Although the amount of surplus grain at the grassroots level of the domestic wheat market is small year-on-year, grain-using enterprises can reserve and auction grain sources at all levels to meet processing needs. There is still about a month before the new wheat goes on the market, and wheat prices have room to fall under pressure, but due to the small inventory of flour milling enterprises, it is expected that the decline is limited.
Throughout the year, during the period of wheat scarcity from February to the beginning of the new wheat market, the auction of wheat at the lowest purchase price is launched to put grain on the market to ensure supply. However, this year, the minimum purchase price of wheat has not been launched, and only 20,000 tons of wheat in Xinjiang are auctioned every week, reflecting the flexibility of market regulation and control policies. Wheat is the main food variety on the mainland, and the price of wheat is stable, which plays a "ballast stone" role in maintaining economic and social stability, especially stabilizing prices and ensuring people's livelihood. The mainland's grain stocks are abundant, and wheat stocks can meet the consumption demand for one and a half years, so the relevant departments have a lot of room for regulation and control to maintain the stable operation of wheat prices, and it is recommended that market players purchase and sell rationally.
Powder enterprises mainly consume and hoard goods
The willingness to add new inventory is not strong
On April 17, the national standard second-class common wheat entry price: Hebei Shijiazhuang 2690 yuan/ton, Handan 2690 yuan/ton, Hengshui 2690 yuan/ton, Shandong Dezhou 2680 yuan/ton, Jinan 2680 yuan/ton, Heze 2710 yuan/ton, Henan Zhoukou 2700 yuan/ton, Xinxiang 2700 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou 2700 yuan/ton, Anhui Suzhou 2700 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Xuzhou 2720 yuan/ton, week-on-week flat or down 10~30 yuan/ tons, down 50~80 yuan/ton month-on-month, down 160~230 yuan/ton year-on-year. According to the recent news released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sown area of winter wheat in the mainland remained stable, the growth was generally good, and spring plowing and spring sowing were advancing in a steady and orderly manner.
This week, wheat prices continued to fall last week, the main reasons: first, dragged down by the decline in corn prices, wheat prices fell simultaneously; second, after the weather warmed up, it is the traditional off-season for flour consumption, the recent demand for flour and by-products is weak, the operating rate of milling enterprises remains low, the willingness to raise prices to purchase wheat is not strong, and the downstream consumption "lighter in the off-season" suppresses wheat prices; third, reserves at all levels have been rotated out one after another, and the market supply is relatively sufficient; fourth, the new season wheat harvest is expected to be strong, and the market sentiment is more pessimistic.
Last week, the auction turnover rate of wheat from the central reserve showed a gradual upward trend, and the number of wheat auctions put on the market this week decreased compared with last week, and the turnover rate is expected to remain at a high level. At present, the market is bearish, and flour companies mainly consume the previous stockpiles, and the willingness to do inventory is not strong.
A total of 300,000 tons have been put into temporary storage
Transaction prices continued to fall
On April 17, the national temporary storage wheat plan put 20,447 tons, the actual transaction was 18,671 tons, the turnover rate was 91.31%, a significant increase of 37 percentage points from the previous period, the highest transaction price was 2,420 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price was 2,210 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 2,341.3 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous period.
Xinjiang national temporary storage wheat since January 3 this year, the first phase of the start, has been put into 15 consecutive periods, the weekly volume remains at about 20,000 tons, but the turnover rate between the weeks is large, 15 of the 3 phases of the turnover rate of more than 80%, 2 phases of the turnover rate of 20%, 10 phases of the turnover rate of 20% ~ 80%. The average transaction price also changed greatly, the highest transaction price appeared on February 28, the average transaction price was 2663 yuan / ton, when the price of ordinary wheat in the main producing areas also fell for a month and then rushed back to the top of the stage, and the transaction price of temporary storage wheat also reflected the market mentality at that time.
However, overall, among the 15 auctions, only two phases have an average transaction price of more than 2,600 yuan/ton, and most of them are concentrated around 2,560 yuan/ton. Since late March, affected by the sluggish price of wheat, the auction price of temporary storage wheat has dropped to about 2,420 yuan/ton, and the latest transaction price has fallen below 2,350 yuan/ton. Judging from the announcement issued by the National Grain Trading Center, the national temporary storage wheat auction will still be held next week, and it is expected that the transaction price of ordinary wheat will continue to decline in the later auction.
Flour bran fell sharply
The start-up of powder enterprises remained low
On April 17, the ex-factory price of bran in milling enterprises: 1410 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 1430 yuan/ton in Jinan, Shandong, 1450 yuan/ton in Zhengzhou, Henan, 1450 yuan/ton, 1450 yuan/ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 1450 yuan/ton, down 120~170 yuan/ton week-on-week, and 670~710 yuan/ton year-on-year. Bran prices continued to fall at low levels, mainly due to the recent weak feed farming market, which weighed on demand for by-products. However, after the current bran price fell to 1,400 yuan/ton, flour enterprises raised the price of bran in the case of a decline in start-up and a decrease in bran output, and it is expected that the price of bran will fluctuate in a narrow range in the current price range in the later period.
This week, flour prices fell sharply week-on-week, weighed down by weak demand. On April 17, the ex-factory price of special flour of milling enterprises: 3200 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 3200 yuan/ton in Beijing-Tianjin, 3180 yuan/ton in Jinan, Shandong, 3180 yuan/ton, 3180 yuan/ton in Taiyuan, Shanxi, 3160 yuan/ton in Zhengzhou, Henan, 3160 yuan/ton, 3160 yuan/ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 3140 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week-on-week, down 60~140 yuan/ton year-on-year.
Affected by the sharp decline in the price of flour and by-products, the theoretical milling profits of flour enterprises declined. Monitoring shows that on April 17, the average theoretical milling profit of milling enterprises in the Huanghuai region of North China was 9 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton week-on-week and 65 yuan/ton month-on-month. Among them, Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province is 20.7 yuan/ton, Jinan in Shandong is 18.9 yuan/ton, and Zhengzhou in Henan Province is -12.9 yuan/ton. Affected by the sluggish demand for flour consumption, the operating rate of enterprises remained low. On April 17, the operating rate of the surveyed flour enterprises was 40%, flat week-on-week, and down 2 percentage points month-on-month, of which the operating rate of large enterprises was 50%~80%, and the operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises was 20%~50%. (This article was originally published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on April 20, 2024)
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