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China Research Network
The recent phenomenon of "price rise" in the off-season in the shipping market is indeed concerning. In general, the shipping market has obvious off-peak season characteristics, and the increase in freight rates is often accompanied by the emergence of the peak season of sea freight. However, the price increase that occurred in the off-season this time did break the conventional market law.
First of all, we need to recognize that the price of the ocean freight market is affected by a variety of factors. Although we are in the traditional off-season, the recovery of the global economy, increased international trade activities and the growth in demand for the transportation of goods are likely to be important factors driving up freight rates. In addition, the tension in the global supply chain and the rising cost of fuel may also put some pressure on freight rates.
Specific to the price increase letters issued by Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and other leading shipping companies, some routes have increased by nearly 70%, which undoubtedly brought a lot of shock to the entire market. As industry leaders, these shipping companies can often lead the market trend with their price increases, which will have a certain impact on other shipping companies and the entire industry.
The emergence of the wave of price increases has undoubtedly increased operating costs for enterprises that rely on sea transportation for international trade. The freight rate of a 40-foot container can rise by up to $2,000, which is undoubtedly a significant expense for those companies that need to transport a large amount of money. However, from another perspective, this may also prompt companies to pay more attention to cost control and supply chain management to deal with the potential risk of freight fluctuations.
For the maritime industry as a whole, the emergence of a wave of price increases may bring a series of chain effects. On the one hand, it could push the industry to become more efficient and environmentally friendly to accommodate the growing demand for transportation and cost pressures. On the other hand, it may also intensify market competition and prompt more fierce competition among shipping companies to compete for market share and customer resources.
In short, the "price rise tide" in the off-season of the shipping market is a complex and changeable phenomenon, which is affected and restricted by a variety of factors. This is both a challenge and an opportunity for businesses and industries. Only through in-depth analysis and understanding of market rules, strengthening cost control and supply chain management, can we be invincible in the fierce market competition.
According to the data of the China Shipbuilding Industry Association, in the first two months of this year, both the number of shipbuilding completions, new ship orders, and hand-held ship orders in the country have increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 95.4%, 64.4%, and 31.3%. From the perspective of ship types, the proportion of container ships in the completed ship products has increased significantly; Among the newly connected ship products, the proportion of oil tankers has increased significantly, accounting for 36.9%.
According to the analysis of the China Research Industry Research Institute:
According to transportation data, in 2022, the national maritime freight volume will reach 4.151 billion tons, of which the ocean freight volume will be 918 million tons, accounting for 22.12% of the total freight volume; The coastal transport freight volume was 3.233 billion tons, accounting for 77.88%. From 2013 to 2022, China's seaborne cargo turnover showed an overall growth trend, with China's seaborne cargo turnover in 2022 being 101977 billion ton-kilometers, of which the ocean-going cargo turnover was 6,144.2 billion ton-kilometers and the coastal cargo turnover was 4,053.5 billion ton-kilometers.
Xu Lirong, chairman of COSCO Shipping Group, the world's largest shipping group, pointed out in a speech that shipping is national transportation. No matter how the external environment changes, shipping, as the most important carrier of global trade, its status and role have never changed, and it is still irreplaceable. The reason why shipping can become the main carrier of international trade is mainly because it has four irreplaceable aspects:
First, the cost advantage is irreplaceable, and among all the current international trade methods, sea freight has always been the most economical mode of transportation.
Second, the network advantage is irreplaceable, at present, there are more than 2,100 liner routes in the world, and the east-west routes, north-south routes and regional routes are criss-crossed, covering a wide range of areas, forming a dense and efficient market network.
Third, cargoworthiness is irreplaceable, and sea freight can transport almost all kinds and forms of goods, breaking the limitations of other modes of transportation in terms of size, weight, and cargoability.
Fourth, the relevance to trade is irreplaceable, and any change in the field of trade will directly affect shipping, and vice versa.
The future development trend of the shipping industry may be affected by a number of factors, including but not limited to global economic conditions, trade policies, technological advances, environmental regulations, and developments in emerging markets. Here are some possible trends:
Digitalization and intelligence: With the continuous development of technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, the shipping industry will further realize digitalization and intelligence. This includes smart ships, smart ports, smart logistics, and more. For example, optimize routes and improve transportation efficiency through data analysis; Use automation and robotics to reduce labor costs and improve work accuracy and safety; Real-time tracking of equipment and goods through IoT technology to improve logistics transparency.
Green shipping: In the face of increasingly severe environmental issues, the shipping industry will pay more attention to environmental protection and sustainable development. On the one hand, it will reduce the carbon emissions of ships by adopting more environmentally friendly fuel and power technologies, such as liquefied natural gas, hydrogen fuel, wind energy, etc.; On the other hand, by optimizing routes and improving the efficiency of ships, energy consumption is reduced and the environmental impact during transportation is reduced.
Regionalization and diversification: With the changes in the global trade pattern, the shipping industry will pay more attention to regionalization and diversification. On the one hand, by strengthening trade with neighboring countries and regions, the development of regional shipping service network; On the other hand, by expanding its business scope, it provides diversified services, such as cold chain logistics, dangerous goods transportation, etc., to meet the needs of different customers.
Cooperation and integration: In the face of increasingly fierce market competition, shipping companies will pay more attention to cooperation and integration. By establishing strategic cooperative relations with other shipping companies, logistics companies, port operators, etc., we can share resources, complement each other's advantages, and improve overall competitiveness. At the same time, through mergers and acquisitions, restructuring and other ways to integrate industry resources, optimize the industrial structure, and improve industry efficiency.
Policy implications: The government's policy orientation will also have an important impact on the development trend of the shipping industry. For example, if the government increases its support for green shipping and promotes the research and development and application of environmentally friendly technologies, then the development of green shipping may accelerate. In addition, adjustments to trade policies and changes in tariffs may also have an impact on the trade flow and volume of the shipping industry.
It is important to note that these trends are not isolated, they influence and interact with each other. Therefore, in the future development of the shipping industry, it is necessary to comprehensively consider various factors and formulate flexible and diverse strategies and measures to cope with the changing market environment and challenges.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the mainland shipping industry should closely focus on the requirements of "basing itself on the new development stage, implementing the new development concept, and building a new development pattern", benchmark the "four first-class", take the national high-grade waterways and major ports as the main body, and focus on "making up for shortcomings, promoting integration, improving services, strengthening innovation, green transformation, and deepening reform".
In 2030, China will continue to be the world's largest trading country in goods and will dominate the global container shipping trade. In 2030, China's total international shipping volume is expected to reach 6.2 billion tons, accounting for about 17% of global shipping volume. Among them, the growth of demand for iron ore and coal in dry bulk transportation will slow down significantly, grain and oil imports will grow rapidly, and the total volume of international container import and export sea cargo will exceed 200 million TEU.
This report makes an in-depth and thorough analysis of the development of the shipping industry at home and abroad, makes a detailed study on the market situation, technical status quo, supply and demand situation of the mainland industry, focuses on the analysis of key enterprises at home and abroad, industry development trends and industry investment, and also discusses the development of the downstream shipping industry.
If you want to know more about the detailed analysis of the shipping industry, you can click to view the research report of China Research Institute Puhua
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