原文作者:Mary Liu
原文来源:比推BitPushnev
On Tuesday, the crypto market was mixed, with Bitcoin bulls and bears evenly matched after the halving event, trading steadily above $66,000.
The top 200 altcoins by market capitalization were mixed, with 7 of them recording double-digit gains. Hedera (HBAR) led the gainers with a 40.4% increase, followed by cat in a dogs world (MEW) with a 31.9% rise and Akash Network with a 24.2% increase. Stablecoin project Ethena (ENA) saw the biggest drop with a 7.7% decline, Ontology (ONT) fell 7.6%, and Jito (JTO) fell 5.8%.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap is currently $2.45 trillion, with Bitcoin dominating 53.4%.
At the close, the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq closed higher, up 1.20%, 0.69%, and 1.59%, respectively. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.4% on the day.
Bitcoin's 200-day moving average is approaching an all-time high
Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said: "Bitcoin has recently rebounded from an ascending trend line and is now trying to break above the short-term resistance level of around $67,500. And the release of US manufacturing and services PMI data this morning spurred a surge in risk assets. 」
Analysts also said that Bitcoin's 200-day moving average, a key measure of long-term trends, is approaching new all-time highs, challenging its February 2022 peak of $49,452. Past data shows that after this value exceeds the previous peak, the most intense phase of the bull cycle unfolds, that is, when the indicator rises to new highs, the price of bitcoin rises.
In early November 2020, six months after the third halving, Bitcoin's 200-day moving average rose above its then-high of $10,320. By mid-April 2021, Bitcoin had risen 4.5x to $63,800.
After hitting a new high on December 2016 (five months after the second halving), BTC surged more than 200% in 12 months to nearly $20,000. In November 2012, around the time of the first halving, after the moving average rose to new highs, there was a similar rapid rally.
Weak in the short term, bullish in the long term
However, historical performance is not indicative of future results.
Matt Ballensweig, head of networks at BitGo, said in a note: "In the short term, Bitcoin's price action after halving tends to be fairly calm. The increase in newly mined Bitcoin per day after the halving is 450 BTC, which is barely enough to affect daily liquidity or immediate price action, in fact, miners may even need to sell some of their existing BTC inventory to offset the reduction in daily revenue, resulting in increased selling pressure in the days/weeks following the event. 」
Ballensweig believes that in the long run, the daily reduction in supply totals 164,000 BTC ($12 billion) per year, combined with net new demand for bitcoin from ETFs, could lead to a significant increase in the price of bitcoin in the long run. The data confirms this, as the average return for Bitcoin in the month following all historical halving events is just 1.67%, while the average return for Bitcoin in the year following the halving event is as high as 3,211%, highlighting the difference between short-term and long-term impacts.
Steven Lubka, Head of Private Accounts at Bitcoin at Swan Bitcoin, agrees with Ballensweig that "the impact of the halving will be more pronounced in the medium to long term".
"At current prices, about $30 million a day is unsold, which may not seem like much every day, but over time, the volume can increase significantly, for example, $1 billion for more than a month and $12 billion for more than a year," Lubka said. 」
"Reduced supply has a mechanical impact and pushes up prices," Lubka said. In addition, halving is Bitcoin's built-in marketing, attracting new users and creating a reflective social layer that further drives up the price through increased demand. Ultimately, the combination of guaranteed supply reduction and social impact drives Bitcoin's long-term bullishness. 」
As the market waits for the next catalyst to get crypto prices back on the uptrend, MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe said that any pullback below $60,000 for Bitcoin would be a "huge buying opportunity."