The latest GDP list is revealed, who is leading and who is falling behind?

National Strategy

2024-04-24 12:06Posted in Guangdong financial field creators

Text: Kaifeng

The provincial economy is facing a new round of reshuffle.

The economic market exceeds expectations, who is the biggest contributor?

In the first quarter of this year, the country's total GDP reached 29.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, which was not only higher than the growth rate of last year, but also significantly higher than the expectations of international institutions.

Among the major industries, except for the real estate industry, which continued to grow negatively, other industries maintained positive growth, with the information industry, manufacturing, and catering and accommodation industries being the most prominent.

The national economy has shown extraordinary resilience, but the provincial economy has once again diverged, with some places soaring and others retreating.

The latest GDP list is revealed, who is leading and who is falling behind?

In the first quarter of this year, what important changes have taken place in the provincial economy?

First, the major economic provinces are still bravely taking the lead and becoming the anchor of the country's steady economic growth.

An important meeting held not long ago pointed out that "major economic provinces should really take the lead."

If the economy of a large province is stable, the national economy will be stable, which is verified in the latest economic data.

Among the top 5 economic provinces, the GDP growth rate of Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang has significantly outperformed the country, and Jiangsu's quarterly increment ranks first in the country.

Henan's final GDP was adjusted last year, resulting in a statistically negative nominal growth in the first quarter of this year, but according to the adjusted data, the actual growth rate is still positive.

It is precisely because of the adjustment of the final nuclear data that Sichuan's total GDP caught up with Henan for the first time last year, and the largest province in the central and western regions changed hands for the first time.

However, in the first quarter, Henan's GDP still ranked fifth in the country, and it is worth observing whether Sichuan can successfully defend this year.

Second, from the perspective of economic ranking, Hubei's quarterly GDP surpassed Fujian's, and other provinces did not change.

As a large province with a GDP of 5 trillion yuan, the economies of Hubei, Fujian and Hunan provinces have always been catching up with each other, but after a strong recovery in the post-epidemic era, Hubei's leading edge has begun to be highlighted.

In 2020, Hubei will have a rare negative GDP growth under the severe impact of the epidemic, being overtaken by Fujian, and facing the risk of Hunan pressing step by step.

However, with the impact of the epidemic no longer existing, coupled with the new changes brought about by foreign trade, the annual GDP of Hubei and Fujian has already achieved overtaking, and the quarterly GDP has also completed the target.

Third, the economies of Northeast China and Tianjin began to stabilize, and the GDP growth rates of Jilin and Liaoning once again outperformed the market.

In recent years, the Northeast has been controversial due to economic slowdown, urban shrinkage, population loss, and economic crowding, and the saying that "the southwest catches up with the northeast" is endless.

However, since last year, the GDP growth rate of Northeast China has finally changed from a long-term underperformance of the country, and the trend of net population loss has rarely reversed.

Last year, the natural population growth in the three northeastern provinces was still declining, but the net inflow of people across provinces in Liaoning and Jilin was 86,000 and 43,000 respectively, reversing the continuous net outflow of population between provinces since 2011.

The new economic trend of Northeast Asia is not unrelated to the changes in the geopolitical situation of Northeast Asia, and it is also inseparable from the help of a series of new actions to revitalize Northeast Asia.

Of course, a strong industry is really strong, and it is worth paying attention to whether the Northeast economic industry can bottom out and rebound.

Why is the nominal GDP growth rate generally lower than the actual growth rate?

As we often say, GDP growth comes partly from the growth of prices, and partly from the growth of real production.

In contrast, there are two major indicators to measure GDP growth, one is the nominal growth rate at current prices, and the other is the real growth rate after deducting prices and inflation.

Generally speaking, nominal growth is greater than real growth because inflation is the norm, as it has been for decades, and is the development model we are most familiar with.

However, it is not uncommon for prices to contract, such as lower CPI and PPI indices and the inflation deflator turns negative, and the nominal growth rate will naturally be lower than the real growth rate.

In terms of actual growth rate, Jilin, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hubei and Zhejiang exceeded 6%, and Jilin ranked first in the country with an actual growth rate of 6.5%.

In terms of nominal growth, Zhejiang, Beijing, Shandong, Xinjiang and other provinces exceeded 6%, and the nominal growth rate of these provinces was higher than the actual growth rate.

The inconsistency between the real growth rate and the nominal growth rate is not unrelated to the inflation level in various places, but there are also statistical factors for data adjustment.

This year is the year of the economic census, and the GDP of some provinces at the end of last year has been adjusted, resulting in GDP falling short of expectations in the quarter of this year.

As one of the three major periodic surveys, the economic census is held every five years, and in the last round of economic census, nearly half of the provinces were squeezed, but there were also a number of economically strong provinces that have been greatly adjusted.

According to the statistics department, the fifth round of economic census will be unveiled in the third quarter, and it will be interesting to see who will have the last laugh.

