Hikiko:
Semiconductor chips are known as the "food of modern industry". Mastering the advanced technology of chip manufacturing is equivalent to mastering the commanding heights. At present, the development of the global chip industry is still dominated by a few Western technology companies. However, China is catching up and striving to overtake in the corner in the field of chip manufacturing.
Break through the blockade and become self-reliant
In recent years, in the field of semiconductor chips, China has continuously encountered technological blockades and sanctions from the United States and other Western countries. From Huawei, Unigroup to SMIC, they have all been more or less restricted, especially in the development of advanced process technology and key equipment, the development of Chinese enterprises has encountered serious bottlenecks.
Take extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) as an example, the core equipment used to manufacture advanced chips of 7 nanometers and below, which has long been monopolized by the Dutch company ASML. Under great pressure from the United States, from January 1 this year, the Dutch government stopped exporting ASML's deep ultraviolet immersion (DUV) lithography machines to China, and for some sanctioned companies, even relatively mature DUV lithography machines were embargoed.
In the face of the blockade, China was not discouraged, but turned the crisis into a driving force, determined to innovate independently, and strive to achieve breakthroughs in key technological fields. For example, it has been reported that a state-owned enterprise in Beijing is already working on a self-aligning quadruple patterning (SAQP) technology that can mass-produce 5nm chips to break through the EUV bottleneck.
The so-called SAQP technology is actually a "hard dismantling" process. By breaking down the lithography process into multiple steps, etching and deposition on the silicon substrate repeatedly, the transistor density is greatly increased, and the chip manufacturing process is upgraded from 7nm to 5nm or even higher.
Of course, compared to EUV lithography alone, SAQP technology is much more complex and time-consuming. That is why some Western experts are biased against SAQP. But because of this, SAQP has extremely high R&D value and broad application space. Once this technology is fully mature, it may allow China to achieve a major breakthrough in the mass production of higher-end chips such as 5nm or even 3nm.
In addition to SAQP, China is working on other cutting-edge chip manufacturing and lithography technologies, such as nano-impression technology. Unlike the imaging exposure principle used in EUV, nanoprints use an electron beam to print a circuit template directly on a silicon substrate, which can greatly reduce the number of steps, and is expected to achieve higher accuracy and higher yields.
These efforts are all to allow China to master the core technology, get rid of the situation of being stuck, and seize the opportunity on the track of chip manufacturing. As many people have said, any technology that can "catch mice" will be a "good cat" for China's semiconductor industry.
Accelerate independent innovation and encourage diversified development
In order to make China's chip industry independent and controllable, it is difficult to rely on a single enterprise or a technology, and it is necessary to form a diversified development trend. This is also the current trend of China's semiconductor industry.
In addition to technological research, the Chinese government is also creating a good environment for the development of the chip industry at the policy level. In June 2022, the State Council issued the Notice on Further Preferential Policies such as Taxation to Support the Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and the Software Industry, releasing a series of specific measures to increase fiscal and tax support to support the development of key links such as integrated circuit design, wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing.
Industry insiders believe that such a blockbuster favorable policy is very important to stimulate and guide the development of the chip industry. It is not only conducive to supporting the head enterprises to become bigger and stronger, promoting the coordinated and circular development of supply and demand in the mainland integrated circuit industry chain, but also conducive to stimulating the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized enterprises, cultivating new market players, and forming a diversified development pattern of technology and products.
Another status quo of diversified development is that many "unicorn" enterprises in the mainland's integrated circuit industry are gradually realizing industrialization and moving towards large-scale development. According to statistics, as of 2022, China has more than 100 "unicorns" of integrated circuit design companies with a valuation of more than US$1 billion, and this huge team is enough to compete with industry giants.
At the same time, China is also constantly improving its industrial support to help the growth of emerging enterprises. Taking equipment manufacturing as an example, although the mainland is not as good as foreign giants in the field of core equipment such as lithography machines, it has made breakthroughs in etching machines, epitaxial material equipment, and chemical mechanical polishing equipment (CMP). This progress has continuously reduced the overall domestic cost and improved the sustainable development capacity of China's chip industry.
It is worth mentioning that the basic software and design tools in the chip ecological chain are also weak links that cannot be ignored in China. Although China has several independent suppliers of cloud-based electronic design automation (EDA) tools, it still lacks an industrial-grade cloud-based EDA platform that can compete with international giants. With the continuous development of cloud computing and artificial intelligence technology, future chip design is inevitably inseparable from the support of powerful cloud EDA tools. Therefore, it is also urgent to improve the independent ability in this regard, which will help ensure the safety and development of China's chip industry from the source.
Talent intelligence is the core resource
In order to truly realize the independent and controllable semiconductor industry, the most important thing is to have a large talent and intellectual team to do solid support. In this regard, China already has a good foundation. According to statistics, in 2022 alone, the scale of integrated circuit design talents in mainland China will exceed 1 million, and the total number of talents in the two fields of manufacturing and equipment will also reach more than 600,000. After years of training, China has a group of chip design masters and technical experts with international standards.
However, as the track continues to upgrade, the demand for talent will continue to grow. High-end chips especially need tens of thousands of compound and interdisciplinary top talents. Industry insiders pointed out that in the future, colleges and universities need to further increase the training of chip-related majors, and focus on cultivating talents with interdisciplinary knowledge and compound ability; At the same time, enterprises should also take the initiative to increase the introduction and training of talents, and win more high-end human resources for the industry.
The collaboration between government, industry, academia, research and application is the key to ensuring continuous innovation capabilities. China is focusing on building and improving integrated circuit industry innovation centers with Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Xi'an, and Wuhan as the main nodes, and accelerating the breakthrough and industrialization process of cutting-edge semiconductor technologies through collaborative innovation of government, industry, academia and research. This model is expected to create a "Silicon Valley" of China's semiconductor industry and provide strong synergies for innovative entities.
The industry has promising prospects, and opportunities and challenges coexist
Looking to the future, China's semiconductor industry is undoubtedly a blue ocean full of hope. According to industry authorities, by 2028, China will become the world's largest mature process chip market, and its market share will increase from 31% in 2022 to 39%, surpassing all other countries and regions for the first time.
At the same time, China's breakthrough in the field of advanced process chips is also expected to accelerate. Some analysts believe that by 2027, China's self-sufficiency rate in advanced process chips of 14nm and below will increase from the current 16.3% to 48.8%, and the import substitution effect will be very significant. This will be a milestone breakthrough in ensuring national information technology security and industrial security.
However, it is necessary to clearly realize that the development of China's chip industry is not all smooth sailing. Compared with the scale of the industry, especially in the field of mid-to-high-end chips, the market share of Chinese companies is still low, and there is still a considerable distance to get rid of the dilemma of being stuck and cut off supply. The United States and its allies will continue to have restrictions on key technologies and equipment, so we must show unrelenting determination and strategic focus.
At the same time, China's chip industry still has deficiencies in talents, innovation capabilities, and industrial ecology, and needs to continue to make efforts. Only by working hard and constantly improving these core elements can we truly establish the foundation of the industry's long-term prosperity.
In short, through the strong support of government policies, the unremitting efforts of independent innovation of enterprises, the continuous gathering of talents and intelligence, and the gradual improvement of the ecological system, China's chip industry will strive to reach the top on a new track and eventually rank among the world's advanced, which is a great cause that requires the participation of the whole society.