One
In the article "The President of Vietnam Should Be Ta" on April 20, 2024, I think that Ong Dinh Hue will most likely take over as the president of Vietnam, but on April 22, 2024, an unexpected situation occurred, which made the choice of the president of Vietnam uncertain.
On April 22, 2024, Vietnam's Ministry of Public Security announced that Pham Tay Ha, assistant to the president of the National Assembly and deputy director of the General Office of the National Assembly, has been arrested on suspicion of committing a crime.
According to a spokesman for the Ministry of Public Security, Pham Tay Ha is suspected of "using his power to influence others for personal gain", and according to the relevant provisions of the Penal Code, the prosecution has approved the prosecution and arrest of Pham Thai Ha, and the public security department has arrested Pham Tay Ha.
Two
Pham Thai Ha was ousted in the wake of Vietnam's public security investigation into the Thuan An Group, which, like the Phuoc Son Group, led to the ouster of former President Vo Van Thanh, Thuan An has gone from a small regional company to an industry leader in major infrastructure projects in just a few years.
When Thuan An Group was founded in 2004, the registered capital was 3.9 billion VND (about 1 million RMB), 10 years, just 10 years, the registered capital has exceeded 300 billion VND, an increase of at least 77 times, the growth rate is too amazing, there are masters behind the help, there must be a cat.
Pham Thai Ha, 48 years old, has a doctorate in economics, has a practicing auditor qualification, high education, professional skills, and a particularly good career development, before becoming deputy director of the National Assembly Office in 2022, he served in the National Audit Office, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economy and other departments for a long time, and later served as the assistant to the deputy prime minister, the assistant secretary of the Hanoi Municipal Party Committee and the assistant to the president of the National Assembly.
In other words, Fan Tae-ha has been following the trajectory of Wang Tinghui's officialdom. From 2001 to 2011, Wong served in the Audit Commission, of which since 2006, Wong was the head of the Audit Commission. From 2011 to 2016, Wang Tinghui served as Minister of Finance and Minister of Economic Affairs. From 2016 to 2020, Wang Tinghui was the vice premier. In February 2020, Ong Dinh Hue was elected Secretary of the Hanoi Municipal Party Committee. In March 2021, Ong Tinghui became the chairman of the National Assembly.
It can be seen that Fan Taihe closely followed the pace of the boss and tied his future to Wang Tinghui's chariot, Wang Tinghui also took him wherever he went, and he never imagined that he would be dragged down by him one day.
Under the situation that Wang Tinghui is about to become the president of the country, the future of Fan Taeha's officialdom is also bright. On April 15, 2024, the head of the Thuan An Group was arrested, after which a number of officials involved in the case were taken away, and a week later, Fan Tae Ha was arrested, becoming the highest-ranking official involved in the case so far.
Judging from the time point of April 15, 2024, the incident occurred after Wang Tinghui's visit to China. Wang Tinghui has just visited China from April 7 to 12, and has enjoyed an extraordinary level of reception, and is considered the best choice to take over the presidency. The incident happened extremely suddenly. With the fall of Fan Taihe, Wang Tinghui's political life is likely to end.
Ong Dinh Hue, as the leader in charge of Pham Thai Ha, is bound to be disciplined when he is implicated in the case, and he also needs to bear leadership responsibility if he is not implicated in the case, which is the rule of Vietnamese officialdom, and the two deputy prime ministers who were ousted in January 2023 are living examples, and they were not exempted from responsibility after the fall of their assistants.
Three
After excluding Ong Dinh Hue, the only candidates for the new presidency of Vietnam are Pham Minh Chinh, Truong Thi Mai and Surin – who are the most promising candidates?
Pham Minh Chinh did a good job as prime minister, far from the point where he had to be replaced. The prime minister has real power and does practical things, and it is not an inevitable ladder to the top leadership, so there is no way to stand in the way of any "prince". If it weren't for Nguyen Phu Trong's handpick, Pham Minh Chinh would not have been able to become president.
Su Lin has been in the public security system, worked for more than 40 years, and has been in the position of deputy minister and minister of public security for 14 years. Is it possible for Surin to become president of the state and at the same time minister of public security? I can only say that it is unlikely. Throughout Vietnam's history, only Ho Chi Minh briefly served as foreign minister when he was president.
At this moment, from my personal point of view, Chang Thi Mei is the most likely to become the next president.
Four
In 2021, the 13th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam elected 18 members of the Politburo.
Today, four of them have left the Politburo, namely Nguyen Xuan Phuc ranked No. 2, Vo Van Thuong (No. 5), Pham Binh Minh (No. 7) and Tran Chun Anh (No. 17), and one is leaving, he is Ong Dinh Hue (No. 4), and after his departure, the vacated position of chairman of the National Assembly is likely to be taken over by Vice President of the National Assembly, Tran Thanh Minh.
Of the remaining 13 Politburo members, by the 14th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2026, except for the 82-year-old Nguyen Phu Trong, who may be "exempted from age", only three are under the age of 65 (everyone over 65 will quit the Politburo): Tran Thanh Minh, Dinh Tan Dung and Tran Kam Xiu.
They have a chance to become members of the Politburo at the 14th Party Congress, and if nothing else, all three will join the ranks of the "Troika" at the 14th Party Congress, and one of them is likely to succeed the aging Nguyen Phu Trong as Vietnam's new leader in the five-year cycle of the 14th Party Congress.
Who will it be? Will it be someone other than these three? I don't have a definite answer, but one thing is clear: Nguyen Phu Trong will succeed him as president at the 14th Party Congress in 2026.
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