International financial markets know early: April 24

【Information Guide】

• Foreign Exchange Bureau: Strengthen the two-in-one management of "macro-prudential + micro-supervision" in the foreign exchange market

•Since the beginning of this year, a total of 29 panda bonds have been issued, with an issuance amount of 66 billion yuan

• The European Parliament voted to approve the Stability and Growth Pact reform bill

• ECB Vice President Guindos: The fight against inflation is coming to an end

• Governor of the Bank of Japan: Monetary policy will depend on the state of the economy and inflation

【Market Information】

•The Theory Study Center Group of the Party Group of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange pointed out in an article published in the People's Daily on the 24th that it is necessary to continuously improve the regulatory capacity and the level of risk prevention under open conditions, and build a "breakwater". Strengthen the two-in-one management of "macro-prudential + micro-supervision" in the foreign exchange market, optimize the monitoring, analysis, evaluation and early warning mechanism of cross-border capital flows, enrich the policy toolbox, and effectively prevent the spillover and impact of international economic and financial risks on the mainland;

•As of April 14, a total of 29 panda bonds have been issued this year, with an issuance amount of 66 billion yuan, an increase of 128.37% over the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, although the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in the United States and Europe have begun to ferment, the expectation that the mainland's monetary policy will remain loose is also strong, and the advantage of low interest rate financing costs of RMB is still expected to continue.

• The European Parliament voted to approve the Stability and Growth Pact reform bill, which limits EU member states' annual fiscal deficits to no more than 3% of their gross domestic product (GDP) and public debt to no more than 60% of GDP.

• ECB Vice President Guindos said that the fight against inflation is coming to an end, with the biggest potential threat coming from services inflation, and that if there are no surprises, a rate cut in June looks like an agreement has been agreed.

ECB Governing Council member Nagel said the ECB could consider cutting interest rates if new forecasts and the latest data confirm that consumer price growth will return to 2%.

• The U.S. Federal Trade Commission will approve a rule that would almost blankly prohibit non-compete clauses, which affect nearly one in five U.S. employees. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has said it plans to file a lawsuit as soon as April 24 if the rule is approved.

• Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that he would not comment on the current foreign exchange fluctuations, closely monitoring the foreign exchange fluctuations with a high sense of urgency, and did not rule out the possibility of taking any measures against excessive foreign exchange fluctuations.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said monetary policy will depend on the economy and inflation, and that spring wage negotiations are always an important macro indicator and that the economy is always checking whether it is operating in line with expectations.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bought a net $8.56 billion in the spot foreign exchange market in February. The RBI said extreme weather could pose a risk to inflation in the near term, and GDP is expected to grow by 7.3% in the fourth quarter of FY2023-24, with strong investment demand driving economic growth.

Eurozone preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 45.6, expected 46.6, March final value 46.1, services PMI preliminary value 52.9, expected 51.8, March final value 51.5, composite PMI preliminary value 51.4, expected 50.7, March final value 50.3.

• Germany's preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 42.2, a new high in nearly 10 months, with an expectation of 42.8 and a final value of 41.9 in March, a preliminary value of 53.3 in the services PMI, an expected 50.5 and a final value of 50.1 in March, and a preliminary composite PMI of 50.5, a new high in nearly two months, with an expectation of 48.5 and a final value of 47.7 in March.

• France's preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 44.9, expected to be 46.9, and the final value in March was 46.2, the preliminary value of the services PMI was 50.5, the expected value was 48.9, and the final value in March was 48.3, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.9, the expected value was 48.8, and the final value in March was 48.3.

• The preliminary value of the UK manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the expected 50.4, the final value in March was 50.3, the preliminary value of the service PMI was 54.9, a new high in the past 11 months, the expected 53.0, the final value in March was 53.1, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.0, the expected value was 52.6, and the final value in March was 52.8.

Japan's preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.9 in April, 48.2 in March, 54.6 in the services PMI, 54.1 in March, and 52.6 in the composite PMI, 51.7 in March.

• The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April was 49.9, with an expectation of 52.0 and a final reading of 51.9 in March, a preliminary service PMI of 50.9, an expectation of 52.0 and a final reading of 51.7 in March, and a preliminary composite PMI of 50.9 with an expectation of 52.0 and a final reading of 56.7 in March.

【Global Market Dynamics】

The Dow Jones rose 0.69% to 38,503.69, the S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 5,070.55 and the Nasdaq rose 1.59% to 15,696.64.

• COMEX gold futures fell 0.46% to $2,335.7, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.39% to $27.35.

• The U.S. oil June contract rose 1.83% to $83.40 a barrel. Brent Oil June contract rose 1.67% to $88.45 a barrel.

• The 2-year Treasury yield fell 3.6 basis points to 4.944%, the 10-year yield fell 0.8 basis points to 4.606%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose 1.4 basis points to 4.73%.

The dollar index fell 0.4% to 105.70, the EURUSD rose 0.44% to 1.0701, the GBPUSD rose 0.8% to 1.2449, the AUDUSD rose 0.58% to 0.6487, the USDJPY fell 0.01% to 154.83 and the USDCHF was unchanged 0% at 0.9120.

【Intraday focus】

• 09:30 Australian Q1 CPI y/y

09:30 Australia's non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY in March

• 16:00 IFO Business Climate Index (April) in Germany

16:00 Switzerland ZEW Investor Confidence Index (April).

18:00 UK CBI Industrial Orders Difference for April

20:30 Canadian retail sales in February MoM

•At 01:30 the next day, the Bank of Canada releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting

Editor: Ma Mengwei

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