Why did the provinces with the strongest growth last year fall short of expectations?

In 2023, with GDP growth rates of 9.5% and 9.2% respectively, Tibet and Hainan won the growth champion and runner-up.

However, in the first quarter of this year, Hainan's GDP growth rate fell to 3.3%, and Tibet's GDP fell to 5.1%, both underperforming the market, which was unexpected.

Judging from the "troika" of investment, consumption, and import and export, whether it is Hainan or Tibet, the trend of foreign trade and investment is good, but consumption is less than expected.

According to the data, in the first quarter of 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Tibet were -0.4% year-on-year, and in Hainan -4.2%, which is one of the few provinces with negative growth.

Hainan is the most typical. The existence of favorable policies in the free trade port and the strong rebound of cultural and tourism consumption in the post-epidemic era are considered to be the long-term support for Hainan's economic upswing.

As we all know, Hainan is an international tourism island, and cultural tourism consumption can be called the biggest pillar, and the first quarter across the Spring Festival is the largest consumption season in Hainan's history.

So some people ask, is the low consumption dragged down by cultural tourism?

Not really. During this year's Spring Festival, Hainan has been on the hot search many times due to port traffic jams, and the controversy over why Hainan does not build a cross-sea bridge is endless, and the heat of cultural tourism can be seen.

The data proves it.

In the first quarter of this year, Hainan received 32.06 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, while the total tourism revenue exceeded 20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%.

The growth rate of income exceeds the growth rate of tourists, indicating that Hainan's per capita tourism consumption is still growing, and cultural and tourism consumption is extremely strong, not only not a drag, but a strong support.

The total retail sales of consumer goods in the city, which is an indicator of consumption, is dominated by commodity consumption and catering consumption, while cultural tourism mostly belongs to service consumption, although the two overlap, but they are not the same concept.

The negative growth of social consumption means that the consumption of local goods is less than expected, coupled with the negative growth of CPI, which drags down the consumption market.

In addition, the factors of negative real estate growth cannot be ignored.

Although Hainan has vigorously de-real estate in recent years, the proportion of real estate in the broad sense (real estate + construction) in GDP is still as high as 17%, and the impact of fluctuations in the real estate cycle continues to exist.

According to the data, in the first quarter of this year, Hainan's real estate development investment fell by 5.5%, while the annual growth of last year was 1.1%, and the impact of positive to negative should not be underestimated.

Of course, short-term volatility is not something to fear. Hainan will officially close its borders in 2025 and become a free trade port in the mainland, and the prospects are worth looking forward to.

Foreign trade can be called one of the biggest variables affecting the regional economy.

The geopolitical conflict has not stopped, the great power game is still in full swing, and the global industrial transfer is still continuing, which has brought huge uncertainty to global foreign trade.

In the first quarter of this year, the total import and export volume of the mainland's foreign trade exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time, of which exports reached 5.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, maintaining strong resilience.

However, at the provincial level, exports are clearly differentiated, with different industrial structures, trade objects, and export products, which affect the export trend of various regions.

Among them, the rise of the "new three" exports represented by electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries, and the rise and fall of the "old three" such as clothing, furniture, and home appliances are also stirring the export pattern of different regions.

As a major foreign trade province, the export growth rate of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Fujian and other eastern provinces has collectively been red, which has effectively stabilized the mainland's foreign trade market.

Guangdong, the largest province in foreign trade, imported and exported 2.04 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the scale hit a new high in the same period in history, continuing to rank first in the country.

Like last year, the provinces with the strongest export growth rate once again fell to Tibet, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Guangxi, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%, and Tibet soared more than 2 times.

These provinces share a common characteristic: border provinces, numerous foreign trade ports, and direct benefits from geopolitical changes.

The mainland's foreign trade is showing a new pattern of "rising in the east and falling in the west", and trade with ASEAN, Central Asia, Russia and other provinces is still frequent, and Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Xinjiang and other provinces are all beneficiaries.

In contrast, Henan, Hunan and Jiangxi have seen a significant negative growth in exports, which are among the few provinces with negative growth.

Henan mainly exports electronic products such as mobile phones, Hunan mainly uses labor-intensive products such as electromechanical and textile and garment, and Jiangxi mainly relies on machinery, electronic products and steel.

Mobile phones account for half of Henan's exports. As the world's largest production base for Apple's mobile phones, mobile phone exports are susceptible to changes in corporate sales and the fragmentation of the global industry.

However, the industry has a cycle, exports also exist seasonally, the first quarter can not represent the whole year, whose exports can remain strong, we wait and see.

At the same time, due to the different industrial structure and export cycle, coupled with the impact of factors such as the Spring Festival, the proportion of the economy in the first quarter of each province is not the same, and some provinces have more advantages in the second half of the year.

Therefore, the battle for provincial economy, while it is still ongoing, is far from the end.

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