After yesterday's weight smashing, today's weight continues to smash, the only difference is that today's small ticket began to strengthen, the gem rose slightly, the micro-cap stock index rose sharply, the main board fell, the yellow line representing the theme on the time-sharing chart is far above the white line representing the weight, and it has risen sharply above the zero axis throughout the day. So although the index fell today, the market money-making effect is not bad, although the stocks are up more and less down, there are less than 300 stocks with an increase of more than 5%. The volume can shrink sharply to 780 billion, and it is obvious that the overall increase in individual stocks is not large.
Since last Thursday, individual stocks have finally risen more and fallen less today, but the index has fluctuated downward. Although everyone is most concerned about the performance of individual stocks, if the index fluctuates and falls and cannot be strengthened, it is a hidden danger after all. Today's rise in small tickets is nothing more than a style switch between short-term weight and subject matter. If the index falls back again, the performance of the entire market will be worse.
Since the end of the week, I have been constantly warning of risks, making it clear that the short-term is easy to fall and difficult to rise. The pre-holiday strategy is very clear, strictly control the position and do not chase the rise, the sharp rise and big rise will come out, and the sharp fall will be started.
The reason for the bearishness is very clear, the performance thunder has entered the final stage, the market risk aversion is heating up, the May Day holiday is approaching, and the big money is mainly retreating. Domestic capital has been retreating, foreign capital is subject to the depreciation of the exchange rate and the uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East, the probability of return at the current point in time is very small, unless the market falls more foreign capital homeopathic copy to the bottom, once it rises and will be thrown out of the trend, after a small return of 1.3 billion yesterday, today there is a net outflow of 2.9 billion. It's obviously an outflow rhythm.
The short-term direction is very clear, don't imagine that the market can suddenly turn around and rise sharply, this probability is too small. Don't try to use a small probability of a rise to see a large probability of a decline. The rise of the market must be driven by money. Only when institutional funds are full of food and drink will the market rise steadily. The main force is flowing out, and the amount of energy is getting smaller and smaller, so what can such a market rise? If it suddenly rises, it is by no means the main force to open a new round of rising market, but a short-term impulsive rising market, and it is not the time for investors to chase up, but the time to go out in the short term.
The new "National Nine Articles" are not a reason for you to charge in the short term, and the increasingly strict supervision of the China Securities Regulatory Commission is not a reason for the market to go long. We must understand the painful period brought about by the market in rebuilding a new system, and we firmly believe in the highlight moment after "chrysalis into a butterfly".
3,000 points is not impregnable, just a layer of window paper. What investors need is the lining and the money-making effect. And the management can only provide face, constantly pulling weights and maintaining the index above 3000 points. However, the logic of the weight rise of Guo Jia's team has changed in the short term, and there has been a continuous adjustment in the near future, and the probability of continuing to pull back in the short term is still very large, and securities, insurance, and wine are difficult to achieve. Naturally, there is no way to stop the market from falling. In this context, the probability of breaking 3000 points in the short term is very high.
Recently, foreign investors have been singing long A-shares, but northbound funds have not bought it at all, and there has been a continuous net outflow. Of course, the biggest short-selling force is naturally domestic capital, if foreign capital is not confident, domestic capital will be even less confident, if foreign capital is full of confidence, how much will stimulate the enthusiasm of domestic capital to do long. It will also hedge against the downside of the market. Under the blows of domestic and foreign capital outflows, it is naturally difficult for the market to get better, not to mention what the market can do to achieve a rise in the current important time window?
1. UBS is high-profile bullish on A-shares, why don't northbound funds appreciate it?
Before the market, UBS publicly upgraded the ratings of A-shares and the Hong Kong stock market to increase allocation, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply for two consecutive days, and A-shares were not affected at all. This is somewhat incomprehensible, and over the weekend the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued five measures for capital market cooperation with Hong Kong. This is naturally good for Hong Kong stocks and A-shares. However, only Hong Kong stocks rose sharply, while A-shares fell. And today, Hong Kong stocks are also rising sharply, what is the reason, is it because UBS looks at Hong Kong stocks, so why are the also optimistic about A-shares not rising?
We are accustomed to the singing of institutions, and we are more accustomed to the singing of foreign capital in recent months. If you just talk a lot and can't put it into action, it makes people feel that this kind of singing has ulterior motives.
Foreign investors will not bring about the rise of the market, on the contrary, if foreign investors are short, it will largely bring about the decline of the market. It must be based on the real changes in the market, rather than being swayed by the short-term news surface.
Why is domestic capital not interested, domestic capital has been firmly shorting, naturally will not be subject to the voice of foreign capital.
The two days of smashing are heavyweight stocks, why the high dividend yield sector has risen too much and suffered from the sell-off of funds, the funds are coming for high dividends, and these companies have not yet reached the ex-dividend date, why did the funds flee. In fact, everyone knows that dividends are meaningless, just a reference for the company's good performance. But if the stock price rises sharply and the wind is not as good as expected, the funds will inevitably lose interest. This is also the reason why the high-dividend sector has fallen in the past two days.
