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Text: Mo Hanxue
Edited by Mo Hanxue
[Preface]
Recently, the "Asian currency war" has begun, and the first to bear the brunt is the yen, which has plummeted, and all because the Fed is taking advantage of the opportunity to make trouble.
Perhaps the Americans think that the rich people on the earth are in the United States, so they will stir up the Asian economic situation so unscrupulously, but this time the Middle Eastern tycoons caught them off guard and proved to the world that the rich people on the earth are not only in the United States.
It is reported that in this Asian currency defense war, Middle Eastern capital has proudly recharged hundreds of millions of yuan to Chinese assets in order to help China!
So is such a move a good thing for Asia, and is it dangerous for the renminbi?
[The US dollar has raised interest rates for more than two years and has not set off too much turmoil]
Although the United States has been announcing that it will implement a policy of cutting interest rates, it has not been implemented, and the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates relentlessly for the past two years.
In fact, we all know that the US dollar interest rate hike is to combat the growing inflation problem, as well as to curb consumption and reduce the velocity of money, so as to curb the uncontrolled rise in prices.
However, such measures also stab at the vein of economic growth, directly increasing the borrowing costs of enterprises and consumers, revealing the essence of which is also increasing the pressure on enterprises.
On top of that, there is a particularly subtle narrative about the dollar's interest rate hike for more than two years, that is, the Americans believe that if they grit their teeth and continue to choose not to cut interest rates, the countries of the East will collapse.
However, according to reality, the US dollar interest rate hike has not set off any big waves in the past two years.
We have always scoffed at the blind confidence of the United States, as if they thought that the world was being manipulated by them, and that no matter which country would eventually "submit" to them.
However, in these successive confrontations, the United States has not taken much advantage of China, and sometimes it will even be countered by us.
Even so, the United States showed no signs of restraint, and on April 19, one of the "Fed's three in command" made a particularly hawkish speech, warning the outside world: "If the data shows that the Fed needs to raise interest rates, then the Fed will inevitably raise interest rates!"
Such words can't help but remind us of the previous routine of US dollar interest rate hikes: they will blow up the US dollar bonds of various countries in advance, break through the exchange rate defense, then the financial market and real estate collapse, and finally the value of industrial assets will plunge.
When the dollar starts to cut interest rates again, then everything will fall into place, and the American capitalists will be able to buy all kinds of things all over the world with cheap dollars and reap the fruits of economic development in various countries at will.
However, this wishful thinking of the United States is not too loud, and they have found that the dollar has raised interest rates for more than two years, and there is no other big movement except for a few small countries with a little storm......
[The Asian currency defense war begins, and the yen is pulled down by the United States]
Recently, under the deliberate instigation of the United States, the Asian currency defense war has officially begun!
Since the United States has raised interest rates for two years without success, they have chosen to sacrifice Japan and want to use the yen as a fuse to continue their attack on Asian currencies.
On April 15, local time, the report showed that the yen fell below the 154 mark against the dollar, hitting the lowest in the history of the Japanese stock market.
There is no doubt that Japan has been officially pulled into the water by the United States, and the yen has plummeted all the way, and it does not even show the slightest sign of stopping.
This behavior of the United States makes people wonder: Isn't Japan the most loyal younger brother of the United States? In the end, it still can't escape being used by international capital?
In fact, judging from the current situation, this is indeed the case! The strong attack of the US dollar has caused the mainstream Asian currencies to suffer a full-scale storm......
On April 17, officials from Japan and South Korea verbally intervened in the foreign exchange market at the same time, while Indonesia's central bank chose to end up directly, and some small currencies did not escape the currency defense war.
Just harvesting a single country in Japan has long been unable to satisfy the appetite of the United States, so the United States has been instigating the Russian-Ukrainian war and harvesting European countries fiercely.
Now two years later, the appetite of the United States is growing, and they need more countries to replenish their blood, so they will set their sights on the whole of Asia.
Coupled with the fact that the size of the U.S. debt has been breaking records in recent years, it means that the U.S. government may face very serious political and economic challenges in the coming years, which will force the U.S. to accelerate the pace of harvesting other countries.
However, what they didn't expect was that they would suffer a loss in this Asian currency defense war, so they chose to pull their "most loyal little brother" Japan into the water, which can reduce a certain burden on their economic development to a certain extent.
