Author | Li Xunhuan
Edit| Mia
With the May Day schedule approaching, the major film companies have successively started intensive publicity and screening actions, striving to hit the explosion point before the schedule really comes, and tap the audience's interest in watching the movie to the greatest extent.
However, in terms of publicity and pre-sale, the effect is obviously average.
The most optimistic "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team" by major media only barely exceeded 10 million in pre-sales, and it was only less than 2 million ahead of "Spy Playing Codename: White". On the one hand, the pre-sales of several waist movies are very bitten, and on the other hand, they are so low that there is no need to open the "May Day New Film Box Office List".
As of 18 o'clock today, the total pre-sales of the market have not even exceeded 40 million, which is not as good as a "King of the Sky" in the same period last year.
It is inevitable that people want to ask: Why is this year's May Day file weak?
The tactics of the sea of the sea have failed
Compared with previous years, there are many films with selling points on May Day this year, and they can even be called a sea of film tactics.
There are all kinds of classic animations, new IP works, suspense films, comedy films, crime films, and romance films, so many choices, I believe there is always one that can awaken the audience's interest in watching movies, but for the market, more films are not all good things.
Good news: This year's May Day can use the film sea tactic. Bad news: Without taking the lead, the tactics of Katahai have failed.
First of all, there are too many films in the schedule, which exceeds the capacity of the schedule.
Half a month ago, more than ten films were squeezed into this year's May Day file, and 7 of them are expected to break 100 million at the box office, which is more than the number of films in the head schedule such as the Spring Festival file and the National Day file.
At that time, entertainment unicorns speculated that there would only be filmmakers who could not bear the pressure and chose to withdraw in the future, and it was unlikely that any new films would choose to be airborne. Sure enough, "Stunt Maniac" starring Commander Gao and Emily Blunt recently announced that it would be rescheduled to May 17.
The rescheduling of "Stunt Maniac", although to a certain extent, has made the May 1st file no longer too crowded. However, ten films such as "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team" and "There is No Thing That Can't Be Solved by a Hot Pot" are still a bit overloaded for the small schedule of May Day, and it is difficult for all the films to release box office space.
Secondly, there is a lack of head films to serve as the leading big brother during the schedule.
In the "Notice of the General Office of the State Council on the Arrangement of Some Holidays in 2020", since the May 1st file came into being, in addition to the impact of the epidemic in 2020 and 2022, the May 1st file exists in name only, the performance of the May 1st file in 2021 and 2023 is remarkable, respectively, there are "On the Cliff" and "Unfamiliar with Life", two films that broke 1 billion, as well as "Your Wedding" and "King of the Sky", two films that broke 800 million.
But at present, only "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team" and "The Siege of the Kowloon Walled City" have received a total box office forecast of more than 400 million from the industry media.
Finally, it's the overlapping genres that lead to audience diversion.
If live-action movies are divided into different genres such as suspense, romance, and crime, then animated films undoubtedly overlap too much, and each film has to face the diversion of the other three films.
The most affected is "The Pig Man Movie". The series of movies has been set for May Day many times, and the box office of a single film has been stable at more than 20 million for three consecutive years, and the highest one is even approaching 80 million, which is second only to "Bear Infested" and "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf".
In previous years, it had almost no competitors in the May 1st file, but in this year's May 1st file, there were three big guys, "Howl's Moving Castle", "Spy Playing House Codename: White" and "Xiaoqian" to grab meat.
Except for "Xiao Qian", which has a certain suspense and horror color, which is not suitable for young audiences, the other two are family films suitable for all ages, which means that the box office space of "Pig Man Movie" will be sharply compressed.
"Howl's Moving Castle", as Miyazaki's old film, has a good reputation, and to a certain extent, it has also inherited the popularity of "What kind of life do you want to live". "Spy Playing Home Codename: White" is the first theatrical version of the IP released in the mainland, thanks to the introduction of "Spy Playing Home" by Station B, the IP has a wide audience among Generation Z. "Xiao Qian" is a new work of light animation, and it is also based on "Strange Tales from Liaozhai", which is a well-known folk ghost story.
If these three films belong to different schedules, it can attract more audiences to buy tickets to enter the theater, but in just a few days, it is too difficult for the audience to watch three animations in a row.
You chase after me, but you don't dare to laugh
At present, there is a week left in the publicity window for May Day.
