If the United States drops the "financial nuclear bomb" again, it will inevitably backfire on the United States itself, and not only will it not force China to make concessions, but will accelerate the global wave of "de-dollarization."
From the beginning of the rumor that it was ready to impose sanctions on Chinese entities, to now it has been revealed that it is drafting specific measures, the whole process of the United States has only taken a few weeks.
According to the Wall Street Journal and other media reports, the United States is preparing a draft of sanctions on the links of some Chinese banks to the global financial system due to concerns that Sino-Russian trade will "increase Russia's strength in the arms industry."
U.S. President Joe Biden
The purpose of this draft is to force China to sever commercial relations with Russia, which is actually to apply the routine of the United States to launch a financial war against Russia when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict first broke out.
The question is whether the methods that were ineffective against Russia at the beginning can now be used against China? This question should first start from the angle of why the United States has launched financial sanctions against China.
On the surface, the reason why the United States wants to impose sanctions on Chinese financial institutions is because Russia and Ukraine have now fallen into a war of attrition, and the United States is worried that although Europe and the United States have imposed strict sanctions on Russia, because Russia maintains normal trade relations with other countries in the world, including China, the Russian economy can actually operate normally.
Even the Russian economy has maintained a certain degree of growth in the past 2023, if this continues for a long time, then the goal of Europe and the United States to use the Russia-Ukraine conflict to drag Russia down is not only impossible to achieve, but it is possible to let Europe and the United States be dragged down by Russia.
U.S.-Russian relations
To this end, they have brought the target of sanctions to China, in fact, they want to play the role of "killing chickens and monkeys", further isolating Russia in the world, weakening Russia's economic strength, and disintegrating Russia's war potential, so as to achieve the goal of forcing Russia to make concessions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
But the problem is that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been stalemate for more than two years, and China has taken a neutral attitude from the very beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and has not exported any military equipment to both Russia and Ukraine.
However, normal trade between China and Russia and even between China and Ukraine should not be affected by the sanctions imposed by the United States and the West at all, and the United States and the West are not qualified to make irresponsible remarks about this.
More importantly, if the United States believes that normal trade between China and Russia has made it impossible for Ukraine to defeat Russia, then why did it not wave the stick of sanctions at the beginning, but dragged it out until now?
China and Russia have close trade exchanges
The reason is actually very simple, this wave of financial offensive launched by the United States against China on the grounds of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not essentially for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but to maintain its dollar hegemony.
To put it bluntly, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe and the United States sanctioned Russia and isolated Russia, which made the fact that the United States used the dollar as a weapon against other countries to show the world.
Among them, the settlement of local currency trade between China and Russia is the top priority. Based on this, now the United States wants to force China to distance itself from Russia on the grounds of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is essentially to suppress the global wave of "de-dollarization" and suppress the local currency settlement between China and Russia.
For the United States, it can not only maintain the hegemony of the dollar, but also take advantage of Europe's desire to defeat Russia, and bind the EU to put pressure on China.
US-European relations
Now that we have figured out the real purpose of the United States, let's take a look at how they want to sanction China!
Because as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a recent interview with the media, more than 90% of the trade between China and Russia has been settled in local currency, and if China and Russia do not use the US dollar as the settlement currency, the United States will become a third party that has nothing to do with Sino-Russian trade, and how can it sanction China?
According to some US media reports, the weapon they are likely to sacrifice is "secondary sanctions".
The so-called secondary sanctions mean that although these Chinese financial institutions and banks do not use US dollars to settle trade between China and Russia, China's domestic banks and financial institutions not only deal with Russia, but also trade with Europe, the United States and even other countries around the world. And in these trades, it is possible to settle in US dollars.
International Funds Clearing System (SWIFT)
Now the United States wants to kick some financial institutions in China out of the US-led global financial system on the grounds that they serve Sino-Russian trade.
This is actually the same as when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict first broke out, when the United States kicked some Russian banks out of the "Swift" system, which can be called a "financial nuclear bomb".
However, compared with the United States sanctions against Russia, it has adopted a one-size-fits-all approach, and almost all Russian banks have been sanctioned, and this wave of sanctions that may target Chinese financial institutions should be selective, that is, among Chinese banks and financial institutions, select a few as the focus of sanctions.
This is not because the United States has become kind, but because compared with Russia, a relatively isolated economy, China, as the world's largest trading country in goods and the hub of the global manufacturing chain and supply chain, has extensive connections with other countries in the world.
The United States wields the stick of sanctions
In fact, this also shows that the United States is currently unable to succeed in using the means it used to deal with Russia.
Even, if the United States goes too far and really imposes strict sanctions on Chinese financial institutions and banks, it will only eventually promote the emergence of a faster and bigger wave of global "de-dollarization".
At that time, the United States will really shoot itself in the foot.
In this sense, whether the United States is threatening to impose financial sanctions on China or strategic deterrence is a little more significant, and there is still room for discussion between the two sides at the practical level.
U.S.-China talks
From China's point of view, of course, we cannot accept this kind of blackmail, and the more the United States uses the dollar as a weapon to contain and suppress us, the more we should actively promote the internationalization of the renminbi.
If the United States really dares to drop a "financial nuclear bomb" on China, it is destined to backfire on itself.