According to the independent Russian news website Euronovaya Gazeta, "Chechen leader Kadyrov is in danger of dying soon due to worsening pancreatic necrosis, and the Kremlin is already looking for his successor." In addition, the article also mentions Kadyrov's MRI treatment, which seems to be well known to support the process.
However, in fact, as early as 4 years ago, Kadyrov was rumored to be ill, and when attending public events, we can also see that his weight has changed significantly.
And in July last year, Kadyrov was also given a "critical illness notice" by Ukraine. At that time, a senior official of the Ukrainian Security Service revealed that Kiev had learned the news that Kadyrov was critically ill. There is also information that Moscow is preparing to send Kadyrov from Chechnya to the UAE for treatment due to the inadequacy of Kadyrov's personal doctor.
However, with Kadyrov's frequent appearances after that, this rumor was also debunked. And now that rumors have risen again, it cannot be ruled out that Ukraine is deliberately spreading false and false news to create panic when it is in a passive position on the front line. After all, the Chechen troops have always been a nightmare for the Ukrainian army, and the Ukrainian army has not been able to take advantage of it on the battlefield, so naturally it can only get over it.
But then again, while the jury is still out on whether Kadyrov is critically ill, his health is a cause for concern, and the Russian side needs to plan ahead. Because if Kadyrov has any accidents, or is unable to continue as the leader of Chechnya, the ensuing negative effects will be a test for Putin.
[Kadyrov's body is bloated]
As we all know, in history, Chechnya has experienced two major conflicts that led to long-term instability in the region, and the Russian government invested huge resources to gradually stabilize the situation. And Kadyrov, as the leader of the Chechen Republic, is considered a key ally of Putin in the North Caucasus. He has played an important role in controlling the security situation in Chechnya, combating extremism, and ensuring the region's loyalty to the Kremlin.
And if Kadyrov has any contingencies, it could lead to a power vacuum, triggering a new internal struggle that would affect the stability of the entire North Caucasus. Given Chechnya's separatist tendencies in the past, this instability could inspire other regions with similar tendencies, posing a challenge to Russia's national security.
For example, the terrorist attack on the Moscow Concert Hall that occurred some time ago is a living example.
In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks, Russia quickly pointed the finger at the United States and Ukraine, but there is evidence that the root cause of the incident may still be within Russia. Because there are three suspects involved in the incident, they were eventually arrested in the southern Russian Republic of Dagestan.
[Riots broke out in the Republic of Dagestan at the end of last year]
This scene is actually not surprising. Because over the past few decades, the Republic of Dagestan has been marked by violent incidents caused by extremists, often associated with countering Russian control and influence. In addition to the Republic of Dagestan, there were also rumors of independence from Russia in the Republic of Ingushetia.
And Kadyrov, as the "spokesman" of Chechnya, ensured the region's loyalty to Moscow and at the same time formed a deterrent to other regions that intended independence. Without a character like Kadyrov, it will be difficult for Putin to find a replacement who can also ensure stability in the region. This could not only undermine Putin's control over remote regions of the Russian Federation, but also weaken his political authority and image.
Internationally, Kadyrov has promoted Russia's geopolitical interests by establishing ties with Muslim countries in the Middle East, and is a tool of Russia's foreign policy in the Middle East and elsewhere. For example, shortly after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Kadyrov, on behalf of Russia's 30 million Muslims, expressed his gratitude to 50 countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and praised these countries for standing on the side of justice.
[Araudinov was appointed deputy head of the military-political directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense]
In addition, Chechnya has also sent elite troops to fight in Syria for four years. Without Kadyrov, Russia would likely face more challenges in foreign affairs, particularly in seeking to establish or maintain ties through Chechnya and the Islamic world. And the most immediate impact is that if Kadyrov is lost as a central figure, the morale and efficiency of the Chechen troops may be affected, leading to the weakening of Russia's strength on the battlefield.
So Putin's immediate priority is to find a capable successor.
It is worth mentioning that just before the news of Kadyrov's critical illness came out, Major General Araudinov, commander of the "Chechen "Akhmet" special forces and deputy commander of the 2nd Army Corps of the Russian army in Luhansk, had just been appointed by the Russian Ministry of Defense to the post of deputy director of the General Directorate of Military and Political Affairs of the Ministry of Defense.
In addition to his outstanding achievements in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Araudinov was Kadyrov's right-hand man, and his father and brother were both killed at the hands of the rebels of Chechen bandit leader Dudayev. In addition, he is also a scholar, with a doctorate in political science from Lomonosov Moscow State University, which can be said to be a fierce general.
In addition, there is another movement worth noting. Two months ago, Kadyrov appointed his eldest son, Akhmet, as Chechnya's head of youth affairs. And in March last year, Putin also met with Ahmed at the Kremlin Palace. These signs make the outside world think that Kadyrov is paving the way for his eldest son. But in terms of age, Ahmed just turned 19 this year, and I am afraid that it will take a long time to take over. How to solve this problem, Putin will have to work hard.