Banks still rose sharply in early trading this morning, and finally rose and fell back, closing slightly higher. Other coal, oil, electricity, and Chinese characters have continued to fall sharply, which is obviously a strong plate of the killing, and the performance of the plate can not hold on, this pattern is very dangerous. The flow of funds to small bills is only a short-term helpless move.
Now the disk change is very troublesome, now itself is speculation performance, but the performance of the board plate because of the rise is too large and take the opportunity to fall, funds can only tentatively flow into some small tickets, but do not dare to large inflows, because small tickets are the future funds to avoid. Large tickets flow out, and small tickets dare not flow in, this market is really troublesome.
2. Why is it that the nine articles of the new country are obviously good for the long-term development of the market and have many favorable policies, but the market does not buy it, and it is still falling and falling?
As I mentioned earlier, this is a short-term painful period, and the regulatory impact on institutions is very large, and there will inevitably be resistance in the short term. In addition, the fundamental reason is that policies that are relevant to the times have not yet been put in place or have not yet been concretized.
First, if the fundamental crux of the market decline has not been resolved, why not ban securities lending and shorting? This is not reasonable in itself, at least everyone can be fair and unanimous, and it cannot become the prerogative of certain institutions. Why not limit short positions in stock index futures or increase margins? This is also a great short-selling force. On one side, Guo Jia's team is protecting the disk, you obviously want to pull the market up, and others are working against you, isn't this consuming the strength of Guo Jia's team, why can't you ban it, why can't you learn from other people's experience?
Second, the above emphasizes that "it is necessary to maintain the dynamic balance of delisting after listing", but there are a large number of junk companies in the problematic market, and they cannot speed up delisting. There are too many stocks in stock right now. Unless you return one, go to one. Only in this way can the ecological balance of the market be maintained. Originally, everyone thought that the new rules on dividends and delisting after the new "National Nine Articles" would increase the intensity of delisting, but the problem was that the delisting compensation mechanism was not solved, and the market was suddenly paralyzed, and the CSRC came out again to say that according to the current standards, only about 30 companies meet the requirements. Obviously, few people believe this statement. In the long run, everyone has no confidence, and they just have to get by.
Third, Guo Jia's team holds five major ETFs of 500 billion, the number is still too small, and it has no momentum, which has an appeal to the market, so that investors who bought at 3,000 points have repeatedly bought and lost confidence. Why didn't the central bank announce that it would provide unlimited liquidity to Guo Jia's team as it did in 2015, or more specifically, that Guo Jia's operating capital could reach 5-10 trillion yuan? Now Guo Jia's team is not bold enough, and always wants to shout slogans to attract institutions and retail investors to enter the market. But institutions, retail investors want to wait for Guo Jia to invigorate the market before entering the market, and now there is a situation where three monks have no water to eat.
Fourth, since the Ministry of Finance has announced that it will "improve the tax system and improve the policies conducive to the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market," why is it not exempted from the income tax on dividends of shareholders who are repeatedly taxed? At present, investors' worries about the need to levy 20 percent income tax on high dividends and the ex-rights of stock prices have been swept away, and the enthusiasm for long-term investment in high-dividend stocks has been strengthened.
We do not deny that a lot of work done by the new village chief after taking office is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the market, but the market has been weak for a long time, and there are still a lot of loopholes to be plugged. The construction of the deficiency must be opened by strict punishment and strict law. We must not be soft on those who violate laws and regulations, and we must not tolerate them. It is necessary to truly deter them so that they do not dare to take half a step beyond the thunder pool, and to improve and perfect the degree of deficiency, we must be reasonable and moderate, and we must neither take too big a step nor stop moving forward. The construction of all systems must be premised on maintaining the interests of investors.
3. Tomorrow is the last trading day and exercise date of ETF options contracts, can the market usher in a turnaround?
Over the weekend, I kept reminding of the risks, and I was not optimistic about the short-term market. The harder you smash, the stronger the rebound. However, due to the constraints of the time window, the overall market has insufficient confidence in longing, and it belongs to the rhythm of fighting and withdrawing.
Although the index has continued to fall recently, it has not fallen below last Wednesday's long white candle. Although the index has fallen today, the stock market is not bad. From my understanding, it is still difficult to have a chance tomorrow, only if there is a sharp fall in the intraday to have a short-term opportunity to do T, the short-term must be fast, once you miss the short-term buying point, it is difficult to participate again.
Short-term continue to be bearish, whether the short-term can participate lies in your level, to be honest, as long as I intraday stocks fall sharply more than two or three points, I will intervene, mainly because there are few positions, flexible attacks, and the short-term occasional quilt is not in a hurry to get out.
Can you make a move tomorrow to see three signals:
1. The small-cap style must be dominant, and the theme must lead the weight, so that you can choose the opportunity to participate.
Second, the index can break 3000 points to grab a short-term rebound, small rises and small falls do not move, of course, if the rapid rise, to sell highs. It is difficult to rise before the holiday.
Third, focus on observing the trend of foreign investment, if the flow of foreign capital is biased, the hot spot is biased towards the theme, the probability of participation will be greater.
Do not change the coil surface, do not chase in operation, and do not worry about sharp falls.