimistic about precision medicine, and the constituent stocks cover many well-known pharmaceutical and medical biology big white horses and industry leaders in A-shares, such as Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Fosun Pharmaceutical, Tigermed and other innovative drug leaders, with extremely high growth.
Let's take a look at the detailed trends.
Precision medicine rose against the trend in the first two days, indicating that there are funds quietly absorbing funds to prevent its decline, which can also be understood as a small action of the main force trying to switch between high and low or adjust positions and swap shares. Now it is just stuck in the small pressure level at the white line sideways oscillation, MACD also just reversed to the 0 axis, here it is easy to form a short-term change point, the yang upward attack or the yin kill.
Today's new energy sector trend is weak, mainly affected by the first quarter performance of Tianqi Lithium, a very good industry is now rolled into this way, are overcapacity to cause trouble, I think the new energy sector will want to reverse a little difficult, what do you think? Let's discuss it.
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The above content is personal opinion only and is not intended to be instructive. The mention of individual stock funds is only to record market views and the actual operation process, and accumulate materials for future creations, without making any recommendations, please do not blindly follow up. Past performance is not indicative of the future and investors should be aware of the risk of market volatility.