The continuous decline of the yen has made the Japanese people begin to worry, and some people say: "The little money we have worked so hard to earn is catching up with the current form of the yen plummeting, and we can only watch these wealth shrink little by little, but there is nothing we can do to stop it." ”
From this passage, we can see that the collapse of the yen has caused a major impact on the wealth of the whole of Japan, but under such circumstances, the United States still has not chosen to stop......
[Middle Eastern capital rushed to the aid and increased the position of Chinese assets, what are they buying?]
But then again, the Asian currency defense war has been so fierce recently, so what is the situation on the mainland?
I believe that the development of the mainland in the past few years is obvious to all, and our own strength is also relatively strong, so even in the "whirlpool" designed by the United States, our country has the ability to protect itself and fight back.
But the United States is too proud to think that there is no richer country on earth than the United States, and they are trying to use the dollar to influence the global economy, so as to achieve their dominance.
In response to such an attitude of the United States, Middle Eastern capital stood up, and they rushed to the aid of the mainland, and increased their positions in mainland assets, directly using money to convince the Americans.
On April 21, a report specifically pointed out that since last year, European and American funds have greatly decreased their willingness to invest in the Chinese market.
But what people never expected was that at this critical juncture, the Middle East sovereign wealth fund repeatedly sold the assets of the Chinese people.
According to reliable sources, on April 22, 2024, Saudi Aramco invested a huge amount of money in Hengli Petrochemical, which also indicates that the Middle East has a high recognition of the Chinese market.
Moreover, the report also announced that the US dollar will raise interest rates, China and the United States will compete, and many European and American companies have begun to adopt the "China +1" strategy, which means that Chinese assets are now estimated to decline.
The Middle East sovereignty has always believed that the behavior of the United States is too rampant, and the actions of European and American companies are nothing more than a good opportunity for Middle Easterners to see the bottom.
Last year, foreign media reported that the sovereign wealth funds of several major countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, held meetings here, and there was also news that these countries held more than $10 trillion in funds, and in the next few years, there will be 10 percent of the trillions of dollars to support Chinese assets.
It is reported that they have more than $10 trillion in funds, and 10% of them will be up to trillions of dollars in Chinese assets in the next few years.
After all, Saudi Arabia's investment in the mainland is a very serious event for the United States, but the show has just begun, and investing in Chinese assets in the Middle East is obviously part of their big plan.
[In the face of the impact of a strong United States, how should we deal with it in the future?]
How should China, which plays a key role in Asia, an important engine of global currency growth, face the onslaught of a strong United States as a more balanced global economic structure emerges with the addition of Middle Eastern capital?
First of all, in the field of economy and science and technology, we should pay more attention to cultivating the ability to innovate independently, further enhance economic competitiveness, and ensure national security.
Although the mainland has made some progress in some fields, compared with some developed countries, we still have some shortcomings, so we should strengthen innovation in technology.
Secondly, in the economic field, the mainland should continue to promote the "One Belt, One Road" strategy, which will help strengthen economic cooperation with countries along the route and build a stronger economic and trade system together.
Finally, we should also carry out military cooperation and exchanges with other countries, and in the military field, we should also strengthen our national defense capabilities and improve our military technology level.
Today's international situation is very unstable, and we must pay attention to the development of advanced weapons and equipment, so that we can ensure the safe development of the mainland.
【Conclusion】
Now that the size of the US debt has reached 35 trillion US dollars, the most surprising thing is that this growth rate is unabated, if the US continues to raise interest rates, then the final result will definitely not be beneficial for the US.
In addition, Middle Eastern capital has now begun to invest in mainland assets, and the international situation has changed drastically, and Americans should also wake up and should not continue to live in their dreams
Resources:
Brokerage China reported on April 17, 2024 in "Wu Chongbang! Currency War, Begin!"
On August 15, 2023, Finet reported that "Evergrande Automobile was aided by "Middle Eastern tyrants", and China Evergrande may lose its controlling stake!".
A report by the National Research Network on April 22, 2024 in "Asian Economies Wage Currency Defense".
Wall Street News reported on April 15, 2024, "Emerging Markets' Currency War, Focus on Asia".