Although I don't want to admit it, the reality is that we can't ignore it, and the history of wheat repeats itself last year.
As the new wheat harvest is getting closer and closer, the transaction is getting lower and lower, and the auction of policy wheat has become more and more crazy.
In the end, he still couldn't escape this catastrophe.
Especially after the wheat fell below 1.3 yuan/jin, it was more like a deflated ball, continued to go down, and began to move closer to 1.25 yuan/jin, and some have even fallen below 1.25 yuan/jin.
For a time, the wheat market was mournful.
Although there were a lot of bullish voices before, it is useless to shout up, and in the end, it is necessary to look at it objectively.
For now, at least, the wheat market is a one-sided affair:
First, the pressure on policy wheat continues.
It can be said that the wheat fell like this, and the auction of policy wheat was the direct culprit. Although the filming has started ahead of schedule this year, it still failed to alleviate the pressure on the follow-up market, so it was forced to start the big sale market again.
The second is that the demand really can't be stopped.
Since the withdrawal of wheat substitution, flour companies are in charge, but this side is not good. Because the downstream demand for flour is also weak.
At present, it is the off-season of flour demand, and the flour is generally in stock, even if the company wants to raise the price, but the sales are not smooth, there is nothing to be done.
On the other hand, although the price of pigs is also shouting up, but in the end it is still swaying below the cost line, the demand for feed is sluggish, and the demand for by-products such as bran is even lower.
The flour can't move, the bran is also falling in price, and the operating rate of flour companies is declining under constant pressure.
And at this time, when it comes to the policy wheat sale, it is really impossible to catch it.
Third, the new wheat harvest is expected to continue, and it has perfectly taken over the baton of wheat supply.
Policy: There will always be a time when the wheat auction will be finished, or the current situation is very close to the end of the auction, but this does not mean that the supply of wheat will decline.
As the new wheat harvest draws closer and the expectation of a bumper crop increases, the relay wheat supply makes the wheat bullish become a distant prospect.
As a result, most of the grain-holding entities that wanted to stand up in the early stage also wanted to stop the loss.
At this time, corn with wheat as the top bottom also began to enter the downward market, to be sure, I don't know who dragged down whom, but corn, wheat both fell, this is a lose-lose situation.
Under such heavy pressure, the center of gravity of wheat has been declining, and to make matters worse, with the decline of old wheat, the transaction of new wheat has also weakened frequently, resulting in further lower market expectations for new wheat.
How low is it?
Previously, the market still had some confidence in Xinmai, and was generally optimistic about the position of 2600-2700 yuan/ton, but now the price gap between Chenmai is declining, and the price gap between Xinmai is narrowing, and it is getting closer and closer to Xinmai on the market, and the market believes that this is a manifestation of Xinmai transfer.
As a result, the expectation of new wheat has further declined, and it is generally seen that it is 2500-2600 yuan/ton, and some have even seen 2400-2500 yuan/ton.
As a result, the pressure on Xinmai also followed.
And for the follow-up, pay attention to a few things:
First, the price difference between new wheat and corn determines whether some of the new wheat will flow into feed, thereby alleviating part of the supply pressure.
The second is the change of new wheat production, especially regional changes.
The whole is the whole, but the specific market in various places still changes according to the changes in supply and demand in various places, so we should pay more attention to the changes in the production of wheat in various places.
The third is the corn market.
It is said that corn is the bottom of wheat, and when corn weakens frequently, the center of gravity of wheat will definitely decline, but once the bottom of corn is determined, wheat will not be far from stabilizing.
In the end, even if the decline is so fierce, we still think that Chen Mai will still have a chance for a period of time after Xinmai is listed, but how big this opportunity is and how long it will last depends on how much surplus grain is left after this round of wheat market storm.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!