Zhitong Financial APP learned that the "May Day" Golden Week has entered the countdown. On April 23, the "2024 May Day Holiday Travel Vane" report released by Fliggy platform showed that the popularity of booking many services in the domestic tourism market during this year's "May Day" holiday continued to rise, not only greatly exceeding the level of the same period in 2019, but also doubling the number of group tour bookings, and the number of car rental service bookings surging by more than five times. Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanjing, Xi'an, Changsha and more are the top 10 popular destinations for holiday bookings.
At the same time, outbound travel bookings also ushered in a peak, with bookings for related services growing strongly by nearly 100% on top of last year's rapid rebound. According to data from the Fliggy platform, up to now, the number of bookings for international hotels, air tickets and car rentals has exceeded the number of bookings for the May Day holiday last year, showing that tourists are very enthusiastic and highly anticipated for outbound travel.
Among outbound destinations, popular destinations such as Japan and Thailand continue to lead the way, while more distant destinations such as Austria, Turkey and Spain also show a rapid growth in product bookings.
Tuniu predicts that the first wave of travel during this year's May Day holiday is expected to occur on April 27, and some tourists have chosen the "please take 3 days off and 9 off" strategy, that is, take leave or adjust the vacation from April 28 to 30, so as to get a super long holiday of 9 consecutive days from April 28 to May 5. The peak of travel during the May Day holiday is mainly concentrated from April 30 to May 3, and the peak of travel and return is expected to occur on May 1 and May 5 respectively.
Growing market demand is driving a rapid recovery in international flight volumes. As of April 16, the number of air ticket bookings for domestic routes exceeded 2.2 million, an increase of nearly 62% month-on-month, and the number of air ticket bookings for inbound and outbound routes exceeded 690,000, an increase of about 17% month-on-month, according to the big data of the civil aviation travel service platform "Air Travel".
In terms of price, thanks to the recovery of international routes and the improvement of supply, this year's May Day outbound travel is more cost-effective than last year. Fliggy's data shows that during the May Day period, the per capita purchase price of international air tickets fell by 19% year-on-year.
In terms of railways, the May Day holiday railway family visits and tourism flows are intertwined. According to the national railway, on the basis of about 11,000 passenger trains per day on the basic operation map, temporary passenger trains will be added, EMU reconnection will be operated, and general-speed passenger trains will be added to the carriage to maximize passenger seats.
Dongxing Securities released a research report pointing out that the May Day holiday is approaching, and Ctrip, Tongcheng, Qunar and other platforms have released travel booking data reports. At this stage, the demand for travel continues to be released after the epidemic, and the tourism market remains prosperous, especially in the context of the gradual recovery of the overall consumer market, the travel chain is expected to maintain a relative advantage, and the relevant targets of OTA, scenic spots and hotels in the travel industry chain are expected to benefit as a whole. Among them, in the OTA sector, benefiting from the overall recovery of the travel chain, and the recovery of outbound travel and group travel will further provide upward elasticity, the epidemic has accelerated the increase in the online travel rate, and the OTA data has outperformed the overall level of the industry.
According to a research report released by Essence International, the release of demand for family parent-child travel and long-term travel during the May Day holiday is expected to drive the average cost of users to increase, and consumers' preference for cost-effective and characteristic travel will affect the repurchase of company/regional travel orders. It is advisable to pay attention to the number of bookings and price trends of air tickets & hotels. The bank is optimistic about the steady growth prospects of the travel market and the advantages of the OTA platform in expanding the user base and increasing the frequency of user bookings, and is optimistic about Trip.com Group-S (09961/TCOM. US) supply chain advantages and user mentality, Tongcheng Travel (00780) user spending growth and travel agency business incremental contribution.
Related Concept Stocks:
OTA Platforms:
Trip.com Group-S (09961): In late February, Essence International issued a research report saying that it maintained the "buy" rating of Trip.com Group-S, raised the target price to HK$437, repurchased ADSs by US$224 million since September 2023, and announced a US$300 million shareholder return plan (repurchase/cash dividends, etc.), which may provide additional support to the stock price. During the Spring Festival holiday, Ctrip's domestic hotel bookings/air ticket bookings increased by 60%/50% year-on-year, and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings exceeded the 2019 level. In view of the low base effect of the year-on-year performance in January, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the first quarter performance will still be outstanding. In 2024, the company's performance is expected to take advantage of the domestic tourism year and overseas expansion, and large-scale models and content marketing are expected to continue to optimize costs.
Tongcheng Travel (00780): Around mid-April, Jefferies issued a research report saying that it maintained a "buy" rating on Tongcheng Travel, and expected that revenue and non-IFRS earnings in the first quarter of this year were in line with expectations, with a target price of HK $28.2. The bank expects Tongcheng's revenue to rise 44% year-on-year to RMB3.7 billion in the first quarter of this year. Among the core OTAs, accommodation booking service revenue increased by 12% due to the high base effect last year; Transportation ticketing revenue increased by 20% due to the increase in homecoming activities during the Spring Festival; Other income increased by 40%. The gross profit margin of core OTAs is expected to remain at approximately 74.5%, while the gross profit margin of travel is expected to remain at approximately 17.5%. Non-IFRS profit was $502 million.
Hotels:
Shangri-La Asia (00069): Shangri-La Asia recently released its results for the year ended December 31, 2023, with consolidated revenue of US$2.142 billion, an increase of 46.5% year-on-year. Profit attributable to owners of the company was US$184 million, compared with a loss of US$159 million in the same period last year. Earnings per share were US5.17 cents, and a final dividend of HK15 cents per share was proposed.
Huazhu Group-S (01179): In early April, Minsheng Securities issued a research report saying that it maintained the "recommended" rating of Huazhu Group-S, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024-26 is expected to be 44/50/5.4 billion yuan respectively. The company continued to make use of the competitive advantages of product structure, brand effectiveness, and membership system, and the results of cost reduction and efficiency increase at the operational level appeared, and the high performance flexibility began to be realized. As a leading hotel, the company's follow-up performance and operation quality are expected to be further optimized due to the acceleration of store opening in 2024 and strong operational efficiency, the hotel's internal quality improvement and optimization, high-quality development, and continuous integration of membership/supply chain platforms.
Scenic spots:
Fosun Tourism Culture (01992): On April 23, Fosun Tourism Culture announced its results for the first quarter of 2024. During the reporting period, Fosun Tourism's operating turnover was RMB7.158 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The Group's unaudited profit attributable to shareholders of the Company continued to improve in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, thanks to the contribution of core business growth.
China Travel Service Hong Kong (00308): Recently, China Travel Service Hong Kong announced its 2023 results, with a comprehensive revenue of HK $4.494 billion, an increase of 48% over the previous year. Profit attributable to shareholders was HK$240 million, compared to a loss attributable to shareholders of HK$356 million in the previous year. Basic earnings per share was HK4.33 cents, and a final dividend of HK1 cents per share. According to the announcement, the turnaround was mainly due to the significant improvement in the group's operating performance due to the relaxation of travel control and social distancing measures related to the 2019 coronavirus epidemic and the effective implementation of the company's strategy, excluding the impact of the group's provision of land appreciation tax on real estate projects, the profit attributable to shareholders was HK $436 million.