But whether it is the publicity video of the major filmmakers, or the advertisement in the open and secret, the popularity is very average, and the publicity and distribution data of the major filmmakers are also very bitten, the day before yesterday you reached the top and I caught up with yesterday, it is difficult to say who is "far ahead".
Under this huge competitive pressure, it is difficult for all major filmmakers to show a smile.
The top three films that Maoyan wants to watch are "Howl's Moving Castle", "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Squad" and "Spy Playing House Codename: White", and the top three films that Taopiao wants to watch are still these three, but "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team" takes the lead.
Thanks to the number of fans of Huang Jingyu, Wang Yibo and Yang Mi, "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team" and "There is nothing that can't be solved by a hot pot" are significantly ahead of Weibo popularity.
However, due to the fact that Wang Yibo is not a fan, and his fan base and Huang Jingyu's fan group are obviously fighting, the popularity of "Peacekeeping Explosion-proof Team" is obviously not as good as expected by the industry, and the pre-sale is far from "King of the Sky" and "No Name" starring Wang Yibo.
Yang Mi, Yu Qian, and Tian Yu starred in "There is nothing that can't be solved by a hot pot", because of Yang Mi's hair color and chicken style in the film, it has been on many hot searches.
As an 85 flower, Yang Mi's ability to carry the ratings in TV series is obvious to all, but because of his acting skills, he has been criticized by the audience, and the movies he starred in are often rebellious by fans at the box office on the one hand, and passers-by and audiences on the other hand, rebel and refuse to enter.
The film has been screened in advance at 14:00-17:00 on April 13-14, in Harbin, Changchun, Shenyang, Qingdao, Wuhan and other 20 cities.
And Douyin, which is increasingly known as a battleground for filmmakers, is a different situation.
Zhang Zifeng and Hu Xianxu starred in the youth romance film "Journey Through the Moon", which became the champion with a total of 2 billion views.
But with the collapse of the word-of-mouth of romance films such as "Ten Years of One Taste of Warm Words", it is difficult for the popularity of this type of movie in short videos to be converted into box office, and Zhang Zifeng's love affair has also affected her popularity to a certain extent.
Slightly weaker than "Journey Through the Moon", directed by Zheng Baorui and starring Louis Koo, Sammo Hung, and Ren Xianqi, "The Siege of the Kowloon Walled City" ranked second with 1.988 billion views on Douyin.
When the film was set half a month ago, the popularity of the film on major platforms was very average, but as the film opened the publicity action, the popularity rose rapidly, and on April 11, after the film was selected for the "Midnight Screening" unit of the 77th Cannes International Film Festival, the popularity soared, and there was a posture of winning the championship at any time.
Although the "Midnight Screening" unit is not a competition, the selection can prove to a certain extent that the film's reputation is good.
As a director who is deeply involved in crime films, Zheng Baorui has attracted the popularity of the majority of men. Among the users who want to watch Maoyan, the male group of the film accounts for 61%, and in the Baidu index, the proportion of male groups searching for the film has reached 89%, which is the most attractive male audience among the May Day films.
Judging from the data of the films starring Louis Koo in the past few years, the box office contributed by Guangdong Province often accounts for about 1/5 of the total box office of the film, and "Anti-Drug 3: The End of the World" is even higher than 1/3.
Although the reputation of the "Anti-Corruption Storm" series of movies has always been average, because of donations to build primary schools and other reasons, Principal Gu's name has been very loud on Douyin, and the publicity and distribution methods of "Tomorrow's War" have also effectively increased the total box office.
In the case that the film's reputation is acceptable, if Xuanfa can continue to effectively mobilize the groups that support him, and then dig deep into the largest box office warehouse in Guangdong Province, the film may become Louis Koo's only film with a bumper box office reputation in recent years.
The landlord's family has no surplus food, who can eat enough?
Behind the publicity and pre-sale is the multi-party game of the producers, distributors and promoters behind the films.
"Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team", the main controller of the highest film schedule on May 1st, is Wanda Films, and during the project establishment and filming period, the film has three major flows: Huang Jingyu, Wang Yibo, and Zhang Zhehan.
But with the collapse of Zhang Zhehan's house, the film has undergone a long period of revision, and has changed from a picturesque little life to a backlog of old bacon.
Huang Jingyu, who became popular because of film and television dramas such as "Addiction", "Red Sea Operation" and "Icebreaker Action", failed to undertake Cheng Heat, and gradually fell behind, Wang Yibo has always been the top stream, although it is difficult to satisfy the film in terms of investment and box office ratio, but it has exceeded 800 million, and will continue to cooperate with Cheng Er in the super commercial film "Mermaid".
After several turns, Wanda Film was finally successfully included in the bag of Confucian Films, becoming a member of Ke Liming and Chen Zhixi to expand their film and television territory.
ranked second with 12.7% of the film schedule, is Jia Bing, Tan Zhuo, Xiao Shenyang starring "The End of the Road Crazy Money", the film is controlled by Chaole Infinity, Happy Twist follows the investment, and Maoyan is responsible for distribution and publicity.
As the only traditional comedy, the film gathers many Northeast comedians and Internet celebrities on platforms such as Douyin, but judging from the current materials and audience experience, the "scheduled bad movie" is too high and is not worth too much investment, so we can only hope for the support of the majority of Northeast Lao Tie.
It was followed by two cartoons, "Spy Playing House Codename: White" and "Howl's Moving Castle", due to the introduction rights, the importers of these two films are China Film, but the dominant ones are Road Paintings and Cat's Eye.
The film's premiere on April 20 invited Karina, Bian Jiang and other top anime celebrities, while the rest of the action was not too big, apparently treating the work as a fan movie.
Under the premise that the competition in the May 1st file is so fierce, although the film cannot be as successful as "The Journey of Lingbud", there is absolutely no problem with breaking 100 million.
And "Howl's Moving Castle", as a word-of-mouth work and classic old film directed by Hayao Miyazaki, has a considerable group of fans in China, although it is not as well-known as "Spirited Away", but it may be like "My Neighbor Totoro" and "Castle in the Sky", which successfully exceeded 100 million.
As a model of co-production, "The Siege of the Kowloon Walled City" has both Hong Kong film capital, as well as the participation of mainland film companies such as Lianrui and Taopiaopiao.
The financiers behind "There is No Thing That Can't Be Solved by a Hot Pot" and "A Trip Through the Moon" are all hundreds of dollars. In 2018, He Jianfeng, the young owner of Midea Group, became the actual controller of Baina Qiancheng with 1.8 billion yuan, and then spent hundreds of millions to become the company's largest shareholder.
The company's subsidiary, Wonderful Time, is one of the main producers of "Hello, Li Huanying", but the vision of the electrical faucet in the film market is not vicious, "Hello, Li Huanying" was jointly guaranteed by Maoyan and Confucianism, becoming the first big winner of the Spring Festival stalls that year, and the wonderful time did not earn much.
Coming to this year's May Day, Baina Qiancheng's influence in the film market is still slightly weak, and the two films under the main control are the two with the least number of films in addition to cannon fodder movies.
For example, "Journey Through the Moon", because it is the only romance film in the May 1st file, the film can be regarded as the "first choice for couples to watch movies", and it ranked first with an attendance rate of 3.1% on May 1, but the theater is far from being as optimistic about the film as "Your Wedding", only giving 8.6% of the films, ranking seventh among the May 1st films. It can be seen how much voice Baina Qiancheng has.
"Xiaoqian" produced by Guangguang can be said to be at the bottom in the fields of popularity, film scheduling, and pre-sale, and has basically given up struggling.
There is a specialization in the art industry, and in terms of animated films, you may have to look at its color bar house. In response to shareholders' questions in March this year, Guangguang said that "Nezha's Demon Boy's Mind" is expected to be released within the year, which is the real highlight.
But when it comes to common ground, it can be said that this year's May Day films all focus on the word "poor", and they have not invested too much in publicity and distribution.
The media manager of a 100,000-plus film and television account told the entertainment unicorn that in previous years, even in the confidential stage of the project, the publicity and distribution companies of the major film parties came early to discuss cooperation and finalize the schedule of video and graphics, but this year, several companies said that they had no budget.
In the case that the landlord's family has no surplus grain, who can eat may depend on who invests more.
Alibaba's Taopiao Piao is the producer of "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team", "Journey Through the Moon", "There is No Thing That Can't Be Solved by a Hot Pot", and the co-producer of "The Siege of the Kowloon Walled City", while Alibaba Pictures and Taopiao Piao jointly served as the distributors of the two films.
"You may win, but I will never lose", may be a portrayal of Ali in this May Day gear.
The bell of May 1st gear has been ringing, let's wait and see who the biggest winner is.